MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/2/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/2/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses this data along with the player pool that is available with our premium package. You can find that here, in our Premium Core Plays

 

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Max Scherzer

There are several elite pitching options in both cash games and tournaments on this slate. If I’m spending up, Scherzer is my favorite option. He enters this game with a 3.23 xFIP and a 35.4% strikeout rate this season. Scherzer’s posted 20+ DK points in each of his last 9 starts, excluding when he was injured, while flashing 40+ DK point upside. He gets a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, although Scherzer’s found more success in Washington this season. Although Lance Lynn makes an outstanding option against the Detroit Tigers, Scherzer comes with more upside and continues to be an extremely consistent option, regardless of the matchup.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson’s been underpriced for the majority of the season. He’s due for regression, although he boasts a 3.91 xFIP to go along with a 20.9% strikeout rate through 15 starts. Gibson’s xFIP dips to 3.54 and his strikeout rate increases to 23.6% at home this season. He gets a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who have found more offensive success in recent games, but they aren’t an offense we should be shying away from. Surprisingly, Gibson is a small underdog in this game, but he makes an outstanding option for his ridiculous price tag.

JT Brubaker

Brubaker’s another pitcher that is far too cheap tonight and has been for most of the season. He boasts a 3.80 xFIP with a 23.1% strikeout rate through 14 starts. Brubaker’s been better at home, where his xFIP drops to 3.46 and his strikeout rate jumps to 26.3%. He gets an interesting matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have flashed offensively in recent weeks but also possess plenty of strikeouts throughout their lineup. Brubaker is another small underdog on this slate, but he’s an outstanding option for his price tag tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Lance Lynn, Julio Urias, Zac Gallen, Adrian Houser, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Yadier Molina

Molina’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .184 average with 3 extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He boasts upside, though, scoring double-digit DK points in 4 of those 10 games. Most importantly, Molina gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Colorado tonight. His price tag is finally up, but he’s hitting fifth in what projects as the best offense on the slate. Molina is a reasonably priced way to get an important piece of the St. Louis Cardinals offense.

Max Stassi

Stassi is an outstanding pivot off of Molina tonight. He’s similarly priced and won’t see nearly as much ownership. Stassi’s only hitting for a .200 average without any power over his last 10 games. With that being said, he boasts a .409 average with a .727 slugging percentage and a 1.207 OPS through 16 home games this season. Stassi gets a plus matchup against Keegan Akin, and he enters this game with a .109 ISO differential against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Angels offense, and he’s another outstanding option at this position.

1B

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt continues to find success, recording a .263 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. This isn’t a play based on recent production or splits, though. Goldschmidt will be playing in Coors against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who continues to struggle for the Colorado Rockies. The Cardinals’ first baseman is underpriced for the situation, as he should easily be $5k or more. He’s an easy cash game option that can be considered in tournaments, as well, on this slate.

Yuli Gurriel

Gurriel’s a bit more expensive than Goldschmidt, which should keep his ownership down a bit. He’s been playing at a high level in recent games, though, as he’s hitting for a .343 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .829 OPS over his last 10 games. Gurriel’s lack of power in recent games is concerning, although he gets an elite matchup against Sam Hentges, who’s struggled with home runs throughout the season. The Astros’ first baseman also boasts a .417 wOBA and a .257 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021.

2B

David Fletcher

There are several elite second base options on this slate. You’re going to have to save money somewhere, though, and Fletcher is one of the best salary relief options on the slate. He’s caught fire over his last 10 games, hitting for a .385 average with 4 extra-base hits, 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. More importantly, Fletcher is expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Angels. He gets a great matchup against Keegan Akin, and he brings a .087 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching into this game. Fletcher’s an outstanding option in all leagues, although his lack of power caps his ceiling.

Jonathan India

I was initially deciding between Jose Altuve and Whit Merrifield for this slot, but I wanted to outline someone a bit less obvious tonight. India’s been playing at an extremely high level for the Cincinnati Reds, recording a .316 average with 4 extra-base hits, 2 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. The Reds rookie quietly owns more power against right-handed pitching this season, and he gets a plus matchup against Alec Mills tonight. He’s another reasonably priced option if you can’t get to the top of this position.

3B

Nolan Arenado

Arenado flopped in his return to Colorado last night, failing to record any hits. He’s been ice cold recently, hitting for a .200 average, although he owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, Arenado gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the MLB tonight. He spent years dominating in Coors and should have no issues finding success in this series. Arenado’s the most expensive third baseman on the slate, but he’s an option that can be used in all leagues if you have the salary.

Luis Arraez

If you’re looking to save at this position, Arraez sticks out more than anyone else. He continues to play well, hitting for a .324 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .851 OPS over his last 10 games. Arraez is leading off for the Minnesota Twins, and he gets a plus matchup against Brady Singer tonight. He boasts .042 wOBA and .004 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching on the season, and Arraez is a player that will benefit from the matchup against a struggling Kansas City bullpen.

SS

Carlos Correa

There are several high-priced shortstops on this slate with Correa sticking out as my favorite. He continues to dominate at the plate, boasting a .324 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. Correa’s been better against right-handed pitching this season, although he owns a .387 wOBA and a .157 ISO against lefties. He gets an elite matchup against a struggling Sam Hentges, and he’s an elite option for the Houston Astros.

Paul DeJong

Unsurprisingly, DeJong continues to be the salary relief option for the St. Louis Cardinals, as DraftKings refuses to price him higher. He’s been heating up over his last 10 games, posting a .241 average with 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. DeJong’s been slightly better against right-handed pitching this season, and he gets a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez. He’s a cheap way to get a piece of the highest projected offense on the slate.

OF

Coors Game

I’m not going to waste two spots for each offense in this game. Simply put, either set of outfielders (or entire offenses) can be considered as Chi Chi Gonzalez and Johan Oviedo take the mound for their respective teams. The majority of outfielders in this game are underpriced, as well, with only Charlie Blackmon and Tommy Edman over $4.5k. Yonathan Daza and Dylan Carlson continue to hit near the top of their orders, and they come under $4k tonight. If a player is starting in this game, they are a reasonable option tonight.

Myles Straw

For what it’s worth, I believe any Houston Astros outfielder can be considered on this slate. I wanted to specifically outline Straw, though. He’s been underpriced for quite some time, as he generally hits near the end of the Houston lineup. With that being said, he’s tentatively expected to hit second tonight. He’s been on fire for a while, as well, posting a .368 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. The Astros are one of my favorite options on this slate, and Straw is arguably the best salary relief option, assuming he ends up hitting second in their lineup.

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is coming off of a dismal pitching performance against the New York Yankees. That means absolutely nothing at the plate, though. He’s hitting at an unbelievable level, posting a .306 average with 10 extra-base hits (7 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Ohtani could go overlooked because of the lefty/lefty matchup, but I’m not willing to avoid him because Keegan Akin is on the mound. The Angels’ generational talent should also see a few innings (at least) against the Baltimore Orioles bullpen, making him an elite spend-up.

Jorge Soler

Oddly enough, this article doesn’t outline many Kansas City Royals, even though they’re one of my favorite offenses tonight. Soler’s been ice cold over his last 10 games, owning a .182 average with only 1 extra-base hit. With that being said, he gets a great matchup against JA Happ tonight. Soler’s far too cheap if he’s hitting second in the Kansas City lineup. Essentially, I’ll take a shot on a cheap option hitting high in the order in an offense I expect to find success on this slate.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

This is a massive 14 game slate with several great pitching options and a plethora of stacks in elite spots. Below, I’ll outline my favorite 5 stacks at this point.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

STL – Carlson/Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill/Molina

HOU – Altuve/Straw/Gurriel/Alvarez/Correa

LAA – Fletcher/Ohtani/Rendon/Gosselin/Stassi

KC – Merrifield/Soler/Santana/Perez/Dozier

COL – Tapia/Daza/Blackmon/Story/McMahon

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Srraw/Gurriel

STL – Goldschmidt/Areando/O’Neill

KC – Merrifield/Santana/Perez

LAA – Fletcher/Ohtani/Rendon

COL – Tapia/Blackmon/Story

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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