Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Castillo looked elite for the Cincinnati Reds in a shortened 2020 season. He posted a 4-6 record with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 12 starts. His numbers were backed by a 2.82 xFIP and a 3.35 SIERA. Castillo boasted elite 30.5% strikeout and 15.4% swinging-strike rates last season. He also held his opponents to a 4.5% barrel rate. Castillo was best at home last season, where he posted a 2.46 xFIP, although he found plenty of success on the road, as well. He was also nearly untouchable against right-handed batters, recording a 1.81 xFIP and a 34.5% strikeout rate against them last season.
Castillo gets a plus matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeout per at-bat, while ranking as an average offense in terms of team wOBA. Castillo is essentially in a pick‘em in a game set at 7.5 runs, and San Francisco owns an implied team total of 3.8 runs tonight. Castillo looked awful in his first start of the season before posted 26.8 fantasy points against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s ridiculously priced on this slate, which will garner some ownership. With that being said, there are a number of elite arms and mispriced options tonight, meaning Castillo will go under-owned compared to most slates.
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