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MLB DFS – Bales’ Top GPP Plays (9/16/20)

Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here

 

Brady Singer

Singer has seen mixed results in 2020, striking out 44 batters while allowing 25 earned runs over 48.1 innings. His 4.66 ERA is backed by a 4.19 xFIP and a 4.41 SIERA. He boasts 21.8% strikeout and 9.7% swinging-strike rates through 9 games. Singer also boasts a 52.9% ground ball rate in 2020. He has been slightly better on the road in the Majors, recording a 4.16 xFIP through 33.2 road innings. Most importantly, he boasts a 3.03 xFIP against right-handed batters this season. 

Singer gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as a slightly below-average offense in team wOBA. Singer is currently a -135 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Tigers an implied team total of only 4.0 runs. He flashed in his last game, scoring 36.2 fantasy points in an eight-inning one-hitter against the Cleveland Indians. Singer looks to be going overlooked in favor of Lance McCullers on this slate but I prefer the former for lower ownership. He’s a great tournament option. 

Brandon Belt

Belt has been relatively cold in recent games, hitting for a .185 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs. Belt has looked elite against right-handed pitching in 2020, posting a .340 average with a .638 slugging percentage and a 1.064 OPS. He also enters this game with a .445 wOBA and a .298 ISO against righties this season. 

Belt gets a solid matchup against Ljay Newsome tonight. Newsome has thrown well in limited innings but I don’t expect him to find continued success. He’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .250 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .289 wOBA over. Belt is expected to hit fourth in the San Francisco Giants lineup and he comes with plenty of upside in an offense that has surprised quite a bit people in 2020. His price tag is far too low for his upside on this slate, and he’s a player that can be used in all leagues, although he’s best suited for tournaments tonight. 

Hanser Alberto

Alberto is another hitter that has been struggling, as he posted a .189 average with a .189 slugging percentage and a .400 OPS over his last 10 games. He doesn’t boast any extra-base hits over that span but he does own one RBI and one stolen base. Alberto has been more successful against left-handed pitching,, recording a .351 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .862 OPS this season. He also brings a .367 wOBA and a .135 ISO against lefties into this game. 

Alberto gets a good matchup against Cole Hamels, who will be making his 2020 debut tonight. Last season, Hamels allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .259 average with a .416 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. He also struggled on the road, giving up a .295/.444/.344 line to his opponents. Alberto is currently expected to lead off for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has been a relatively consistent option on the season and will benefit from playing in Baltimore’s hitter-friendly stadium tonight. 

Hunter Dozier

Dozier has been playing well recently, recording a .289 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .807 OPS over his last 10 games. He posting two extra-base hits (one home run), two RBIs, and one stolen base in those games. Dozer looked great against left-handed pitching last season, hitting for a .281 average with a .545 slugging percentage and a .915 OPS. He also ended 2019 with a .376 wOBA and a .265 ISO against lefties. 

Dozier gets a matchup against Tarik Skubal, who has struggled early in his MLB career. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .314 average with a .608 slugging percentage and a .413 wOBA. Dozier is expected to hit fifth in the Kansas City Royals lineup and still comes with a reasonable price tag on this slate. He’s outfield and first base eligible, making him an outstanding option with a number of first basemen in great spots on this slate. 

Alex Dickerson

Dickerson has limited at-bats over his last 10 games but owns a .280 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .813 OPS in those contests. Over that span, he owns three extra-base hits (one home runs) and three RBIs. Dickerson is hitting for a .271 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .880 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He enters this game with a .364 wOBA and a .262 ISO against righties, as well. 

Dickerson gets a matchup against Ljay Newsome, who has already been outlined in the Brandon Belt recommendation. Dickerson is currently expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup. He’s a player that generally goes overlooked because San Francisco is willing to pinch-hit for him if a left-handed pitcher comes in from the bullpen. Still, he comes with quite a bit of upside and can be used in GPPs on this slate. 

 

SuperDraft

Willie Calhoun (1.75x)

Calhoun was struggling before his hamstring injury and didn’t record a hit in his first game back. He flashed against right-handed pitching in 2019, though, recording a .290 average with a .536 slugging percentage and a .881 OPS. He also posted a .366 wOBA and a .246 ISO against righties last season, suggesting he comes with significantly more upside than he has flashed in 2020. 

Calhoun gets an interesting matchup against Lance McCullers Jr. tonight. McCullers has thrown well at home this season but he’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .236 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. Calhoun is expected to hit second in the Texas Rangers lineup. He gets a 1.75x multiplier on SuperDraft, making him a solid tournament option tonight. 

 

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