Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
J.A. Happ
Happ has seen mixed results this season, allowing 16 earned runs while striking out 30 batters over 36.1 innings. He has also recorded a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.84 SIERA through 7 starts. He enters this game with 20.7% strikeout and 9.5% swinging-strike rates this season. Happ has been better on the road, where his xFIP dips to 4.12 in 2020. He has also been at his best against left-handed batters, who he has held to a 3.26 xFIP throughout limited games this season.
Happ gets a solid matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as a below-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Happ is a -215 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving the Red Sox an implied team total slightly under 4.0 runs tonight. Happ has quietly posted 24.7 and 26.7 fantasy points in 2 of his last 4 games. He has also posted an xFIP under 3.00 in each of his last 4 games after struggling to start the season. Happ is surprisingly expensive on this slate, keeping his ownership low with plenty of other options around. He threw well against Boston in their only matchup and he makes a solid GPP play tonight.
Nate Lowe
Lowe has been playing well in recent games, hitting for a .343 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a 1.070 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (three home runs), five RBIs, and three stolen bases in those games. Lowe has been a reverse splits hitter in 2020 but he’s still hitting for a .256 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .872 OPS against righties. He also owns a .365 wOBA and a .273 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Lowe gets a great matchup against Jorge Lopez tonight. Lopez has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .291 average with a .564 slugging percentage and a .379 wOBA in 2020. He’s also due for regression at home. Lowe is expected to hit fourth in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and he’s a player that will benefit greatly from playing in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB. He’s far too cheap on this slate, making him one of the top options on the board.
Erik Gonzalez
Gonzalez has been ice cold recently, posting a .114 average with a .171 slugging percentage and a .310 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits and two stolen bases over that span. Gonzalez has looked great against left-handed pitching, though, hitting for a .306 average with a .611 slugging percentage and a .953 OPS against lefties this season. He boasts a .395 wOBA and a .306 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2020, as well.
Gonzalez gets an interesting matchup against Kwang Hyun Kim on this slate. Kim has held right-handed batters to a .159 average with a .244 slugging percentage and a .195 wOBA but he’s due for significant regression in all facets of his game. Gonzalez is expected to lead off for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight and he comes with plenty of upside in that role. Even with regression looming, I struggle to consider the Pirates a great stacking option. Instead, I’d rather use Gonzalez as a one-off in tournaments.
Avisail Garcia
Garcia has caught fire in recent games, recording a .382 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .875 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns four extra-base hits, three RBIs, and one stolen base. Garcia has posted an elite .366 average with a .585 slugging percentage and a 1.085 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He also enters this game with a .456 wOBA and a .220 ISO against lefties.
Garcia gets a matchup against Kris Bubic, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .254 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. He’s also given up a .283/.500/.367 line on the road and will be throwing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. Garcia is expected to lead for the Milwaukee Brewers, as well. He comes with a cheap price tag but is extremely cheap and boasts plenty of upside because of his speed.
David Peralta
Peralta has posted a .317 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .878 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded four extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs in those contests. Peralta has been at his best against right-handed pitching this season, as he’s hitting for a .296 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .790 OPS against righties. He also brings a .339 wOBA and a .156 ISO against right-handed pitching into this game tonight.
Peralta gets a matchup against Christian Javier tonight. Javier has held left-handed batters to a .238 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA in 2020, although he’s another pitcher that’s due for regression. Peralta is only expected to hit sixth in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup tonight, keeping his ownership down. He has flashed in recent games and we could see that once again on this slate.
SuperDraft
Yoshi Tsutsugo (1.8x)
Tsutsugo is only hitting for a .194 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .605 OPS over his last 10 games. He does own four extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs over that span, though. Surprisingly, Tsutsugo is only hitting for a .180 average with a .390 slugging percentage and a .687 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He also has posted a .299 wOBA and a .210 ISO against righties in 2020.
Tsutsugo gets a plus matchup against Jorge Lopez, who has already been outlined in the Nate Lowe recommendation. Tsutsugo is currently expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays and he boasts a 1.8x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s a great tournament option on this slate.
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