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MLB DFS – Bales’ Top GPP Play (4/27/21)

Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.

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Frankie Montas 

Montas took a major step back for the Oakland A’s last season. He posted a 3-5 record with a 5.60 ERA, and a 1.51 WHIP over 11 starts. He was due for positive regression, though, as he owned a 4.36 xFIP and a 4.40 SIERA. Montas enjoyed 25.3% strikeout and 11.7% swinging-strike rates in 2020. He did allow a 7.8% barrel rate. Unsurprisingly, Montas’ been slightly worse on the road throughout his career, where he owns a 4.28 xFIP. He performs better against right-handed batters, holding them to a 3.73 xFIP. 

Montas gets a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they boast an above-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Montas is a -115 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, giving Tampa Bay an implied team total of 4.2 runs. Montas has been a boom or bust option, scoring 21.3 and 29.7 fantasy points in 2 of his 4 games, while scoring negative fantasy points in the other 2 games. His advanced metrics look fine, and he’s due for positive regression as the season continues. Montas isn’t safe enough for cash games tonight, but he’s an elite tournament option on this slate.

 

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