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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (4/30)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses this data along with the player pool that is available with our premium package. You can find that here, in our Premium Core Plays

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Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, BetKarma, which has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access ALL odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here > BetKarma Live MLB Trends

 

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Gerrit Cole- Cole gets a juicy matchup with Detroit today. Cole has a career-best k% and bb% to start the season. It is a small sample size, but worth noting how locked in he is on the mound today. Top 5% in wOBA and xwOBA. This Detroit lineup has a 30% K rate. I can’t overstate it enough how elite of a matchup this is. I will be looking forward to rostering Cole on every single team I make today.

Andrew Heaney- DraftKings has made it very difficult for us not to play Heaney today. Heaney has taken a massive step forward this year and dominated the Houston Astros in his last outing. Somehow, someway, DraftKings kept Heaney down at $6,800 for today’s slate. I will be prioritizing Heaney and Cole in cash today.

Shane Bieber- Bieber is the other spend-up pitcher on today’s slate. Bieber has a more difficult matchup than Heaney or Cole, so he’s better suited for tournaments. Bieber is a guy that we like to play regardless of matchup. He went head to head with Cole last weekend and it was a show. I like this White Sox team a ton, but it’s undeniable that they have a good amount of Ks in their lineup and Bieber is insanely talented.

Other GPP Targets: Darvish, McCullers, Eovaldi

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Travis d’Arnaud- d’Arnaud will hit in the middle of the Braves lineup today. I love playing him versus lefties. He looks like the spend up for me today if I am not saving. But I do plan on saving.

Danny Jansen- This is likely the route I go in cash today, Jansen is stone minimum for a team with a 5.5 team total. I don’t care how poorly he has hit this season. He gives you the flexibility to spend at Pitching, while also getting an elite stack. Jansen will be chalky, but he’s worth it today.

1B

Vladimir Guerrero Jr- This ballpark is one that we need to target. The Blue Jays have the highest total on the slate and it’s for good reason. Casual fly balls are home runs in this small ballpark. Vlad has been on an absolute tear, he is expensive but because of Heaney, you can get to these spend-up bats. I will be invested in the Blue Jays and Vlad is a priority.

Matt Duffy- Duffy was the chalk last night and he worked out in a big way. I will be investing in him again tonight if he is in the heart of the Cubs order. Duffy is cheap and can be a pivotal piece to getting some Yankees and Blue Jays into your lineup.

2B

Ozzie Albies- Albies gets to play in an elite hitting environment tonight versus a homerun-prone pitcher in Robbie Ray. Ray has a ton of K upside, but when he gives up contact it’s extremely hard and usually in the air. The casual fly ball that Ray gives up is a homerun in this park.

DJ LeMahieu- Insane wind today at Yankee Stadium. There are heavy winds blowing out to the short porch in right. The Yankees are a team we like to target against left-handed pitching. DJ will be fairly low owned so he’s a good place to get contrarian off of the chalk.

3B

Gio Urshela- Gio is going to be the mega chalk again today. DraftKings refuses to raise his price and he has been one of the better hitters for the Yankees this season. Urshela has an elite hard-hit % and will look to continue his success against a lefty with the wind blowing out.

Kris Bryant- Bryant has been a lot better vs left-handed-pitching over the course of his career. I think that an interesting mini correlation today is Duffy and Bryant if they are hitting near each other in the order. The wind is blowing out to right at the Great American SMALLpark!

SS

Bo Bichette- Bichette continues to perform during this breakout campaign. He has not only been great overall, but timely hitting has really helped him produce in fantasy. He gets protection with Vlad hitting behind him, so look for him to get a lot of opportunity and quality pitches.

Trevor Story- The Rockies don’t have the most attractive team total today. Story has a career of success not only vs lefties but vs MadBum in particular. I like Story as a one-off option that will likely go under-owned today.

OF

Ronald Acuna Jr.- As you can see, I really do want to have exposure to this Braves/Blue Jays game tonight. I think Acuna is the best hitter in baseball right now. Acuna has the power and speed combination that we want when we are investing in high-priced players. He needs a lot to pay off this salary, but I think this is a perfect night to chase his upside.

George Springer- Springer is back!!! We will be playing Springer a lot this season in this ballpark. Particularly against left-handed pitchers, Springer is awesome over the course of his career. With a massive team total and platoon advantage, Springer is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate.

Yankees OF- Is anyone seeing the ball better at the plate than Stanton right now? He seems to be hitting baseballs that go over 110 MPH in every single appearance. I will keep playing him while he’s locked in. Judge is interesting today, I think the Yankees go under-owned and with this wind, it will be a spot we want to take advantage of.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

Today’s highest owned stack will be the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are in an elite hitting environment vs a left-handed pitcher that struggles to get people out. I like getting the premium pieces of Springer and Vlad. The value piece of this stack is Danny Jansen and potentially Lourdes Gurriel for 3.4k.

You can always gain leverage by taking the underdog that is in the elite environment. People see the team total difference of a half point and take it as gospel. Not only will the Braves be lower owned, but they possess elite hitters throughout their lineup. The Braves started slow, but they are an offense that I am bullish on long term. I want to be invested in this dangerous lineup.

The NYY are the team I think gives you the most leverage today. This wind is insane in New York today, if that ball gets up there it won’t take much for it to leave the yard. The short porch in right is already a hitting advantage, now we have wind!!! I want to be in on the Yankees.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

ATL – Acuna/Freeman/Albies/Swanson/Riley (Batting Order: 1-2-4-6-7)

COL – Hampson/Story/Cron/Blackmon/Daza (Batting Order: 1-3-4-5-6)

TOR – Jansen/Springer/Bichette/Guerrero Jr./Grichuk or Hernandez (Batting Order: 9-1-2-3-4)

ARI – Pavin Smith/VanMeter/Escobar/Rojas/Heath (Batting Order: 1-2-3-6-8)

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Tucker/Straw/Maldonado (Batting Order: 1-2-7-8-9)

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

ATL – Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna (Batting Order: 1-2-3)

NYY – Stanton/Judge/Urshela or Torres (or both!) (Batting Order: 2-3-4/5)

CIN – Winker/Moustakas/Senzel (Batting Order: 1-4-5)

MIL – Vogelbach/Garcia/Bradley Jr. (Batting Order: 2-4-7)

MIA – Berti/Duvall/Brinson (Batting Order: 3-4-5)

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