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MLB DFS – Bales’ Top GPP Play (5/1/21)

Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.

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Dustin May

May enjoyed a solid 2020 season for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 3-1 record with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 12 games (10 starts). He was due for regression, though, as he posted a 3.98 xFIP and a 4.29 SIERA. May struggled with 19.6% strikeout and 8.4% swinging-strike rates last season. He held his opponents to a 6.7% barrel rate, though. Throughout his short career, May’s seen nearly identical advanced numbers at home or on the road. He’s held right-handed batters to a 3.06 xFIP, but his strikeout rate increases to 25.1% against lefties. 

May gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. May is a -128 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving the Brewers an implied team total of 3.6 runs. This young pitcher has taken a step forward this season, posting a 1.65 xFIP with a 37.2% strikeout rate through 4 starts. He’s flashed elite upside with 29.7 and 31.1 fantasy point performances this season. May will garner ownership tonight, but he’s surprisingly not projecting to be one of the chalkier options.

 

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