Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Peralta’s coming off of an outstanding season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He posted a 3-1 record with a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP over 15 games (1 start). He boasted a 3.23 xFIP and a 2.81 SIERA in those games, as well. Peralta recorded elite 37.6% strikeout and 15.7% swinging-strike rates last season. He did allow a 7.9% barrel rate to his opponents, though. Peralta boasted similar advanced metrics at home and on the road last season. He was significantly better against right-handed batters, though, as he held them to a 2.59 xFIP in 2020.
Peralta gets a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while featuring an above-average team wOBA. The Vegas line hasn’t been set for this game, although I expect it to one of the lowest totals on the slate. Peralta’s seen mixed results this season, as he doesn’t generally throw deep into games. With that being said, he boasts double-digit strikeout upside on any given night. He’ll go overlooked because of his price, matchup, and the size of this slate, but his upside is undeniable, especially in a matchup featuring plenty of right-handed batters.
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