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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Houston Astros will make up the “Chalk Stack” once again tonight. They have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB, leading the league in team batting average and OPS. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored and fourth in home runs through 144 games. Houston has been at their best at home, where they are hitting for a .283 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .866 OPS through 72 games. They are averaging 6.1 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Astros are currently -176 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
Houston gets a matchup against Mike Fiers, who has thrown well through 29 starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 14-3 record with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he also owns a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.22 SIERA. Fiers has struggled with a 38.8% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 12.2% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 38.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.7% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 16.7% strikeout and 7.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Fiers has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .252 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .290 wOBA. He has also given up a .226/.396/.300 line to right-handed batters. Furthermore, Fiers has given up a .253/.397/.304 line on the road in 2019. It’s a small slate, and Houston makes the top stack tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have found plenty of offensive success through 144 games this season. They currently rank second in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, fourth in team batting average, and third in OPS. The Yankees have surprisingly found more success on the road in 2019, where they boast a .274 average with a .504 slugging percentage and a .849 OPS through 69 games. They are also averaging 6.2 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. New York is a -113 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.9 runs tonight.
The Yankees get an interesting matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. He has thrown well in 2019, recording a 17-5 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through 29 starts. He has also posted a 4.30 xFIP and a 4.53 SIERA in those starts. Rodriguez has held his opponents to a 31.9% fly ball rate, while giving up a 14.2% soft hit rate. He has also posted 28.9% hard hit and 24% soft hit rates this season. He enters this game with 23% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates. Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to post a .265 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. He has allowed right-handed batters to record a .254/.385/.308 line against him this season, as well. Rodriguez has found significantly more success at home in 2019, but his 4.47 xFIP suggests that he’s due for regression in Boston. He’s also due for regression against right-handed batters, making this somewhat of an elite matchup for New York. They do come with some risk, but they are a high upside tournament stack tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Quantrill has seen mixed results in 2019, posting a 6-6 record with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 20 games (15 starts). His numbers are backed by a 4.61 xFIP and a 4.61 SIERA. Quantrill has allowed his opponents to post 36% fly ball and 12% HR/FB rates against him. He has also given up a 41.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 14.2% soft hit rate this season. Quantrill brings 19.6% strikeout and 10.3% swinging strike rates into this game, though. He’s a +132 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.7 runs.
Quantrill gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who strikeout at an average rate on this slate. They also rank fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Quantrill has held right-handed batters to a .192 average with a .295 slugging percentage and a .218 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .250/.385/.298 line at home this season. He isn’t the safest option on the slate, but he’s an elite tournament option for a low price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Cano has performed well since returning from injury, as he’s averaging 11.8 DraftKings (DK) points per game in those four contests. He’s also averaging a healthy 15.7 DK points in his three starts. Cano boasts 80% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 101 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.05 wOBA and 0.13 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Cano gets a plus matchup against Merrill Kelly, who has struggled with a 5.73 xFIP on the road this season. He has also been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .291 average with a .470 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. He has given up a .277/.488/.350 line on the road, as well. Cano is expected to hit fifth in the New York Mets lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)