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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (8/2/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Tylor Megill

Megill’s been a pleasant surprise for the New York Mets this season. Through 7 starts, he owns a 2.04 ERA with a 3.89 xFIP and a 27.1% strikeout rate. He’s scored 16+ DK points in 5 of those 7 starts, flashing 25+ DK point upside. Most importantly, Megill gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins. Miami doesn’t strike out at this highest rate, but they have struggled offensively in recent games. The Marlins also sold some of their starters this season, leaving their offense depleted. Megill’s a -150 favorite in a game set at 7 runs, and he’s the top pitching option on this slate.

Andrew Heaney

Heaney’s arguably the most interesting option on this slate. He’s struggled with a 5.27 ERA through 18 starts this season. With that being said, he’s due for positive regression, as he owns a 3.81 xFIP in 2021. Heaney also boasts a 28.2% strikeout rate. He gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who have some power throughout their lineup but are far from a dominant offense. Heaney’s struggles with home runs are a concern in New York’s hitter-friendly stadium, but he’s a -251 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs. Essentially, you deciding between Heaney and Michael Wacha at similar price tags, and I prefer Heaney tonight.

Dane Dunning

Dunning’s seen mixed results this season, posting a 4.20 ERA with a 3.68 xFIP and a 23.4% strikeout rate through 19 starts. He’s been significantly better at home, where his xFIP dips to 3.08 and his strikeout rate increases to 27.1%. Dunning gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who’s been one of the worst offenses in the MLB over the last 14 days. Over that span, their team wOBA’s dipped under .275. Dunning’s a +117 underdog in a game set at only 7.5 runs. He’s an outstanding salary relief option on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Wacha, Eric Lauer, Josiah Gray

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Omar Narvaez

Narvaez is easily my top option at catcher tonight. He’s been struggling a bit, recording a .205 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, Narvaez gets an elite matchup against Bryse Wilson tonight. He enters this game with a .366 wOBA and a .165 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Narvaez should see plenty of time against a weak Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen, as Wilson hasn’t shown the ability to throw deep into games. He’s expected to hit third in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he’s an outstanding option in all leagues.

Tres Barrera

Barrera is an extremely interesting play tonight because of his limited at-bats in the MLB this season. He’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .290 average with 3 extra-base hits and 1 RBI over his last 10 games. Barrera gets a matchup against Ranger Suarez tonight, and he owns a .751 wOBA and a .875 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He can’t hold those metrics, but he’s hitting .500 with a 100% extra-base hit against left-handed pitching in 2021. Barrera is extremely cheap, and he can be considered as a salary relief option in all leagues tonight.

1B

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo’s been playing at an elite level in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .371 average with an .829 slugging percentage and a 1.317 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Rizzo gets a great matchup against Jorge Lopez tonight. He’s been significantly better against left-handed pitching this season, although he owns a .374 wOBA and a .227 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Rizzo will benefit greatly from playing the New York’s hitter-friendly stadium, and he’s expected to hit fourth in the Yankees lineup. Rizzo is an elite option in all leagues.

Rowdy Tellez

Tellez quietly caught fire over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .394 average with a .818 slugging percentage and a 1.251 OPS. He also owns 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those games. Tellez has looked outstanding in Milwaukee this season, and he gets a great matchup against Bryse Wilson tonight. He’s only been slightly more consistent against right-handed pitching throughout his career, although he’s been significantly more powerful against that handedness. Tellez is expected to hit fifth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he’s far too cheap for his recent production.

2B

Kolten Wong

Second base is potentially the weakest position on this slate with Wong being the only great option for his price tag. He’s hitting for a .302 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 3 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over his last 10 games. Wong gets an elite matchup against Bryse Wilson and Pittsburgh’s struggling bullpen. He’s leading off for one of the top projected offenses on this slate, and Wong makes a great option in all leagues at a terrible position. 

Jazz Chisholm

In tournaments, Chisholm makes an interesting option. He’s only hitting for a .229 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s a player with a great combination of speed and power. Chisholm gets a tough matchup against Tylor Megill, who’s thrown well this season but isn’t untouchable. He’s expected to lead off for the Miami Marlins, and he’s a high upside leverage option in GPPs tonight.

3B

Eduardo Escobar

You’re deciding between Escobar and DJ LeMahieu at the top of this position, and I prefer the former. He’s only hitting for a .184 average over his last 10 games, but he boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs in those contests. Escobar boasts tremendous upside on a nightly basis, and he gets an elite matchup against Bryse Wilson tonight. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup tonight. They’re projected as one of the best offenses on the slate, meaning Escobar should see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points in this game.

Kyle Seager

Seager’s caught fire in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he’s hitting for a .270 average with a .595 slugging percentage and a .981 OPS. He owns 4 home runs and 12 RBIs in those games. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games. Seager gets a plus matchup against Michael Wacha, and he owns a .315 wOBA and a .214 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Seager’s hitting third in the Seattle Mariners lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues on tonight’s smaller slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Willy Adames

Adames continues to be an outstanding option on what seems to be a nightly basis. He’s hitting for a .231 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. More importantly, Adames gets an elite matchup against Bryse Wilson and the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen. It’s no secret that the Milwaukee Brewers are one of my favorite offenses on this slate, and Adames is expected to hit second in their lineup. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he can be used in all leagues on this slate.

Brandon Crawford

Crawford recently missed time, but he’s been playing at a high level for quite some time. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .412 average with a .588 slugging percentage and a 1.050 OPS. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Crawford enters this game with a .408 wOBA and a .267 ISO against right-handed pitching, and he’ll face off against Taylor Widener. Crawford’s an outstanding option in all leagues tonight.

OF

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco is one of my favorite stacks on this slate, and they have several outfielders that can be used tonight. Mike Yastrzemski hasn’t been playing overly well, but he hits right-handed pitching well, and he’s an outstanding option tonight. Assuming he’s in the lineup, LaMonte Wade has been playing well and can be used in all leagues. Kris Bryant, Steven Duggar, and Alex Dickerson can all be considered on this slate, as well, although they’re best suited for GPPs.

New York Yankees

Joey Gallo is the clear top option for New York tonight. He’s been struggling, but he’s a powerful option that will benefit from playing in New York’s hitter-friendly stadium. Aaron Judge is the top elite option, while Giancarlo Stanton sits in a tier below them. If they’re in the lineup, Tyler Wade and Brett Gardner can be considered as low-owned salary relief options in a top offense.

Lorenzo Cain

Cain recently returned from injury, and he’s been playing at a high level since rejoining the Milwaukee Brewers. In his 5 games back, he’s averaging 11.4 DK points per game. His price tag doesn’t represent that, though. Cain also gets a great matchup against Bryse Wilson tonight. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Milwaukee lineup tonight, but Cain has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues tonight.

Austin Hays

Hays is a cheap option in an interesting matchup. He hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, posting a .152 average with 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Hays gets a matchup against Andrew Heaney, who’s struggled with home runs this season. He brings .098 wOBA and .042 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Hays is hitting second in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, and he’ll benefit from playing in New York’s stadium tonight. He’s a great salary relief option in GPPs tonight.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a smaller seven game slate tonight with three offenses that stand above the rest. Below are my five favorite stacks with the top three being in a tier of their own.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

MIL – Wong/Adames/Narvaez/Escobar/Tellez

SF – Wade/Bryant/Yastrzemski/Posey/Crawford

NYY – LeMahieu/Gallo/Judge/Rizzo/Stanton

TB – Lowe/Meadows/Cruz/Choi/Arozarena

WAS – Robles/Escobar/Soto/Bell/Barrera

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

MIL – Adames/Narvaez/Tellez

NYY – Gallo/Judge/Rizzo

SF – Bryant/Yastrzemski/Crawford

TB – Lowe/Meadows/Cruz

WAS – Escobar/Soto/Bell

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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