Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have featured an up and down offense this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in team batting average, and 17th in OPS. They have performed well on the road, where they are hitting .247 with a .407 slugging percentage and a .721 OPS. The Angels are averaging 4.5 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game away from home this season, as well. Los Angeles is currently a -118 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
The Angeles get an elite matchup against Bartolo Colon tonight. He has been struggling over his last 10 starts, posting a 3-7 record with a 6.18 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in those games. He also owns a 1.5 HR/9 with a 4.4 K/9 through his last 59.2 innings. Colon has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .291 average with a .602 slugging percentage and a .379 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .262/.440/.319 line this season. I don’t fully expect there to be only one chalk team tonight, but Los Angeles is a team that should feature plenty of ownership.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Colorado Rockies continue to perform well, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking eighth in OPS through 138 games. They have also featured an elite offense at home, posting a .280 average with a .475 slugging percentage and an .819 OPS in Colorado. The Rockies are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. They are -149 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Andrew Suarez, who owns a 3-4 record with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9 with a 6.7 K/9 over his last 55.1 innings. Suarez has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to record a .284 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .307/.494/.368 line. The Rockies feature one of the best offenses in the Majors when playing in Colorado, and this is an elite matchup. They should feature some ownership, but they make a great option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled at times this season. Through 139 games, they rank 19th in the MLB in runs scored, 10th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. They have found some success at home, where they are hitting .255 with a .397 average and a .722 OPS. The Pirates are also averaging 4.1 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in Pittsburgh. They are -195 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, as well, featuring an implied run total of 5.1 runs tonight.
Homer Bailey will be taking the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. He has been struggling recently, posting an 0-8 record with a 6.62 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He has also allowed a 1.9 HR/9 with a 7.1 K/9 through his last 53 starts. Bailey has struggled against everyone this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .303 average with a .585 slugging percentage and a .390 wOBA, while righties hit for a .312/.518/.371 line this season. This is an elite matchup for the Pirates, and they make one of the best stacking options on the slate tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Chirinos’ numbers don’t stick out on paper, but he owns 61% hard-hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over his last seven games. He has also found success against right-handed pitching this season, recording a .431 slugging percentage and a .213 ISO against righties in 2018.
Voit continues to impress, hitting .333 with five home runs over his last 10 games. He has also posted 51% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Voit has also posted an elite .769 slugging percentage and a .462 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Ohtani has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he features 0.167 wOBA and 0.225 ISO differentials against righties. He’s hitting .364 with an .818 slugging percentage and a 1.258 OPS over his last 10 games, as well. Ohtani has also posted a 37.5% home runs rate in those games.
Chapman gets a tough matchup tonight, but he’s hitting .317 with four home runs over his last 10 games. He owns 47% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Chapman has also posted a .550 slugging percentage and a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
McKinney will be recommend twice in this article. I’ll talk about his recent success below, so there’s no need to go over that here. McKinney will be playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight, where he has recorded each of his three home runs this season. Overall, he owns an .826 slugging percentage and Toronto through nine games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Leake has struggled at times this season, posting an 8-9 record with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP through 27 starts. He has held his opponents to a 1.2 HR/9, while posting a 5.7 K/9 through 165 innings, as well. Leake has also flashed tremendous upside, recently scoring 28.2 DK points against the Oakland A’s. Leake is a -215 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.2 runs tonight.
He gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last in team wOBA. Leake has been a better option against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .279 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .306 wOBA. He is a relatively safe option, who also comes with tremendous upside for his price tag. Leake is a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
McKinney has looked outstanding in limited opportunities this season, posting a .360 average with a .640 slugging percentage and a 1.081 OPS through 16 games. He owns eight extra-base hits (three home runs) and 10 RBIs in those games. McKinney also possesses a 46% hard-hit rate with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also dominates right-handed pitching, posting 0.055 wOBA and 0.122 ISO differentials against righties.
McKinney gets a matchup against Tyler Glasnow, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .200 average with a .347 slugging percentage and a .292 wOBA. McKinney is leading off for the Blue Jays, and he makes a consistent option with tremendous upside. He can safely be considered in all leagues tonight.
Gurriel has been struggling on paper recently, hitting only .195 with little power over his last 10 games. With that being said, he also owns a 37% hard-hit rate with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Gurriel has also found more success against right-handed pitching, recording 0.044 wOBA and 0.06 ISO differentials against righties.
I have already outlined Tyler Glasnow above, so I will not do that again. Gurriel is expected to hit second in the Toronto lineup. Even with his recent struggles, he has found ways to produce fantasy points on a fairly consistent basis. He’s a great salary relief option that makes a great pair with McKinney.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)