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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (6/14/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses this data along with the player pool that is available with our premium package. You can find that here, in our Premium Core Plays

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

 

 

 

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and has clearly been the top arm on this slate. He’s pitched to a 2.86 SIERA in 2021 with over 36% strikeouts. He is also one of the many pitchers that have seen his spin rates decline in result of the MLB league-wide crackdown on foreign substances — even with the decline in spin rate in recent starts, it hasn’t resulted in a strikeout rate decline. This is a pretty watered down pitching slate for the amount of games we have, and Glasnow is the number one ace in all formats even in a tough match-up.

Adam Wainwright

Wainwright and Sean Manaea are my favorite non-Glasnow plays, but it comes down to Waino due to him being significantly cheaper on DraftKings. He’s turned back the clock this season, and has one of the top match-ups on tonight’s slate against the Marlins. This lineup is still very top-heavy, with nobody in the projected lineup sporting a wOBA above .305 after the top three hitters. They also strike out over 25% of the time combined as a team. Chalky Wainwright is not something I typically would roster, but I can’t day I’m confident in any pitcher after Glasnow on this slate. I may end up moving Manaea above Waino, if we get any strong values when lineups are confirmed.

David Peterson

I will note that this game has the most serious weather concerns on the slate, so there is a chance that he gets washed out and is not in play. That being said, this is a GPP-only play for me anyways with Glasnow and Waino being the clear main team pairing on DK. Peterson has fallen off in his recent starts, but the strikeout stuff remains and this is a positive match-up in terms of strikeout potential against the Cubs. This Cubs lineup certainly has pop, but it comes with 25% strikeouts this season. If you are making a lot of teams, Peterson is in play in GPPs.

Other GPP Targets: Lance Lynn, Sean Manaea, Brad Keller

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

As usual on these big slates, we have a solid mix of cheap and expensive catcher options to fill in any type of lineup you are building. The top cash game option will likely be Victor Caratini who is projected to draw the start for the San Diego Padres in Coors Field. In tournaments, I am interested in spending up for the likes of JT Realmuto and Salvador Perez, or looking in the mid-tier at Carson Kelly. Kelly has tattooed left-handed pitching this season — owning a 44% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. Alex Wood has sharply declined since his hot start to the season, and there are extreme winds blowing out to center in San Fran tonight. Kelly is my top option.

1B

Vladdy Guerrero Jr

Vladdy has been a staple in my builds the last month or so, and it seems like he is always coming in under-owned. It seems like DFS players are only interested in him against left-handed pitching, yet he leads the team in wOBA and ISO vs righties this season. He’s also an extremely good fastball hitter, and Nathan Eovaldi utilizes his fastball over 50% of the time against same-handed batters…

Paul Goldschmidt

The numbers haven’t been there for Goldy this season, but this is still one of the top hitters in baseball over the last few seasons vs southpaw pitching. Despite the lackluster splits, Goldy still owns a 46% hard hit rate with 23% line drives this season.

2B

Ryan McMahon

McMahon is the first player from the Coors game in today’s article, and we will see the ownership focused heavily here. I much prefer the Padres side of this game, but there’s really no reason he should be priced below $5,000 on DK. He is the only player in the Rockies projected lineup with a ISO above .200 this season, and his 49% hard hit rate is tops as well.

Other Options: McMahon or his teammate, Brendan Rodgers, are the standout plays at second base for me today. If you are looking to move away from that game in tournament formats, Brandon Lowe and Marcus Semien are my preferred plays.

 

3B

Manny Machado

Machado has been a top target of all DFS players in recent years against left-handed pitching, and that won’t change tonight. Not only are the Padres in Coors Field, but it’s also some of the hottest weather on the slate. We can expect him to be one of the highest-owned hitters on the slate, but this is chalk I’m planning to eat on my main builds.

Ke’Bryan Hayes

Due to the presence of Coors Field, most spots that usually garner a ton of attention will fly more under the radar on Monday night. One of those spots is the Pirates, who are up against Jon Lester. We have just a small sample size, but it has resulted in 50% hard hits and over 60% fly balls against left-handed pitching. With Machado dominating ownership, expect Hayes to come in low-owned.

SS

Fernando Tatis Jr

Similar to Machado, Tatis Jr needs no introduction as to why he is the best play at this position. The decision becomes whether or not you want to stack the highest-owned team in tournaments, or fade.

Other Options: Tatis is the clear play here especially in cash games, but you can always look elsewhere in GPPs or stacks. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Crawford and Willy Adames are where I’m focused in my player pool.

 

OF

Padres Outfield

We conclude our Padres love in the outfield, where they have multiple players that stick out. Tommy Pham and Wil Myers will stick out from the right-side of the plate, but we can’t ignore Trent Grisham even in a lefty on lefty match-up. If you are full stacking San Diego, it makes sense to use Grisham over one of the righties for the leverage — and it’s always likely he sees a righty out of the bullpen.

Nick Castellanos

We always are looking to target Castellanos against left-handed pitching, and he continues to be one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He should be one of the most expensive options on DK, but once again finds himself priced below $5,000 in salary. Since the start of last season, Eric Lauer is allowing 45% hard hits and a near .300 ISO to right-handed batters.

Jorge Soler

Soler has been really bad this season, no doubt, but some of it can be chalked up to bad luck. His .182 BABIP can be used as evidence, and he is still hitting the ball in the air. His rough season has resulted in him being underpriced for his power upside, and we know that he has that power against left-handed pitching.

Bryan Reynolds

As I noted with Hayes, I think the Pirates will be a touch lower owned than the usually would due to the Coors game. Since the start of last season, Reynolds is second on the team with 43% hard contact against southpaws. He is extremely affordable on both sites, and can be used as a one off or in a stack.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

Ben’s stacks will be posted at 5:30 PM!

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

Ben’s stacks will be posted at 5:30 PM!

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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