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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (6/17/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses this data along with the player pool that is available with our premium package. You can find that here, in our Premium Core Plays

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma, which has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access ALL odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here > BetKarma Live MLB Trends

 

Vegas Tables coming shortly!

 

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

Shohei Ohtani: I am comfortable using Ohtani as my SP1 in a matchup with the strikeout-heavy Detroit Tigers roster. Ohtani has an elite 34% K-rate this season, combine that with a Tigers lineup that has a team strikeout rate in the upper 20s, and it’s a perfect recipe for success. Ohatnis splitter is one of the best pitches in baseball.

Joe Musgrove: If going with the double spend-up approach, my preferred option is Musgrove. The Reds take a hit in a hitting environment going from a stretch at home, to the pitcher-friendly confines of San Diego. The Reds batting average drops 30 points on the road and OBP drops 40 points. This is a matchup some may avoid. But you should play Musgrove w/ confidence.

Other GPP Targets: C. Morton, Marcus Stroman, R. Hill

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Omar Narvaez: A middle-of-the-order catcher, in Coors,  will always be popular. Narvaez has a .433 slugging % vs right-handed pitching this season. He has actually been better on the road to begin with this season, a trip to Coors should only help those numbers increase.

Gary Sanchez: Sanchez is getting on one of those hot streaks he likes to go on. 4 homeruns in his last 6 games with two of them coming in really pivotal sports for the Yankees. The Yankees have one of the highest team totals on the slate. Sanchez is my preferred spend-up option at catcher. When he has gone on these streaks in the past, we have seen him priced above 5k.

1B

Freddie Freeman: Freeman came through for Karma Nation last night with a big late-inning homerun. Freeman gets another excellent matchup vs Gant. He will continue to be put in optimal situations, teams have opted to pitch to the NL MVP instead of throwing to Ronald Acuna.

Ji-Man Choi: The Rays are one of my favorite stacks on today’s slate. Not only do they have a healthy team total but they’re one of the cheaper high-end stacks on this slate. The OF options are expensive but Choi is reasonably priced in a plus matchup. He has been productive when healthy this season. Choi has a multi-hit game in his range of outcomes today.

2B

Brandon Lowe: The top Rays option on the board for me today is Lowe. Lowe has moved into the leadoff spot for the Rays vs right-handed pitching. He is a player that I will roster as a one-off, as well as being a priority for my Rays stacks. He sports the type of power that can break the slate. He will be popular but I am still very interested.

Luis Urias: Urias will lead off for the Brewers in Coors. It seems that Draftkings hasn’t given the Brewers the Coors bump yet. Urias should be priced up in the high 4s for a Coors matchup. Instead, we should take our value to the bank and invest in Urias before he’s priced up in a day or two.

3B

Joey Wendle: Wendle is leading the way for the first-place Rays right now, Wendle is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball this season. Wendle has a slugging that is approaching .500 and his .830 OPS really jumps off the page. those types of numbers would surprise a lot of casual baseball fans.

Joe Panik: Strictly a price play at a weaker position. Panik has been pulling a decent lineup spot for the Blue Jays, they will face a Yankees bullpen that is rested. The Vegas line suggests that there will be some runs score in this game. Panik gives you cheap exposure to an elite game environment.

SS

Marcus Semien: Semien was an AL MVP candidate last year and he has been a star signing by the Blue Jays this season. He has dominated in the role of lead-off hitter for this offense. It helps that he has the favorite for AL MVP hitting behind him. Semien started off yesterday’s game taking Cole deep, he will look to continue with this success today vs King and the bullpen of the Yankees. Blue Jays and Yankees will be popular options today, but it’s justified due to this healthy game total.

Taylor Walls: Walls is the type of play that allows you to go to the double-spend-up at Pitcher. The #7 prospect for the Rays has the talent and upside to produce at this cheap 2.9k price tag. He has 91st percentile sprint speed which gives him upside for extra-base hits and stolen base potential. The Rays are a smart organization, they wouldn’t throw Walls to the wolves unless they thought he was ready.

OF

Abraham Almonte: Almonte will be one of the most popular plays on the slate. He came through last night with some extra-base hits and his price went DOWN. I will be going right back to the well with Almonte and hoping he can drive in Freeman and Acuna.

TOR OF: King has given up a 44% hard-hit rate and 9% walk rate. This sets up the Blue Jays to be an excellent stack with elite homerun upside. He’s allowed more barrels and a high barrel % than previous seasons. I want these homerun guys in my lineup tonight.

Christian Yelich: Yelich in Coors vs a righty that’s profile sets up for Yelich’s success. Yelich hasn’t had the elite breakout game yet, but Coors can fix that. He will be over 6k in the upcoming days in Coors. Today is a great day to be on the Yelich stack.

Randy Arozarena: Arozarena is on an 11 game hitting streak right now, he is one of the hottest hitters in baseball continuing his success from last year’s historic postseason run. He is in the upper tier of hitters when it comes to hard-hit rate and exit velo.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

 

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

TOR: Semien-Bichette-Vlad-Hernandez-Grichuk

ATL: Acuna-Freeman-Albies-Almonte-Riley

TBR: Lowe-Arozarena-Choi-Meadows-Wendle

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

MIL: Urias-Yelich-Narvaez

LAA: Upton-Walsh-Stassi

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