Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/31/21)

by
Justin
July 31, 2021

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID
Chase Anderson	R	BOS	OAK		OAK	6,600				1.76	17.20%	8.90%	1.77	0.29	9.20	43.00%	31.70%	5.17	1.42	8.30		502,624
Triston McKenzie	R	CLE	SEA		SEA	9,000	16.60			2.00	21.90%	17.80%	0.56	0.26	10.30	52.30%	45.50%	5.95	1.56	4.10		663,474
Jose Berrios	R	TOR	HOU		HOU	7,900				2.95	23.50%	6.70%	1.19	0.29	11.00	37.10%	35.80%	4.08	1.19	16.90		621,244
Justin Verlander	R	HOU	TOR		HOU	9,900				2.69	21.50%	6.70%	1.00	0.27	9.90	44.80%	40.80%	4.43	1.13	14.80		434,378
Luis Castillo	R	SEA	CLE		SEA	9,400				3.36	27.30%	7.00%	1.28	0.27	14.70	42.40%	41.80%	3.74	1.10	20.30		622,491
Randy Vasquez	R	SD	STL		SD	7,200				1.48	19.90%	10.80%	1.19	0.24	6.90	41.80%	37.80%	4.93	1.27	9.00		681,190
Yoshinobu Yamamoto			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Alex Wood	L	OAK	BOS	23.30	OAK	6,900				3.08	17.30%	9.80%	0.83	0.30	9.00	36.70%	37.40%	4.98	1.43	7.50		622,072
Nestor Cortes	L	NYY	ARI	19.50	ARI	6,600				5.05	25.20%	7.50%	1.56	0.29	10.40	57.10%	40.90%	4.35	1.25	17.70		641,482
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID

Yu Darvish

Darvish’s performed well for the San Diego Padres this season. Through 20 starts, he owns a 3.27 ERA with a 3.86 xFIP and a 28.9% strikeout rate. Most importantly, Darvish gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who feature the worst road offense in the MLB. He’s averaging 22.7 DK points per game in San Diego this season. Darvish is currently a -191 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs. He’s the top pitcher on the slate, and he can be locked in as your SP1 in cash games.

Aaron Nola

This is a great slate for a double spend-up at pitcher, as Nola and Brandon Woodruff make outstanding options as your SP2. Of the two, I slightly prefer Nola. He’s struggled with a 4.37 ERA through 20 starts. With that being said, he’s due for positive regression, owning a 3.41 xFIP in those innings. He also owns a 29% strikeout rate in 2021. Nola gets a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who struggle offensively, although they don’t strike out at the highest rate. Regardless, Nola is a -168 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he can be used in all leagues, even with his road struggles this season.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson’s seen mixed results throughout the 2021 season. He owns a 4.35 ERA with a 4.41 xFIP and a 20% strikeout rate through 18 starts. Although he doesn’t boast elite strikeout upside, Anderson recently flashed upside, scoring 28.2 DK points against the Milwaukee Brewers. He gets an elite matchup against the Texas Rangers, who own a slate-low .230 wOBA over the last 14 days. Texas also strikes out at one of the higher rates on the slate. Anderson is currently a -159 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s the top salary relief option on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Brandon Woodruff, Kyle Hendricks, Wade Miley, Rich Hill

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Mitch Garver

Garver’s been playing at an extremely high level for the Minnesota Twins since returning from injury. Through 5 starts, he’s averaging 14.4 DK points per game, recording 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs. There were some reports that Jon Lester would start the game tonight, although it’s looking more like that Jake Woodford will draw the start. Garver’s significantly better against left-handed pitching, but Woodford isn’t an option to shy away from. He’ll also benefit from at-bats against an atrocious St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. Garver’s expected to hit fifth in the Minnesota lineup, and he’s an elite option on this slate.

James McCann

McCann’s found some success over his last 10 games for the New York Mets. He’s hitting for a .370 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .874 OPS in those games. He’s been struggling with power in recent contests, and he’ll benefit from a matchup against Wade Miley tonight. McCann enters this game with .113 wOBA and .111 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He comes with an extremely cheap price tag, as he’s expected to hit fifth in the New York lineup. McCann can be used in all leagues on this slate.

1B

Max Muncy

Muncy’s been enjoying an outstanding stretch for the Los Angeles Dodgers in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he boasts a .300 average with a .575 slugging percentage and a .975 OPS. He owns 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those games. Muncy gets a plus matchup against Merrill Kelly in Arizona’s hitter-friendly stadium tonight. He’s been a reverse-splits hitter this season, although he’s recorded a .395 wOBA and a .274 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Muncy isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an outstanding option in all leagues as the two-hole hitter for LA.

Joey Votto

It’s impossible not to consider Votto every single night at this point. He’s the hottest hitter in the MLB, posting a .417 average with a 1.278 slugging percentage and a 1.789 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 11 extra-base hits (10 home runs) and 18 RBIs over that span. Overall, Votto’s averaging 19.3 DK points per game in those contests. He gets a tough matchup against Rich Hill, who’s due for regression. Votto’s significantly better against right-handed pitching, although he also gets a plus matchup against the New York Mets bullpen. Simply put, I’m favoring recent form over the handedness of the opposing pitcher.

2B

Cesar Hernandez

Hernandez is the clear-cut top option at second base tonight. He’s been on fire, hitting for a .325 average with a .625 slugging percentage and a 1.003 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs in those games. Hernandez gets a great matchup against Triston McKenzie and his former team. He’s hitting second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s at least $1k too cheap. He’s an easy plug-and-play until his price tag increases.

Eduardo Escobar

If you have the salary to pay up at this position, Escobar makes an interesting option. He’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .211 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .900 OPS over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he boasts 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs. Escobar gets a matchup against Kyle Muller, who’s thrown well in limited MLB innings but is due for regression. He’s been better against left-handed pitching in 2021, bringing a .367 wOBA and a .264 ISO against lefties into this game. Escobar’s expected to hit fourth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, making him an outstanding option on this slate.

3B

Abraham Toro

Toro’s caught fire for the Seattle Mariners. He’s hitting for a .281 average with a .781 slugging percentage and a 1.124 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. Toro’s quietly averaging 17.2 DK points per game over his last 5 contests, scoring 15+ DK points in each of those games. He gets a plus matchup against Taylor Hearn and a struggling Texas bullpen. Toro’s only expected to hit sixth in the Seattle lineup, but he’s an outstanding option in all leagues, especially if you’re looking to spend up on two pitchers tonight.

Yoan Moncada

Moncada’s been relatively consistent while flashing upside over his last few games. He’s been outstanding at home this season, though. Through 47 home games, he’s posted a .314 average with a .509 slugging percentage and a .920 OPS. He boasts 15 extra-base hits (9 home runs), 30 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Moncada gets a plus matchup against Triston McKenzie, who’s struggled throughout the season. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s a solid option in all leagues on this slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Willy Adames

Adames is no longer a cheap option, but he can still be considered in all leagues. He’s playing at a high level, hitting for a .278 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .922 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those contests. Adames gets a plus matchup against Kyle Muller tonight. He was drastically better against left-handed pitching last season, and he’s been more powerful against lefties in 2021. Adames is hitting second in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he can be used in all leagues.

Kyle Farmer

Farmer continues to be an interesting option for the Cincinnati Reds. He’s posted a .436 average with a .744 slugging percentage and a 1.232 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 4 RBIs over that span. Farmer owns a .397 wOBA and a .241 ISO against left-handed pitching, and he gets an interesting matchup against Rich Hill tonight. He’s only expected to hit eighth in the Cincinnati lineup, but he makes a great salary relief option on this slate.

OF

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has three outfielders in varying price ranges on this slate. Max Kepler is the highest upside option of the group, and he’s the preferred play as Minnesota’s lead-off hitter. Brent Rooker is expected to hit second in the lineup, and he’s another high upside option. He’s been playing well in recent games and boasts tremendous power. The final option is Trevor Larnach, who has been significantly better against right-handed pitching this season. He’s far too cheap for this matchup.

Rafael Ortega

There are several outstanding salary relief options in the outfield tonight. Ortega’s been playing well, posting a .367 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .906 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s leading off for the Chicago Cubs, and he gets a plus matchup against Joe Ross tonight. Ortega boasts .222 wOBA and .156 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’s a great salary relief option in all leagues on this slate.

Mitch Haniger

Haniger’s been cooling off in recent games, recording a .195 average over his last 10 contests. With that being said, he owns 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. Haniger gets a great matchup against Taylor Hearn tonight, and he enters this game with a .372 wOBA and a .287 ISO against left-handed pitching. Haniger’s expected to lead off for the Seattle Mariners, and he makes a great option in all leagues on this slate.

Lorenzo Cain

Cain recently returned from injury, and he’s found plenty of success in limited games back. He’s averaging 12.7 DK points per game in his 3 contests since rejoining Milwaukee, scoring 8+ DK points in each of those games. Cain gets a solid matchup against Kyle Muller tonight. Although he’s struggled at times this season against left-handed pitching, he’s found plenty of success against lefties throughout his career. Cain is another outfielder who’s underpriced, and he can be considered in all leagues.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID
BOS			Alex Wood			622,072
CLE			Luis Castillo			622,491
TOR			Justin Verlander			434,378
HOU			Jose Berrios			621,244
SEA			Triston McKenzie			663,474
SD
LAD
OAK			Chase Anderson			502,624
NYY
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD








Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%
Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%
Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have another large slate tonight with plenty of outstanding stacking options. Some may be obvious while others are a bit more hidden. Below are my favorite stacks on the slate.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Anderson/Hernandez/Abreu/Sheets/Moncada

LAD – Taylor/Muncy/Turner/Smith/Bellinger

MIL – Adames/Escobar/Garcia/Taylor/Cain

MIN – Kepler/Rooker/Polanco/Donaldson/Garver

NYM – Nimmo/Alonso/Baez/Davis/McCann

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Taylor/Muncy/Turner

CHW – Hernandez/Abreu/Moncada

MIL – Adames/Escobar/Garcia

NYM – Alonso/Baez/McCann

MIN – Kepler/Rooker/Polanco

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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