MLB DFS 9/4/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, while also ranking ninth in team batting average and OPS. They have been a better offense at home, where they own a .280 average with a .473 slugging percentage and an .815 OPS. The Rockies are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in Colorado, as well. They are -187 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
The Rockies get a matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, who has thrown well this season. He owns a 6-2 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP through 16 games (14 starts). He also owns a 0.5 HR/9 with a 7.1 K/9 through 91 innings this season. Rodriguez has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .210 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .282 wOBA. Most importantly, Rodriguez owns a 4.17 xFIP and a 4.31 SIERA this season, suggesting he will see regression as the season continues. The Rockies own an elite offense at home, and they can take advantage of this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Cleveland Indians have featured an elite offense this season. Through 137 games, they rank third in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while ranking sixth in team batting average. They have featured an elite offense at home, where they are hitting .267 with a .447 slugging percentage and a .787 OPS. Cleveland is also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game at home this season. They are currently -230 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Cleveland gets a great matchup against Danny Duffy tonight. He has struggled through 27 starts this season, recording an 8-11 record with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9, while recording an 8.2 K/9 through 154.1 innings. Duffy has struggled quite a bit against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .258 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He has also struggled in three matchups against Cleveland this season. In those games, he has allowed 18 earned runs (three home runs) over 15 innings. The Indians offense is at its best when playing at home, and they make an elite stacking option on this slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have featured an average offense this season, ranking 12th in the MLB in runs scored, while also ranking 15th in team batting average and OPS. They have been a significantly better offense on the road, posting a .253 average with a .434 slugging percentage and a .761 OPS through 70 road games. They are averaging 4.9 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. The Cardinals are small underdogs tonight, but they still feature an implied run total of 4.7 runs.
Erick Fedde will be taking the mound for the Washington Nationals tonight. He has struggled through six starts, recording a 1-3 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He has also posted a 1.8 HR/9 with a 6.9 K/9 through 28 innings this season. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .362 average with a .596 slugging percentage and a .413 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .296/.500/.372 line this season. The Cardinals feature a high upside offense, especially on the road, and they will feature low ownership on a 15 game slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Gallo always comes with tremendous power, as he’s featuring a 37.4% home run rate this season. He has also found success against left-handed pitching, recording a .558 slugging percentage and a .333 ISO against lefties. Gallo owns 47% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Turner is hitting .405 with a .784 slugging percentage and a 1.295 OPS over his last 10 games. He also possesses 55% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Turner makes a great option against left-handed pitching, as well, posting a .598 slugging percentage and a .241 ISO against lefties in 2018.
Dozier gets a tough matchup tonight, but he enters this game with a 0.115 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. He has also caught fire recently, hitting .359 with a .769 slugging percentage and a 1.150 OPS over his last 10 games. He features 61% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Voit continues his hot streak, hitting .344 with four home runs over his last 10 games. He owns 50% hard-hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. Voit has also posted a .743 slugging percentage and a .429 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Grichuk has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, recording 0.038 wOBA and 0.132 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has been on fire recently, as well, hitting .424 with a .758 slugging percentage and a 1.245 OPS over his last 10 games. He features 43% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over that span, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Musgrove has quietly been throwing well this season, posting a 5-8 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through 16 starts. He has allowed a 1.0 HR/9, while recording a 7.4 K/9 through 97 innings, as well. Musgrove has scored double digit fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, including a 28.8 DK point performance against the Chicago Cubs. He’s a -146 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponent an implied run total of 3.9 runs.
Musgrove gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average offense in team wOBA. Musgrove has thrown well against right-handed batters, holding them to a .238 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .280 wOBA. He has struggled at times in Pittsburgh this season, but he has allowed only two earned runs over his last 14 home innings. He’s a relatively safe option that comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kratz has been heating up a bit recently, hitting .270 with a .351 slugging percentage and a .659 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns a 64% hard-hit rate with a 100 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Kratz has been a slightly more powerful option against left-handed pitching, as well, posting a 0.004 ISO differential against lefties.
He gets a good matchup against Mike Montgomery, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .278 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. Kratz is only hitting eighth in the Brewers lineup, but he has been a consistent option with upside recently. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Reyes has caught fire over his last 10 games, but his price tag has not caught up. Over that span, he’s hitting .379 with a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.455 OPS. He owns six home runs and 10 RBIs in those games. He also features 50% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has dominated left-handed pitching with 0.131 wOBA and 0.118 ISO differentials against lefties, as well.
Reyes gets a great matchup against Robbie Ray tonight. Ray is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA this season. Reyes is hitting sixth in the Padres offense, and he’s arguably the most mispriced player on the slate. He can safely be used in all leagues.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)