Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Zack Wheeler
Wheeler threw at an elite level for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2020. He posted a 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. His ERA was backed by a 3.76 xFIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Wheeler surprisingly owned an 18.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.8% swinging-strike rate last season. He held his opponents to a 3.8% barrel rate, as well. Wheeler boasted similar advanced metrics against either handedness, although his strikeout rate increased against right-handed batters. He was also better on the road, where he posted a 3.53 xFIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Wheeler gets an interesting matchup against the New York Mets tonight. New York ranks second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while featuring roughly an average offense in terms of team wOBA. Wheeler’s a -114 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving the Mets an implied team total of 3.9 runs. He’s coming off of a bad game after posting 39.2 fantasy points in his first start of the season. Wheeler’s advanced metrics suggest he’s throwing at an elite level, though. He’s far too cheap for his talent, although he’s likely to go overlooked because of the other spots on this slate. Wheeler will certainly garner some ownership on this slate, but it will be far too little for his talent.
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