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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/28/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Walker Buehler

There are two aces on the slate tonight in Buehler and Zack Wheeler. Wheeler boasts the better advanced metrics, while Buehler gets the better matchup. I slightly favor Buehler, although neither is a bad play tonight. The Los Angeles Dodgers ace owns a 2.31 ERA with a 3.62 xFIP and a 26.4% strikeout rate through 20 starts. He gets a solid matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who Buehler is averaging 24.2 DK points per game against in 4 starts this season. He’s currently a -134 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs, making him the top arm on this slate.

Tylor Megill

Megill’s only started 6 games this season, but he’s flashed for the New York Mets. He owns a 2.10 ERA with a 3.78 xFIP and a 27% strikeout rate. Megill gets a solid matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who continue to struggle with injuries throughout their offense. His price tag continues to creep up, although it’s still a bit too cheap. He’s given up only 2 runs over his last 4 starts, averaging 18.9 DK points per game over that span. Megill’s a -127 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s a solid option in all leagues on this slate.

Andrew Heaney

Heaney’s due for quite a bit of positive regression, as his 5.32 ERA sits well above his 3.83 xFIP. He also boasts a 27.9% strikeout rate through 17 starts. Heaney’s been a boom or bust option for the majority of the season, and he’s coming off of a 25.6 DK point performance against the Minnesota Twins. He gets an elite matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who feature the worst road offense in the MLB. Heaney’s a -205 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight. Even with his struggles throughout the season, he’s a great salary relief option in all leagues tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Zack Wheeler, Lucas Giolito, Madison Bumgarner (FanDuel), Anthony DeSclafani, Nestor Cortes, Michael Wacha

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

JT Realmuto

It isn’t often that there are several catcher options that I really like on the slate, but that’s the case tonight. Realmuto leads the group, although he’s only hitting for a .209 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He’s been significantly more powerful at home in 2021, and he gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly stadium. He’s expected to hit second in the Phillies lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.

Jonah Heim

Assuming he’s in the lineup, Heim is an elite punt option on this slate. He’s only hitting for a .171 average with 1 extra-base hits, 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Heim’s been more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching this season, and he gets a solid matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. Furthermore, he’s expected to hit fifth in the Texas Rangers lineup. Heim isn’t a great hitter by any means, but he’s in a plus matchup, hitting in the middle of the lineup, and the minimum price. He’s the best punt option tonight.

1B

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani’s been struggling a bit in recent games, although he’s still an elite fantasy option. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .256 average with a .564 slugging percentage and a .905 OPS. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in those contests. Ohtani gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight, as well. He’s recorded a .428 wOBA and a .392 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Ohtani can be used in all leagues, even for his expensive salary.

Joey Votto

Votto’s been arguably the hottest hitter in the MLB in recent games, posting a .389 average with a .944 slugging percentage and a 1.433 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 8 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 13 RBIs over that span. Votto’s recorded 5 home runs over his last 4 games. He gets a great matchup against Zach Davies, who possesses some of the worst advanced metrics on the slate. Votto enters this game with .136 wOBA and .162 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’s still not priced appropriately, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

2B

Kike Hernandez

Hernandez’s price tag continues to be on the rise, although it’s still well below where it should be. He’s caught fire in recent games, posting a .275 average with a .675 slugging percentage and a 1.008 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 9 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs over that span. Hernandez has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and he gets a matchup against Steven Matz, who has struggled with home runs at times this season, tonight. Keep in mind, this game is only seven innings, but Hernandez makes an elite option.

Jean Segura

Segura’s another option that’s too cheap for his matchup and recent success. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .262 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Segura gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin in Philadelphia. Segura’s hitting .322 with power at home this season. He’s leading off for the Philadelphia Phillies, and Segura can be used in all leagues for his sub-$4k price tag.

3B

Alec Bohm

Bohm’s been a bit of a disappointment throughout the season, and that has been the case in recent games, as well. He owns a .286 average with 1 home run and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, and he boasts a .358 wOBA and a .153 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Bohm’s only expected to hit seventh in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, but he’s an interesting option on this slate.

Isan Diaz

I wrote up Diaz last night, he scored 10 DK points, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s hitting for a .269 average with 3 extra-base hits over his last 10 games. He also gets a plus matchup against Jorge Lopez tonight. Diaz boasts .118 wOBA and .096 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s the minimum price and expected to hit second in the Miami Marlins lineup. If that’s the case, he’s a solid punt option at one of my least favorite positions on the slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Tim Anderson

Anderson continues to flash for the Chicago White Sox. He’s only hitting for a .238 average over his last 10 games, but he owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 4 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Anderson gets a great matchup against Kris Bubic tonight, and he boasts a .358 wOBA and a .186 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career. The White Sox shortstop will lead off for them tonight, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.

Jose Iglesias

Iglesias has caught fire in recent games, posting a .351 average with 5 extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He’s found more success at home, as well. Iglesias gets a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who’s struggled against either handedness this season. The Los Angeles Angels infielder continues to come with a low price tag, even though he’s hitting fifth in the lineup. He’s a solid option in all leagues for a reasonable price tag.

OF

Rafael Ortega

Ortega continues to produce as the Chicago Cubs lead-off hitter. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .440 average with a .600 slugging percentage and a 1.062 OPS. Ortega gets a tough matchup against Tyler Mahle tonight, with the wind blowing out toward left field tonight. Although I don’t love the matchup, Ortega continues to be far too cheap for his recent success and new role. He’s a solid option in all leagues on this slate.

Cedric Mullins

Mullins is enjoying an elite 2021 season for the Baltimore Orioles. He’s hitting for a .368 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .964 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 1 RBI. Mullins gets a plus matchup against Jordan Holloway tonight, and he enters this game with a .402 wOBA and a .244 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He’s leading off for the Baltimore Orioles, and he can be considered in all leagues.

Andrew McCutchen

Why would McCutchen’s price tag drop from last night? No one knows. He boasts a .314 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.105 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs. McCutchen gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin tonight. He owns a .434 wOBA and a .322 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. McCutchen is one of the most mispriced players on the slate, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.

Eloy Jimenez

Jimenez recently returned from injury, but his price tag hasn’t been adjusted for how good of a player he is. In only 2 games, he’s hitting for a .250 average with 1 home run and 3 RBIs. Jimenez’s price tag should be well over $4k against any pitcher. He gets an elite matchup against Kris Bubic tonight, as well. The White Sox outfielder is as close to a lock as you can get in MLB.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

There are 11 games tonight with plenty of interesting stacks available. Below are my favorite options. Keep in mind, the Toronto/Boston game is only seven innings tonight.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

LAA – Fletcher/Ohtani/Upton/Walsh/Iglesias

CHW – Anderson/Vaughn/Abreu/Jimenez/Moncada

ARI – Calhoun/Smith/Escobar/Walker/Peralta

BOS – Hernandez/Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez/Renfroe

BAL – Mullins/Hays/Mancini/Stewart/Urias

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Anderson/Abreu/Jimenez

LAA – Ohtani/Walsh/Iglesias

BOS – Hernandez/Bogaerts/Martinez

ARI – Smith/Escobar/Walker

BAL – Mullins/Hays/Mancini

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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