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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/30/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Corbin Burnes

Burnes is enjoying a potential Cy Young season, posting a 2.12 ERA with a 2.18 xFIP and a 36.6% strikeout rate through 17 starts. He’s scored 23+ DK points in each of his last 5 starts, including a 43.2 DK point performance against the Cincinnati Reds. Burnes gets a solid matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight. They’re dealing with several significant injuries, limiting their offensive potential. Burnes is a -133 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. Lance Lynn boasts a better Vegas line, but the Milwaukee ace is the top option on this slate.

Jose Berrios

Berrios is surprisingly cheap for his success in 2021. He enters this game with a 3.48 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, and 28.9% strikeout rate through 20 starts. He’s been inconsistent at times, but he’s averaging 22.7 DK points per game over his last 4 starts. Berrios gets a solid matchup against a right-handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals lineup tonight. He’s a -118 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. There are several outstanding pitching options on this slate, and Berrios is arguably the top mid-tier arm.

Touki Toussaint

Toussaint continues to boast the most ridiculous DraftKings price tag on the slate. Through only 2 starts, he’s recorded a 1.32 ERA with a 2.54 xFIP and a 29.4% strikeout rate. He’s scored 23.4 and 30.8 DK points in his 2 starts, and Toussaint continues to progress as a pitcher. He gets a solid matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who come with upside as an offense but also feature plenty of strikeouts. Toussaint is a +123 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, but he can be used in all leagues because of his ridiculous price tag.

Other GPP Targets: Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, Jameson Taillon, Ryan Weathers, Framber Valdez, Tony Gonsolin

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Will Smith

Smith’s caught fire for the Los Angeles Dodgers in recent games. He’s hitting for a .314 average with a .771 slugging percentage and a 1.186 OPS over his last 10 contests. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 16 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Smith gets a tough matchup against Zac Gallen, although he enters this game with .173 wOBA and .180 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. Smith’s expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles lineup, and he’s an elite option tonight. Willson Contreras and JT Realmuto are other high-priced options that can be considered on this slate.

Cal Raleigh

If you’re looking to spend down at catcher, Raleigh is an outstanding option. He’s seen mixed results in only 9 games this season, posting a .200 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs. He’s quietly averaging 11 DK points per game over his last 5 starts, though. Raleigh gets a plus matchup against Kolby Allard, who’s struggled throughout the season. The Seattle catcher’s expected to hit fifth in their lineup, making him an outstanding punt option tonight.

1B

Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero’s been a staple in this article in recent games. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .289 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .951 OPS. He’s posted 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those games. Guerrero gets an elite matchup against Daniel Lynch tonight. Although he’s been better against right-handed pitching, he boasts a .392 wOBA and a .207 ISO against lefties in 2021. Guerrero continues to be one of the most expensive hitters on the slate, but he’s an elite option tonight.

Jake Cronenworth

Cronenworth’s been struggling over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns a .211 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 6 RBIs. He’s been drastically better at home, where he owns a .302 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS this season. Cronenworth gets a plus matchup against Jon Gray, although this could be a bullpen game for the Colorado Rockies if Gray is traded. Cronenworth also boasts a .359 wOBA and a .201 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit third in the San Diego Padres lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.

2B

Marcus Semien

Semien’s seen mixed results in recent games for the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s hitting for a .289 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .815 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs over that span. Semien gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch, and he’s recorded a .348 wOBA and a .207 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s hitting third in what projects to be one of the best offenses on the slate. 

Adam Fraizer

Frazier didn’t start against a left-handed pitcher last night, but he’s expected to start against Jon Gray tonight. He hasn’t been playing at a high level, hitting for a .225 average with 1 extra-base hit and 1 RBI over that span. With that being said, he’s found plenty of success this season, posting a .320 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .823 OPS. Fraizer’s expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres, adding to his overall upside. He’s far too cheap on this slate, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.

3B

Kris Bryant

Bryant’s been performing well with the trade deadline looming. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a .286 average with a .643 slugging percentage and a 1.102 OPS. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs in those contests. Bryant gets a great matchup against Jon Lester tonight. He enters this game with a .473 wOBA and a .367 ISO against left-handed pitching. Keep in mind, Bryant is likely to be traded today, so keep an eye on his status prior to lock.

Yoan Moncada

Oddly enough, third base is one of my least favorite positions on this slate once again. Moncada’s seen mixed results in recent games, recording a .211 average with 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs. More importantly, Moncada’s playing at home, where he owns a .305 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .894 OPS this season. He gets a great matchup against J.C. Mejia, who’s struggled with home runs throughout the season. Moncada’s expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s a solid option at this position.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Bo Bichette

Bichette continues to play at an elite level for the Toronto Blue Jays. He boasts a .306 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .905 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 9 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Bichette’s a versatile option that can score fantasy points in several ways. He gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch tonight, as well. Bichette brings a .407 wOBA and a .189 ISO against left-handed pitching into this game, and he’s expected to hit fourth in the Toronto lineup. He’s an elite high-priced option at this position.

Didi Gregorius

Gregorius has struggled throughout the season, including over his last 10 games. He’s posted a .167 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs over that span. Gregorius owns .061 wOBA and .088 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he gets an elite matchup against Wil Crowe. The latter’s struggled with home runs throughout the season, and Gregorius boasts solid power. He isn’t an overly consistent hitter, but he makes a solid option for his price tag tonight.

OF

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have four outfield options that can be used on this slate. George Springer’s been playing at an elite level, averaging 12.1 DK points per game over his last 10 games. He’s the top option for his price. Teoscar Hernandez has also found plenty of success in recent games, although he’s more expensive than Springer. He’s the second-best option for the Blue Jays. Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are in a tier below them, although both can be used. Their value will depend on the starting lineup tonight.

Akil Baddoo

Baddoo continues to play well for the Detroit Tigers. He’s hitting for a .250 average with a .591 slugging percentage and a .903 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 9 RBIs over that span. Baddoo gets a great matchup against Matt Harvey, and he boasts .188 wOBA and .267 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s leading off for the Detroit Tigers, making him an outstanding option on this slate.

Austin Hays

Hays hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, posting a .237 average with 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 contests. He gets a solid matchup against Tarik Skubal, entering this game with a .385 wOBA and a .217 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021. Hays is expected to hit second in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, and he’s an elite salary relief option in the outfield tonight.

Bryce Harper/Andrew McCutchin

Harper’s day-to-day with back spasms, but he’ll make an elite option if he’s in the starting lineup. He’s hitting for a .429 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.314 OPS over his last 10 games. Harper’s also a significantly better option against right-handed pitching, and he gets an elite matchup against Wil Crowe tonight. Andrew McCutchen has found more success against left-handed pitching, but he can be used in all leagues in this matchup. He’s hitting for a .314 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.114 OPS over his last 10 games.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We’re back to a massive slate tonight. There are several elite hitting spots, and below are my favorite stacks of the evening.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

TOR – Springer/Guerrero/Semien/Bichette/Hernandez

PHI – Segura/Realmuto/Harper/McCutchen/Miller

CHW – Hernandez/Moncada/Anderson/Abreu/Sheets

SD – Frazier/Tatis/Cronenworth/Machado/Hosmer

DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Grossman/Haase/Candelario

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

TOR – Springer/Guerrero/Bichette

CHW – Hernandez/Moncada/Anderson

PHI – Harper/Anderson/Miller

DET – Baddoo/Grossman/Haase

SD – Tatis/Cronenworth/Machado

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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