MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/14/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/14/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Gerrit Cole

Cole comes in as the best pitcher on the slate in several categories. He boasts a 2.78 ERA with a 2.81 xFIP and a 34.7% strikeout rate through 26 starts. He’s posted 25+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a 45.4 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Angels. Cole gets an interesting matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who’ve recorded a .324 team wOBA with a 23.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’ll be throwing in a hitter-friendly stadium, but he’s a -322 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs. Cole is the top option on this slate, and he can safely be used in all leagues.

Lucas Giolito

Giolito’s seen mixed results throughout the 2021 season. Through 27 starts, he owns a 3.69 ERA with a 3.74 xFIP and a 28.2% strikeout rate. He’s struggled at times, although he recently flashed 40 DK point upside against a tough Houston Astros lineup. Giolito gets a much better matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. They’ve been struggling with a .264 team wOBA and a 27.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. The key to this play is Giolito’s limitations. He’s coming off of the IL, although it was a sho stint. If he’s announced for a full workload, he’s one of the best options on this slate. If he’s limited, he’ll be too expensive to use.

Erick Fedde

Fedde could end up being the ultimate game theory play on this season. He’s seen plenty of ups and downs through 24 starts in 2021, recording a 5.31 ERA with a 4.10 xFIP and a 21.6% strikeout rate. As you can see in my MLB Pitchers Chart below, Fedde gets one of the best matchups on the slate against the Miami Marlins. They enter this game with a .270 team wOBA and a 27.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Touki Toussaint is only $400 more expensive on DraftKings, potentially soaking up all the ownership in a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Although I like him as a play tonight, I’d prefer whichever of these two will be lower owned in GPPs on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Tony Gonsolin, Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Anthony DeSclafani, Touki Toussaint, Frankie Montas

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Yasmani Grandal

There are several elite high-priced catcher options with Grandal leading the way for me at the moment. He continues to be an elite option for the Chicago White Sox, recording a .433 average with a .800 slugging percentage and a 1.371 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those contests. Grandal gets a great matchup against Packy Naughton tonight, and he enters this game with a .491 wOBA and a .353 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Chicago lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.

Martin Maldonado

I’m willing to take a shot on any catcher that is starting for the Houston Astros because of their price tags tonight. Maldonado is expected to be that player, although he’s been struggling in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he owns a .107 average without any extra-base hits or RBIs. With that being said, Maldonado gets a great matchup against Jordan Lyles, and Houston is one of my favorite offenses on this slate. He’s extremely cheap, and he should see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points in this game.

1B

Max Muncy

I outlined Muncy last night, and he flopped. I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s been struggling, hitting for a .179 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, he boasts tremendous power, and he gets a great matchup against Luke Weaver tonight. Muncy will also see plenty of time against the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen, which is arguably the worst in the league at the moment. He’s hitting second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and Muncy can be considered in all leagues tonight.

Brandon Belt

Belt’s caught fire over his last 10 games, posting a .325 average with a .700 slugging percentage and a 1.138 OPS. He also owns 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 9 RBIs over that span. Belt’s found plenty of success against right-handed pitching throughout his career, and he gets a great matchup against Jake Arrieta tonight. He’s expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup, and this price tag is entirely too cheap for a player who’s averaging 18.5 DK points per game over his last 6 games.

2B

Jose Altuve

Once again, we have Altuve sitting as the top play at second base. He’s been playing well, posting a .325 average with a .625 slugging percentage and a 1.051 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 8 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs. Altuve gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles and a terrible Texas Rangers bullpen. He’s leading off for the Houston Astros, and he’s one of the best plays on the entire slate.

Tommy La Stella

I initially wanted to put DJ LeMahieu here because he’s underpriced, but it’s impossible to ignore La Stella’s price tag. He’s seen mixed results over his last 10 games, hitting for a .214 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .767 OPS. He does own 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those games. La Stella’s expected to lead off for the San Francisco Giants, and he gets a great matchup against Jake Arrieta tonight. He’s a salary relief option that can be used in all leagues at this position.

3B

Alex Bregman

Unsurprisingly, Bregman is the most mispriced player on the entire slate once again, and he’s clearly the top option at this position. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a .389 average with a .694 slugging percentage and a 1.119 OPS. He’s recorded 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 12 RBIs in those contests. Bregman gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles, and he’s expected to hit third in the Houston Astros lineup. He’s an easy plug-and-play again tonight, and there’s very little reason to move off of him at this point.

Carter Kieboom

If you need to save salary at third base, Kieboom makes an interesting option. He’s seen mixed results recently, hitting for a .225 average with 1 extra-base hit and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against Jesus Luzardo, who’s struggled with home runs throughout the season. Kieboom’s expected to hit sixth in the Washington Nationals lineup, and he’s one of the better salary relief options here.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Corey Seager

Seager’s another player who is grossly mispriced on this slate. He’s been playing well, recording a .300 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .939 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Seager gets a plus matchup against Luke Weaver and a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Similar to last night, he’s an elite option in all leagues, as he’s expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.

Didi Gregorius

Gregorius’ struggled this season, but he’s been heating up in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he boasts a .257 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .779 OPS. He posted 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs. Gregorius is at his best against right-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Adrian Sampson tonight. He’s only expected to hit sixth in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, but that’s represented in his price tag. Gregorius is a player best suited for tournaments on this slate.

OF

Houston Astros

We’re back on Houston here. It all depends on who draws the starts tonight. Yordan Alvarez is an outstanding option in all leagues. Kyle Tucker also boasts a high-priced tag, and he can be considered in all leagues against Jordan Lyles tonight. Michael Brantley is questionable once again. If he’s starting, he’s a great option on this slate. Chas McCormick is the final option, and he’s the minimum price tonight. HE’s an elite salary relief option. Keep in mind, any outfielder that is starting for Houston can be considered on this slate, although some may be better in GPPs.

Mookie Betts

The entire Los Angeles Dodgers outfield can be used here, although Betts sits well above the rest. He’s been on fire, hitting for a .364 average with a .576 slugging percentage and a 1.052 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. Betts gets a plus matchup against Luke Weaver, although we really want to take advantage of the matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He’s leading off for Los Angeles, and he’s an elite spend-up on this slate.

Philadelphia Phillies

Any of the Phillies outfielders can be considered on this slate. With that being said, there’s a clear pecking order if salary doesn’t matter. Bryce Harper’s been on fire, and he’s the top option, even if we are considering price. Odubel Herrera comes in second, as he’s leading off against Adrian Sampson tonight. Finally, Andrew McCutchen is a player that can be considered, although he isn’t someone that I’m forcing into my lineups by any stretch on this slate.

New York Yankees

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are two extremely powerful options that will benefit from the matchup against Alexander Wells in Baltimore’s hitter-friendly stadium. The sneaky option here is Joey Gallo, who comes with tremendous home run upside. He could go overlooked because of the lefty/lefty matchup, but he’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching this season.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We’re back to a larger 12 game slate tonight. There are several elite stacking options, and my five favorites are listed below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Gurriel/Correa

LAD – Betts/Muncy/Turner/Seager/Turner

OAK – Harrison/Marte/Olson/Chapman/Canha

NYY – LeMahieu/Judge/Rizzo/Stanton/Gallo

PHI – Herrera/Segura/Harper/Realmuto/Miller

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez

LAD – Betts/Muncy/Seager

NYY – Judge/Stanton/Gallo

OAK – Marte/Olson/Chapman

PHI – Herrera/Harper/Realmuto

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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