MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (5/19/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (5/19/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses this data along with the player pool that is available with our premium package. You can find that here, in our Premium Core Plays

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Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma, which has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access ALL odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here > BetKarma Live MLB Trends

 

Vegas Tables coming shortly!

 

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Jack Flaherty: Flaherty gets a beautiful national league matchup with the Pirates. It’s easily one of the best matchups in the league and Flaherty has looked great as of late. I think he comes in as the most popular pitcher today, but I am okay with that. I want to be in on Flaherty in this matchup.

Clayton Kershaw: Kershaw is my preferred option if you’re going with the double-spend up route. Most people would have Max as the second spend up but I am a little worried about the elite hitting conditions in Chicago today. Its just enough to push Max down my list, despite his elite strikeout stuff. Kershaw gets a really bad DBacks order that has gotten dominated by Urias and Buehler the past two days. Its Kershaws turn tonight!

Shohei Ohtani: We are witnessing greatness on a nightly basis with Ohtani. What he is able to do at the plate is incredible, then every fifth day we get to see him dominate on the mound. Ohtani has a great matchup vs a strikeout-heavy Cleveland lineup. They got after Heaney last night, so that’s why I reserve Ohtani for GPPs only.

Logan Gilbert: The Mariners #1 pitching prospect struggled in his first outing. I am not going to write him off after one start. He didn’t get a big enough price jump on DK, he should be a 6k pitcher. We are getting a nice discount on a talented arm vs a lineup that does possess a bunch of guys with high K rates. I am looking for a nice bounce-back spot for Gilbert in start #2.

 

Other GPP Targets: C. Burnes, M. Scherzer, T. Rogers, C. Kluber

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Mike Zunino/Mejia- Zunino was popular last night and paid off in a big way, he will be popular again tonight even in a difficult matchup vs John Means. Zunino has historically crushed left-handed pitching and it’s difficult to find his type of upside at the catcher position for cheap.

JT Realmuto/Andrew Knapp- Regardless of which catcher is behind the dish for the Phillies I have some interest. On the high end, Realmuto would be my favorite spend up at the position vs a lefty. On the low end, we could have Knapp as a potential punt power piece. Knapp and Realmuto both have better numbers vs lefties.

1B

Josh Bell: The National and Bell should be popular today. It’s a great hitting environment in Chicago today and they get Arrieta on the bump who does not intimidate me. I am looking forward to stacking the Nats today!

Pete Alonso: Charlie Morton has been awful this season, he has fallen off a cliff quickly. Pete is the most dangerous hitter in the Mets lineup right and if I am going to attack them it will be with Pete.

2B

Kike Hernandez: Kike was one of Ben’s favorite plays last night and I think he was a day early. Kike is a great way to get cheap exposure to the elite hitting environment in Dunedin. Second base is a spend-down position and Hernandez is a great way to go.

Dylan Moore: We want to pay down and second base and hopefully Seattle can get some hits tonight! Moore should hit in the middle of the order for the Mariners vs an average lefty in Skubal. Skubal has some good strikeout stuff but we are looking for that one big homerun from Moore.

3B

Johnathan Villar: Villar was popular last night and came through with a homerun for me and the rest of Karma Nation. I am interested in going right back to him tonight. I already touched on Morton not really have his best stuff this year, Villar is cheap exposure to the top of the Mets order.

Starlin Castro: Castro is my least favorite national but you know he had to be included.  He’s cheap and should hit right behind those elite 4 guys for the Nats. If they are successful then they can carry Castro along with them to the finish line!

SS

Trea Turner: It’s Turner or bust for me at SS today. Not only do we get the elite hitting environment with the wind blowing out to left, but Arrieta is a pitcher that you can steal off of. Turner is 6k but he’s worth every penny in this matchup. There are so many ways that he can pay off this price tag. Two SB’s or Two HR’s are in Turner’s future tonight.

Francisco Lindor: If you need to save a few bucks, Lindor is my second favorite option on this slate tonight. He has finally gotten it going at the plate and I want to be targetting him while he’s below 5k. This is an appealing price tag and matchup for Lindor.

OF

Natonals OF: Shocker….I love Juan Soto today. Soto just has not gotten it going yet but the big breakout game is coming. I want to be there when it happens. Turner will be getting on in front of him and causing havoc on the bases. This will allow the big, middle of the order, bats of the Nationals to have ample RIB opportunities. Schwarber in the revenge game vs the Cubs, he already has a homerun this series, i’ll be looking for another one tonight.

Christian Yelich: Comical price tag on the former MVP. Yelich just recently came off of the IL and Draftkings has mispriced him. Yelich is consistently a high 5k price tag player, we get him under 5k today This is not an “I need to see it first” situation. We need to be investing in Yelich while he’s this cheap.

Kyle Lewis: Lewis is hitting in the heart of the Seattle lineup and I think he’s interesting tonight. Skubal gives up a lot of fly balls and hard contact. Seattle needs to bounce back tonight and get some run support for their young pitcher. Lewis is an interesting target for cheap.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

My favorite stack of the night is the Washington Nationals. If you read the content above, this shouldn’t surprise you. I want to prioritize the top 4 in the order, but Castro is also viable.

If you are looking for cheap/leverage stacks. I want to be on the Brewers and Mariners at their current price tags. I think the top/middle of the order for both of these teams is in play. Yelich is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate.

I will be lower on the Redsox/Blue Jays than the market, but you cant deny how elite that ballpark is for hitters. Its the Coors field of the south right now.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

Coming Soon….

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

Coming Soon….

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