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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/3/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses this data along with the player pool that is available with our premium package. You can find that here, in our Premium Core Plays

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw continues to throw at a high level for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He boasts a 2.84 xFIP and a 30.5% strikeout rate through 17 starts. Kershaw’s been a consistent option while flashing 40+ DK point upside. He gets a plus matchup against the Washington Nationals, who have found plenty of offensive success in recent games. With that being said, there are very limited pitching options on the main slate, and Kershaw is the best play, even at his price tag.

Yu Darvish

Darvish is the top option on the early slate. He’s found success through 16 games, posting a 3.72 xFIP to go along with a 30.5% strikeout rate. Darvish has struggled more on the road, but his last 3 road starts have been in Coors (twice) and Houston. He gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies in a hitter-friendly stadium today. With that being said, there are plenty of strikeouts in the Philadelphia lineup. This is also a relatively small slate with six games, and there aren’t many high-end pitching options.

Kyle Muller

Muller’s an interesting option on this slate. He’s only thrown in 3 games (2 starts) this season, posting a 3.71 xFIP with a 32.5% strikeout rate. He’s coming off of a 31.5 DK point performance against the Cincinnati Reds. Muller’s Minor League stats suggest that he isn’t going to be able to continue this success. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who have struggled against left-handed pitching. Muller’s fully stretched out for the Atlanta Braves, and he’s far too cheap for this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Eric Lauer, Tyler Mahle, Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb, Marco Gonzales

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Omar Narvaez

Narvaez hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, recording a .172 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. Even with some recent struggles, he’s been relatively consistent with upside over that span. Narvaez gets a plus matchup against Cody Ponce today. The Milwaukee catcher also enters this game with .029 wOBA and .048 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Brewers lineup, making him an outstanding option today.

Yadier Molina

Molina’s posted a .250 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .686 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 7 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Molina’s also coming off of a 31 DK point performance last night. He gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland in Coors, and Molina brings a .429 wOBA and a .343 ISO against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s oddly cheaper than last night, and he’s the top option at catcher tonight.

1B

Freddie Freeman

Freeman’s found quite a bit of success in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .375 average with 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s been better at home, where he’s averaging 9.3 DK points per game this season. Freeman gets a plus matchup against Sandy Alcantara tonight. Furthermore, he enters this game with .082 wOBA and .064 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching in 2021.

LaMonte Wade Jr. 

Shohei Ohtani and Paul Goldschmidt are elite options at this position, but Wade is a cheaper play that sticks out. He’s caught fire in recent games, posting a .294 average with 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s been somewhat of a boom or bust option, but he boasts unmatched upside for his price tag. Wade gets a plus matchup against Jake Faria and a weak Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Wade’s expected to lead off for the San Francisco Giants, and he’s an elite salary relief play. It’s important to note that because of their outfield eligibility, Wade, Ohtani, and Goldschmidt can all be used together tonight.

2B

Ozzie Albies

Some of the hottest players in the MLB are available at this position on the early slate. In other words, there are several elite options at this position that you can choose from. Albies may be the hottest of the group, posting a .350 average with 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 6 stolen bases over his last 10 games. He boasts elite upside because of his combination of speed and power, and he gets a plus matchup against Sandy Alcantara today. Albies is averaging 11.6 DK points per game at home this season, and he’s an outstanding option tonight.

Tony Kemp

Kemp’s cooled off a bit in recent games. He’s hitting for a .241 average with 3 extra-base hits and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Although he’s struggled a bit in recent games, Kemp is expected to lead off for the Oakland A’s. He gets an elite matchup against Garrett Richards, who openly admitted he’s somewhat re-learning how to pitch at this point. Oakland should find plenty of success in this game, and it will start with Kemp.

3B

Hunter Dozier

This is an extremely weak position on the early slate, meaning it makes sense to spend down here. Dozier’s only hitting for a .226 average with 4 extra-base hits over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against Griffin Jax and the Minnesota Twins bullpen tonight, though. I expected the Kansas City Royals offense to find plenty of success in this matchup, and Dozier is a cheap way to get a piece of that offense.

Nolan Arenado

If you can spend up tonight, Arenado is the top option. The former Rockie has struggled in his return, scoring 7 DK points in his last 2 games. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland tonight. Arenado brings .063 wOBA and .071 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. It’s unlikely he goes overlooked on this slate, although his price tag and recent struggles as chalk could keep his ownership a bit lower than it should be.

SS

Willy Adames

Adames has been heating up once again, recording a .333 average with a .694 slugging percentage and a 1.161 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Adames continues to find success, specifically on the road, and he gets a great matchup against Cody Ponce. The Brewers shortstop is expected to hit second in their offense today, making him an outstanding option for his price tag.

Trevor Story

Similar to Arenado, if you have the ability to spend up on Story, you have to tonight. On the season, he’s hitting for a .303 average with 17 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 25 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases over 38 home games. Throughout his career, Story owns a ridiculous .449 wOBA and .384 ISO against left-handed pitching in Colorado. He gets an elite matchup against Wade LeBlanc tonight, as well. Story is likely the top spend-up on the entire slate.

OF

Milwaukee Brewers

I initially wanted to outline Jace Peterson here, but it doesn’t make sense not to mention Christian Yelich and Avisail Garcia (and Jackie Bradley Jr. to a lesser extent). All four of them can be used with Peterson being a top option for his price tag. He’s hitting for a .462 average with 6 extra-base hits (1 home run), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. The Brewers outfielders get a great matchup against Cody Ponce, and they’re all outstanding plays on this slate.

Andrew Vaughn

Vaughn’s seen mixed results this season, although he’s caught fire in recent games. He’s hitting for a .367 average with a .733 slugging percentage and a 1.116 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Vaughn also owns .193 wOBA and .241 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against Tarik Skubal today. Vaughn’s far too cheap for his recent success, and he’s an outstanding salary relief option.

Coors Game

Once again, we have two bad pitchers with two bad bullpens in Colorado. Any of the outfielders that are starting in either lineup can be used on this slate. Each team features high-priced and salary relief options. Keep in mind, the hitters near the top of the order are better options, as they’ll see more opportunities at the plate.

Mike Yastrzemski

If you aren’t going all the way up to Ohtani tonight, Yastrzemski makes a solid option. He’s hitting for a .233 average with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. More importantly, he gets a plus matchup against Jake Faria and a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks offense. Yastrzemski is dealing with an injury, though, so make sure he’s in the San Francisco lineup before the game locks.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have plenty of games broken down over two slates today. Ultimatley, the stacks below come from either of those two slates.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

STL – Carlson/Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill/Molina

COL – Hampson/Daza/Story/Blackmon/Rodgers

HOU – Altuve/Brantley/Gurriel/Tucker/Correa

MIL – Yelich/Adames/Narvaez/Garcia/Peterson

OAK – Kemp/Chapman/Olson/Lowrie/Laureano

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

STL – Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill

COL – Hampson/Story/Blackmon

HOU – Altuve/Brantley/Tucker

LAA – Ohtani/Rendon/Walsh

MIL – Yelich/Adames/Garcia

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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