Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/27/21)

by
Justin
July 27, 2021

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID
Tanner Houck	R	BOS	OAK		OAK	8,400	15.61			2.39	21.40%	8.90%	1.19	0.30	12.90	27.60%	43.90%	4.33	1.37	12.50		656,557
Ben Lively	R	CLE	SEA		SEA	7,100				2.11	20.60%	6.50%	2.03	0.30	8.40	38.90%	35.50%	4.33	1.36	14.10		594,902
James Paxton	L	LAD	SF	25.30	LAD	8,600	15.05			5.46	24.60%	8.00%	1.69	0.29	12.70	37.10%	39.60%	4.11	1.31	16.60		572,020
Kenta Maeda	R	DET	NYM		NYM	8,400				2.84	27.30%	6.50%	1.47	0.29	12.80	47.50%	42.10%	3.76	1.17	20.80		628,317
Paul Blackburn	R	OAK	BOS		OAK	6,800				2.53	22.40%	9.30%	0.95	0.35	10.10	35.30%	32.80%	4.50	1.54	13.20		621,112
Marcus Stroman	R	NYY	ARI		ARI	8,000				2.24	20.70%	9.00%	0.59	0.28	9.20	21.90%	41.20%	4.21	1.26	11.70		573,186
Kevin Gausman	R	TOR	HOU		HOU	9,400				3.89	31.10%	7.20%	0.92	0.32	12.90	38.30%	43.20%	3.34	1.18	23.90		592,332
J.P. France	R	HOU	TOR		HOU	7,000				2.16	17.40%	8.10%	1.25	0.29	9.10	37.40%	38.50%	4.96	1.36	9.30		641,585
Tommy Henry	L	ARI	NYY	22.80	ARI	7,000				4.59	16.80%	9.20%	1.21	0.28	10.30	44.20%	32.40%	5.29	1.36	7.60		674,072
Steven Matz	L	STL	SD	21.70	SD	7,900				3.98	21.80%	7.10%	0.94	0.32	10.70	31.80%	37.70%	4.19	1.33	14.70		571,927
Logan Gilbert	R	SEA	CLE		SEA	9,500				2.99	24.60%	4.70%	1.37	0.27	12.10	40.50%	44.60%	3.78	1.08	19.90		669,302
Mike King			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Luis Severino	R	NYM	DET		NYM	6,900				0.00												622,663
Logan Webb	R	SF	LAD		LAD	8,300				3.06	22.80%	3.70%	0.83	0.30	9.00	21.10%	45.50%	3.16	1.07	19.20		657,277
Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID

Lance McCullers

McCullers continues to find success for the Houston Astros. He owns a 3.04 ERA with a 3.77 xFIP and a 27.8% strikeout rate through 16 starts. McCullers’ posted 20+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a 35.4 DK point performance. He’s also averaging 24 DK points per game on the road this season. Most importantly, McCullers gets a plus matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who have struggled offensively for the majority of the season. He’s currently a -160 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s the top option on this slate.

Shane McClanahan

McClanahan generally doesn’t throw deep into games, but his advanced metrics are outstanding. Through 14 starts, he owns a 3.88 ERA with a 3.22 xFIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t thrown more than 6 innings in any game this season, though, somewhat limiting his overall upside. With that being said, McClanahan’s posted 20+ DK points in 4 of his last 10 starts. He gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees, who feature several right-handed bats throughout their lineup. With that being said, they also strike out at a high rate. McClanahan’s a -144 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, making him an outstanding option on this slate.

Kenta Maeda

Maeda continues to be a bit underpriced on the season. He’s due for positive regression, as his 3.89 xFIP sits well below his 4.63 ERA. He also owns a 24.8% strikeout rate through 16 starts. Maeda’s scored 16+ DK points in 6 of his last 7 starts, flashing 35 DK point upside. He gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who feature a high upside offense with plenty of strikeouts. Maeda is currently a -197 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. He’s the top mid-tier option on a massive slate with plenty of pitchers to choose from.

Other GPP Targets: Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton, Julio Urias, Chris Paddack, Dane Dunning, Adbert Alzolay, Logan Webb

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Mitch Garver

Garver’s looked outstanding in limited games since returning from injury. In 4 games back, he’s averaging 12.5 DK points per game. He owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 3 RBIs in those games. Garver gets a great matchup against Tyler Alexander, who’s struggled with power at times this season. The Minnesota catcher owns a .361 wOBA and a .256 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Garver’s expected to hit second in the Twins lineup tonight, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.

Tres Barrera

If you’re looking to punt at this position, Barrera is an outstanding option. He’s hitting for a .310 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs. Although the sample size is small, each of Barrera’s 4 extra-base hits this season have come against left-handed pitching. He gets an elite matchup against Matt Moore tonight. Barrera is expected to hit seventh in the Washington Nationals lineup, as well. He’s an outstanding option tonight.

1B

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo hasn’t been playing overly well over his last 10 games, posting a .216 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs. With that being said, he’s heating up a bit, posting 56 DK points over his last 4 games. Rizzo gets an elite matchup against Vladimir Gutierrez, who’s recorded a 1.82 HR/9 this season. The wind is blowing out to right tonight, helping left-handed batters. Rizzo’s expecting to hit fourth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he’s a bit too cheap for this matchup tonight.

Joey Votto

Votto’s been playing at an elite level in recent games. He’s recorded a .333 average with a .722 slugging percentage and a 1.179 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those contests. Votto gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Adbert Alzolay tonight, although the young Chicago pitcher’s giving up 2.04 HR/9 this season. Votto will also benefit from the weather in this game, and he’s expected to hit third in the Cincinnati Reds lineup. He’s another player that’s a bit too cheap at this position.

2B

Jorge Polanco

Polanco continues to play well for the Minnesota Twins. He’s hitting for a .333 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over his last 10 games. Polanco’s similar against either handedness, although he’s been slightly more powerful against left-handed pitching. He gets a great matchup against Tyler Alexander, and he’s expected to lead off for Minnesota. Polanco’s entirely too cheap on this slate, and he’s an outstanding option in all leagues.

Alcides Escobar

Escobar’s been underpriced the entire season, and DraftKings refuses to move him up at this point. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .293 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs. He’s a relatively consistent option, who’s also flashed plenty of upside for his price tag. Escobar gets an elite matchup against Matt Moore, who continues to struggle for the Philadelphia Phillies. He’ll be leading off for the Washington Nationals in a hitter-friendly stadium, and Escobar can be considered in all leagues as a salary relief option on this slate.

3B

Josh Harrison

Harrison’s another Washington Nationals player that’s underpriced on this season. He’s been playing at a high level, recording a .359 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a 1.047 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 8 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs in those contests. Harrison gets a great matchup against Matt Moore, and he owns .045 wOBA and .051 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Washington lineup, and he’s another elite salary relief option on this slate.

Isan Diaz

Diaz isn’t someone I generally like to use, although he’s an interesting option tonight. He’s been struggling, posting a .227 average with 2 extra-base hits over his last 10 games. Even though he’s struggled the majority of the season, Diaz boasts .110 wOBA and .091 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He gets a matchup against Spenser Watkins, who’s due for regression as he throws more innings. Diaz is only in play because of his near minimum price tag, but he is certainly an option tonight.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Trea Turner

Turner’s name has been thrown around in trade rumors, but he continues to play at an extremely high level. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .341 average with a .512 slugging percentage and a .899 OPS. He’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 7 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Turner’s hitting second for the Washington Nationals, and he gets an elite matchup against Matt Moore in a hitter-friendly stadium. The Nationals are one of my favorite offenses on this slate, and Turner is a massive part of that offense.

Bo Bichette

Bichette’s surprisingly cheap, as he’s a player that’s $5k+ more often than not. He’s been playing well, posting a .316 average with 2 home runs, 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Bichette gets a great matchup against Garrett Richards, who’s been struggling in recent starts. He’s hitting fourth in the Toronto Blue Jays offense, as well. Bichette is a bit too cheap for his recent success and this matchup, and he can be used in all leagues.

OF

Rafael Ortega

Ortega’s seen somewhat of limited at-bats in recent games, although he’s found plenty of success. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .400 average with a .560 slugging percentage and a 1.004 OPS. He’s expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, and he gets an elite matchup against Vladimir Gutierrez. Ortega owns .254 wOBA and .158 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s an outstanding salary relief option in the outfield.

Juan Soto

It’s tough not to love Soto on every slate. He’s as hot as anyone in the MLB, hitting for a .361 average with a .917 slugging percentage and a 1.427 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Soto’s been more consistent against right-handed pitching this season, although he’s flashed more power against lefties. He gets an elite matchup against Matt Moore on this slate, and Soto can be used in all leagues if you have the salary for him.

Gavin Sheets

Sheets has been struggling a bit in recent games. He owns a .172 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. On the season, Sheets’ recorded a .406 wOBA and a .365 ISO against right-handed pitching. Even with the recent struggles, Sheets gets a great matchup against Brad Keller. Sheets is expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox lineup. He makes an outstanding option for a low price tag, although he does come with risk.

Bryce Harper/Andrew McCutchen

Harper and McCutchen have both found plenty of success in recent games. Harper’s hitting for a .314 average with 5 extra-base hits, 1 RBI, and 5 stolen bases over his last 10 games. McCutchen’s also looked great, posting a .323 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. They both get a great matchup against Erick Fedde in Philadelphia tonight, as well. Both of these players can be considered in all leagues tonight.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID
BOS			Paul Blackburn			621,112
CLE			Logan Gilbert			669,302
LAD			Logan Webb			657,277
DET			Luis Severino			622,663
OAK			Tanner Houck			656,557
NYY			Tommy Henry			674,072
TOR			J.P. France			641,585
HOU			Kevin Gausman			592,332
ARI			Marcus Stroman			573,186
STL
SEA			Ben Lively			594,902
LAD			Logan Webb			657,277
NYM			Kenta Maeda			628,317
SF			James Paxton			572,020








Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%
Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%
Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We’re back to a massive slate with several elite stacking options. Below, I’ll list my favorite five for tonight.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

WAS – Escobar/Turner/Soto/Zimmerman/Harrison

CHC – Ortega/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Wisdom

MIN – Polanco/Garver/Kepler/Donaldson/Rooker

TOR – Springer/Guerrero/Semien/Bichette/Hernandez

PHI – Segura/Realmuto/Harper/McCutchen/Hoskins

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

WAS – Truner/Soto/Harrison

TOR – Springer/Guerrero/Bichette

MIN – Polanco/Garver/Donaldson

CHC – Ortega/Bryant/Rizzo

PHI – Realmuto/Harper/McCutchen

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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