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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (5/5/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

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Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma, which has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access ALL odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here > BetKarma Live MLB Trends

 

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Yu Darvish: Darvish comes in as my highest projected pitcher by a pretty significant margin. He gets the benefit of pitching in the NL vs. a Pirates lineup that does not have a single player popping in the top 50% of any offensive metric. It really is a dream spot for Yu. I would be locking him into almost every lineup today.

Shane Bieber: There will be some debate on who the preferred SP2 is on this slate. For me, the conversation starts and ends with Shane Bieber. Bieber gets a Royals squad that is littered with strikeouts. Whit Merrifield has picked up where he left off last season, but if Bieber can keep him from causing havoc on the base paths then he will be successful vs a Royals team that is due for some regression.

Walker Buehler: Nothing has changed, the Cubs continue to strikeout. They have tried to move pieces in and out of the lineup to try and get players out of their slumps, but it hasn’t worked. The Cubs offense had a few double-digit run games in the wind that are inflating their numbers. f you remove those outlier games, things get really ugly for this Cubs offense. The Cubs are one of the worst offensive teams in the history of baseball here at the beginning of the season. They still have some power if they connect and Bryant/Rizzo have come into their own, so that’s why he’s third on my list. Buehler should not go overlooked today.

Other GPP Targets: Robbie Ray, Brady Singer, Martin Perez

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Mitch Garver: I expect the Twins to be a popular option today. Garver should hit in the heart of the order today vs a lefty. If we get the weird Twins lineup where Garver leads off, expect his ownership to be out of control. The Twins have one of the highest team totals on the slate and that’s reflected by their potential ownership.

Williams Contreras: The brother of Wilson Contreras has been a popular DFS option as of late. He gets to hit in a high upside lineup with Atlanta. He has been under 3k routinely but he got a slight bump today. He is my preferred cash option today.

1B

Freddie Freeman: The Braves will get a lot of traction in an attractive matchup with Fedde. Freeman had a tough night last night at the plate, I expect him to bounce right back tonight. He is expensive so we may need more value to open up since we want to spend up at pitching today.

Daniel Vogelbach: We will have to monitor the Brewers lineup, but if Vogelbach is hitting near the top of the order I like him today as a source of value. He gets Anderson who allows a ton of home runs and fly balls. Philadelphia allows offers a great hitting environment for left-handed power.

2B

Kike Hernandez: The Red Sox continue to get overlooked despite their team totals. I want to be invested in the Sox if they continue to provide you a lot of leverage on the field. I usually like to target Hernandez vs lefties, but at sub 4K I can overlook the platoon matchup.

Jose Altuve: Altuve got booed and cursed at last night in Yankee Stadium. Yankee fans may regret that tonight when Altuve gets to see a lefty on the bump. Altuve has historically crushed left-handed pitching and I always want to be invested in him if he’s going to go lower owned than a player like Albies.

3B

Alex Bregman: Bregman continues to smash this season and it’s going overlooked. He went deep last night and I want to be in on him again tonight. The Astros don’t have the best team total, but that will keep their ownership down. There are no true standout stacks tonight, so getting the Astros at lower ownership is appealing.

Josh Donaldson: Donaldson is a part of the expensive Twins stack tonight. Donaldson has been getting back into the groove of things. I think Donaldson could be a low-owned leverage play in what could be a chalky Twins stack.

SS

Trea Turner: Turner has been on fire lately. I like Turner when he has the protection of Soto, but he has held his own even without Soto. Turner has elite power and speed upside vs a lefty. I think he goes under-owned today after being popular yesterday.

Jorge Polanco: I want to be on the Twins today, Polanco could hit in the cleanup spot today and if he does then I am in.

Xander Bogaerts: Xander has been on fire lately and has continued to be under-owned. I like a Red Sox stack today and Xander is a premium piece of it.

OF

Twins OF: Buxton and Cruz are both fantastic spend-ups. We always to target Cruz when he is facing a lefty. Buxton has been arguably the best power/speed combo player in baseball behind Acuna this season. We are finally seeing the potential we have always been searching for with Buxton.

Braves OF: What else is there to say about Ronald Acuna? Acuna is the favorite for MVP right now, he continues to be impressive in every aspect of the game. If we keep investing in Acuna in great spots we will be profitable this season. I believe we are the beginning of something special.

Yankees OF: There isn’t a hitter in the world more locked in than Stanton right now. The exit velocity numbers we are seeing from him are insane. It’s difficult to even believe that they are real. Stanton still isn’t priced appropriately. Stanton’s outs are even impressive.

Red Sox OF: Will they go overlooked again? JD Martinez was declared dead after 2020 by most, now he’s one of the best hitters in baseball again. This is a prime example of why we should be ignoring small sample sizes when evaluating players.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

I like the Red Sox as my leverage stack for tonight. If I am going with a chalkier option then I lean the Twins vs a leftie. I will likely pick one stack and then fill in cheap one-offs around them.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

MIL: Wong-Cain-Vogelbach-Shaw-Garcia

Min: Buxton-Cruz-Garlick-Garver-Polanco

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

NYY: Stanton-Judge-Torres

LAD: Betts-Seager-Turner

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