This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

 

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Trevor Rogers

Rogers continues to throw at an elite level for the Miami Marlins, although he isn’t priced like it on DraftKings. He boasts a slate-low 3.30 xFIP to go along with a slate-high 30.3% strikeout rate through 17 starts. Rogers gets a tough matchup on paper against the Atlanta Braves. With that being said, they’ve struggled offensively on the road, and there are plenty of strikeouts throughout their lineup. Rogers is a small favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, and he’s the top pitching option on the early slate.

Max Fried

Fried’s been unlucky throughout the season, as his 4.66 xFIP sits well above his 3.99 xFIP. He’s due for positive regression to go along with a 23% strikeout rate through 13 starts. Most importantly, Fried gets a matchup against a strikeout-happy Miami Marlins offense that’s struggled against left-handed pitching throughout the season. He’s a small underdog, although the game is set at only 7 runs. Fried certainly comes with some risk, but he’s an elite option in this matchup, and he can be used in all leagues today.

Joe Musgrove

There are several great pitching options on the main slate, but DraftKings mispriced Musgrove tonight. He’s the fifth most expensive option, sitting below $8k. Through 17 games (16 starts), Musgrove owns a 3.32 xFIP and a 29.2% strikeout rate. His advanced metrics are elite, and he gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Colorado features arguably the worst road offense in the MLB, and they’ll struggle playing in San Diego tonight. Musgrove is a -181 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s the top per dollar option on the main slate.

Other GPP Targets: Anthony DeSclafani, Marcus Stroman, Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, Freddy Peralta, German Marquez, Kwang Hyun Kim

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

JT Realmuto

I initially wanted to give you a punt option in Kevin Plawecki here, but Realmuto’s price tag continues to be far too cheap. He’s hitting for a .211 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Realmuto’s also posted double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 6 games, averaging 12 DK points per game over that span. He gets a great matchup against Martin Perez today, and Realmuto will continue to be the chalk option until DraftKings increases his price tag.

Omar Narvaez

This pick came down to Narvaez and Will Smith with the former edging him out. The Milwaukee catcher has been playing at a high level, posting a .345 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .958 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs over that span. Narvaez gets a great matchup against Vladimir Gutierrez, and he’s expected to hit fourth in the Brewers lineup. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s one of the top hitting catchers in the MLB, giving you plenty of upside at a weak position.

1B

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec continues to quietly play well for the Boston Red Sox. He’s hitting for a .290 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .701 OPS over his last 10 games. He enters this game with .084 wOBA and .103 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Dalbec gets a plus matchup against Matt Moore, who owns a 1.98 HR/9 this season. He’s expected to hit ninth in the Boston Red Sox lineup, but he comes with tremendous upside because of his home run potential against left-handed pitching. Dalbec makes a great salary relief option on this slate.

Jared Walsh

Walsh is producing on a near-nightly basis for the Los Angeles Angels this season. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .286 average with 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 12 RBIs. He gets a great matchup against Chris Flexen tonight, as well. Walsh has been dominant against right-handed pitching in 2021, recording a .445 wOBA and a .320 ISO thus far. He’s hitting third in the Los Angeles offense, and he could go a bit overlooked with some of the other options at this position on this slate.

2B

Kike Hernandez

Hernandez has found plenty of success in recent games, posting a .289 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s a player that’s consistently found success against left-handed pitching, and he gets an elite matchup against Matt Moore today. Hernandez is also expected to lead off for the Boston Red Sox, who feature the highest implied team total on the slate. If you can afford Hernandez, Jean Segura is an elite salary relief option today.

Jace Peterson

If you can spend up here, Max Muncy is an elite option in all leagues. Peterson is simply mispriced tonight. He’s playing at an extremely high level, recording a .323 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He’s averaging 10.4 DK points per game in those contests. Peterson also gets one of the best matchups on the slate against Vladimir Gutierrez. He’s only hitting sixth in the Milwaukee Brewers offense, but he should be priced closer to $5k rather than under $4k tonight.

3B

Thairo Estrada

Estrada’s struggled in limited games this season. Overall, he’s hitting for a .250 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs through 11 games. With that being said, Estrada boasts plenty of upside, and he’s expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup. He also gets an elite matchup against Jon Lester, who looks to be a shell of his former self at this point in his career. Estrada is a cheap way to get a piece of the San Francisco offense today.

Justin Turner

Turner’s been as consistent as anyone for the Los Angeles Dodgers in recent games. He boasts a .382 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a 1.020 OPS over his last 10 games. Turner gets a great matchup against Caleb Smith and a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen tonight. He’ll hit third in the Los Angeles order, and he’s an elite option if you can get to his price tag. Luis Urias is also a top option on this slate for slightly cheaper.

SS

Trea Turner

Everything speaks to Xander Bogaerts being the top spend up on this slate, and I believe he’s an elite play. If most think that way, though, Turner becomes an elite leverage play. He’s arguably the hottest hitting in the MLB, posting a .378 average with a .867 slugging percentage and a 1.271 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 9 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases in those games. Overall, Turner’s averaging 16.5 DK points per game over that span. He gets a tough matchup against Anthony DeSclafani, but the latter is far from an untouchable ace. Turner should easily be north of $6k at this point, and we can take advantage of the loose pricing.

Willy Adames

Adames is another hot-hitting shortstop in these games. He owns a .361 average with 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s averaging 11.4 DK points per game in those contests. Adames continues to hit in the heart of the Milwaukee Brewers offense, and he gets a great matchup against Vladimir Gutierrez tonight. If you aren’t paying up for Fernando Tatis Jr. tonight, Adames is a great option on this slate.

OF

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox feature four of the best outfielders on the slate today. We’ve already discussed Kike Hernandez, so he’ll be left out here. J.D. Martinez and Hunter Renfroe are my preferred options, as two players that have found tremendous success against left-handed pitching. Alex Verdugo can also be considered, though, as this isn’t a difficult lefty/lefty matchup, and he should see plenty of time against the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen. Ultimately, the Red Sox feature the highest implied team total on the early slate for a reason, and their outfielders are a massive part of that. All of them can be used in all leagues.

Austin Slater

It’s impossible to trust Slater on any given slate. He’s found plenty of success in recent games, posting a .273 average with a .545 slugging percentage and a .850 OPS over his last 10 games. He also boasts .095 wOBA and .129 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. Slater gets an elite matchup against Jon Lester today, making him an outstanding option as the San Francisco Giants lead-off hitter. The only issue is that he generally gets pulled at some point in his games, potentially limiting his at-bats.

Milwaukee Brewers

There are two outfields that feature the majority of the top options on the main slate. It starts with Milwaukee. Christian Yelich is the top option, even with his recent struggles. His price tag could keep his ownership down, as well. Avisail Garcia has been on fire, posting a .405 average with 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 12 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s in the same tier as Yelich tonight. Jackie Bradley Jr. is in the tier below them, although he can be considered for a significantly lower price tag.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers feature the other great outfield on this slate. Mookie Betts is in a similar spot to Yelich. He’s expensive, struggling, and makes an elite option on this slate. A.J. Pollock is expected to hit near the end of the Dodgers lineup, but he’s flashed plenty of power in recent games. He’s the second-best option followed by Cody Bellinger, who is another Dodgers player that has been ice cold in recenta games.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a pair of six-game slates today with the early slate featuring significantly better games for stacking. Still, below I’ll outline my favorite stacks from both slates.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Hernandez/Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers/Renfroe

MIL – Yelich/Adames/Narvaez/Garcia/Peterson

CHW – Anderson/Moncada/Abreu/Goodwin/Sheets

OAK – Laureano/Andrus/Olson/Chapman/Kemp

LAD – Betts/Muncy/Turner/Pujols/Smith

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Hernandez/Martinez/Bogaerts

MIL – Adames/Garcia/Peterson

OAK – Laureano/Olson/Chapman

SFG – Yastrzemski/Ruf/Flores

LAD – Betts/Muncy/Turner

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)