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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/29/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Freddy Peralta

It’s a relatively weak slate with only 5 games tonight. Freddy Peralta’s found plenty of success this season, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 3.71 xFIP and a 35% strikeout rate through 19 games (18 starts). He gets a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, although they don’t strike out at a high rate. With that being said, Peralta’s a -184 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. He’s the top option on a weak slate, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

Joe Musgrove

Musgrove’s found continued success for the San Diego Padres this season. Through 20 games (19 starts), he owns a 3.13 ERA with a 3.47 xFIP and a 27.4% strikeout rate. He gets an elite matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who feature the worst road offense in the MLB. Musgrove’s currently a -270 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight. He’s entirely too cheap for his talent and the matchup. Musgrove is another player that can be used in all leagues, and he’s the top SP2 option to pair with Peralta in cash games.

Dylan Bundy

Bundy’s struggled quite a bit this season, although he’s due for positive regression. He’s posted a 6.69 ERA with a 4.39 xFIP and a 22% strikeout rate through 18 games (14 starters). Bundy’s been throwing in a relief role, although I expect him to be able to throw 80+ pitches tonight if needed. He gets a solid matchup against the Oakland A’s, and he’s a -116 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. Bundy’s an extremely cheap option on a small slate. Normally, he wouldn’t be considered, but he can be used as a salary relief option with a lack of great arms tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Eduardo Rodriguez, Frankie Montas

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Eric Haase

Haase’s finally the most expensive catcher on the slate and for good reason. He’s hitting for a .265 average with a .676 slugging percentage and a 1.035 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 14 RBIs over that span. Haase owns a .448 wOBA and a .403 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and he gets an elite matchup against Alexander Wells tonight. He’s a great option for the Detroit Tigers tonight.

Austin Nola

Nola recently returned from injury, and his price tag represents his struggles prior to his injury rather than his talent. He’s seen some success since returning from injury. Nola gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, and he boasts a .205 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Nola’s only expected to hit eighth in the San Diego Padres lineup, and he makes an outstanding option on this slate for his current price tag.

1B

Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero’s cooled off in recent games, although he’s still found some success. He’s posted a .250 average with a .472 slugging percentage and a .797 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 3 RBIs in those contests. Guerrero gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. He’s performed well against left-handed pitching this season, recording a .392 wOBA and a .215 ISO this season. Guerrero isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an outstanding option tonight.

Miguel Cabrera

If you can’t get to the top of first base, Cabrera is a great option. He’s seen mixed results over his last 10 games, posting a .243 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 12 RBIs. Cabrera’s also recorded a .059 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching, although he’s been more powerful against righties this season. He gets an elite matchup against Alexander Wells. The Detroit Tigers are one of the better stacks on this slate, and Cabrera is a cheap way to get a piece of their offense.

2B

Kolten Wong

Wong continues to enjoy a solid season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He owns a .300 average with 1 home run, 3 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Wong’s a consistent option, who’s flashed some upside for his price tag, as well. He’s surprisingly been better against left-handed pitching this season, although he gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl tonight. Wong’s leading off for Milwaukee, and he’s a solid option in all leagues on this slate.

Adam Fraizer

Frazier’s looked outstanding this season, and he was recent traded to the San Diego Padres. He’s struggled a bit recently, though, posting a .250 average with 2 extra-base hits and 1 RBI over his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s now leading off for one of the best offenses in the MLB, adding to his overall upside. He also comes with entirely too low of a price tag for a great matchup against Kyle Freeland. Frazier can be used in all leagues, even with his recent struggles.

3B

Manny Machado

Machado’s quietly been playing at an elite level for the San Diego Padres. He’s hitting for a .359 average with a .718 slugging percentage and a 1.075 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those contests. Machado gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, and he boasts a .351 wOBA and a .222 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Machado’s an elite option in all leagues.

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario’s been heating up for the Detroit Tigers, posting a .297 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .923 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs in those contests. Candelario gets an elite matchup against Alexander Wells tonight. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Detroit Tigers lineup, making him an outstanding option on a limited slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Tatis has found plenty of success in recent games for the San Diego Padres. He owns a .324 average with a .647 slugging percentage and a 1.057 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Tatis gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, and he boasts a .372 wOBA and a .333 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Tatis is under $6k for the first time in a few games, and he’s an elite option at the top of shortstop tonight.

Willy Adames

Adames has looked outstanding during his time with the Milwaukee Brewers this season. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a .282 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .866 OPS. He’s recorded 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those contests. Adames is hitting second in the Milwaukee offense, and he gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl tonight. If you’re looking to save more salary at this position, Zack Short makes a great option.

OF

Kike Hernandez

Hernandez’s price tag is finally where it should be, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use him. He’s been playing at an elite level, posting a .300 average with a .700 slugging percentage and a 1.070 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 9 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs over that span. Hernandez gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Hyun Jin Ryu, but he can be used in all leagues as the Boston Red Sox lead-off hitter.

Cedric Mullins

I recommended Mullins last night, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s been enjoying an elite season for the Baltimore Orioles, recording a .333 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .888 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 6 extra-base hits (1 home run), 1 RBI, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Mullins gets a solid matchup against Casey Mize tonight. He’s leading off for Baltimore, and he’s still a bit too cheap for his talent and production.

Tommy Pham

Pham’s seen mixed results for the San Diego Padres throughout the season. He’s been struggling a bit recently, recording a .176 average with 1 home run and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. Pham’s been better against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and he gets a great matchup against Kyle Freeland tonight. He isn’t necessarily the cheapest option on the slate, but Pham’s a player I’m willing to use in a cold streak because of the matchup.

Akil Baddoo

Baddoo’s caught fire in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .295 average with a .636 slugging percentage and a .977 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 9 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Generally, I prefer Baddoo against right-handed pitching, although he gets a plus matchup against Alexander Wells in this game. I also don’t expect Wells to throw deep into this game, meaning Baddoo could see a right-handed pitcher out of the bullpen. He’s a bit too cheap for his recent success.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

There are only 5 games on the slate tonight, limiting our stacking options. Still, I’ll list my favorite five below, although I believe the top stacks are significantly better than the next tier.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Haase/Cabrera/Candelario

SD – Frazier/Tatis/Machado/Pham/Myers

BOS – Hernandez/Bogaerts/Martinez/Renfroe/Vazquez

MIL – Wong/Adames/Escobar/Narvaez/Garcia

BAL – Mullins/Hays/Mancini/Stewart/Urias

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Haase

SD – Tatis/Machado/Pham

MIL – Adames/Escobar/Narvaez

BOS – Hernandez/Marintez/Renfroe

BAL – Mullins/Hays/Mancini

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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