Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/18/21)

by
Justin
September 18, 2021

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID
Chase Anderson	R	BOS	OAK		OAK	6,600				1.76	17.20%	8.90%	1.77	0.29	9.20	43.00%	31.70%	5.17	1.42	8.30		502,624
Triston McKenzie	R	CLE	SEA		SEA	9,000	16.60			2.00	21.90%	17.80%	0.56	0.26	10.30	52.30%	45.50%	5.95	1.56	4.10		663,474
Jose Berrios	R	TOR	HOU		HOU	7,900				2.95	23.50%	6.70%	1.19	0.29	11.00	37.10%	35.80%	4.08	1.19	16.90		621,244
Justin Verlander	R	HOU	TOR		HOU	9,900				2.69	21.50%	6.70%	1.00	0.27	9.90	44.80%	40.80%	4.43	1.13	14.80		434,378
Luis Castillo	R	SEA	CLE		SEA	9,400				3.36	27.30%	7.00%	1.28	0.27	14.70	42.40%	41.80%	3.74	1.10	20.30		622,491
Randy Vasquez	R	SD	STL		SD	7,200				1.48	19.90%	10.80%	1.19	0.24	6.90	41.80%	37.80%	4.93	1.27	9.00		681,190
Yoshinobu Yamamoto			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Alex Wood	L	OAK	BOS	23.30	OAK	6,900				3.08	17.30%	9.80%	0.83	0.30	9.00	36.70%	37.40%	4.98	1.43	7.50		622,072
Nestor Cortes	L	NYY	ARI	19.50	ARI	6,600				5.05	25.20%	7.50%	1.56	0.29	10.40	57.10%	40.90%	4.35	1.25	17.70		641,482
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID

Corbin Burnes

As you can see in my Pitchers Chart below, Burnes boasts elite metrics by all means. He enters this game with a 2.25 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, and 35.4% strikeout rate through 25 starts. He’s been somewhat inconsistent in recent games, although he posted 49.4 and 49.6 DK points in 2 of his last 5 starts. Burnes gets an elite matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who own a .330 team wOBA and a 25.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He comes with more upside than any pitcher on this slate, and he’s a -291 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs. Burnes is locked and loaded as the SP1 on this slate.

#MLB Pitchers Chart (9/18)

* Corbin Burnes ????
* Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, & Charlie Morton = Tier 2 ????
* Nola & Carlos Carrasco = Positive regression ????
* Luis Gil & A.J. Alexy = Regression ????
* Best hitting spots: BOS, TOR, CHW, HOU ????#DFS #Betting #Gambling pic.twitter.com/2ZXBxZRcPZ

— Justin Bales (@BalesSJustin) September 18, 2021

Lance Lynn

Lynn’s thrown extremely well this season, making his DraftKings price tag a bit confusing. Through 25 starts, he boasts a 2.50 ERA with a 3.84 xFIP and a 28% strikeout rate. He’s been struggling a bit in recent starts, but he bounced back in his last game with 28.1 DK points against the Boston Red Sox. Lynn gets a great matchup against Texas Rangers tonight, and they’ve posted a .285 team wOBA with a 22.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Lynn’s currently a -218 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s an elite option on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Lance McCullers, Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Yu Darvish, Adam Wainwright

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Sal Perez

It was nearly impossible to decide who the best play at the top of catcher is, but I’m opting for the lower ownership. Yasmani Grandal is projecting to be the chalkier option, giving us leverage with Perez. He’s been on fire, hitting for a .268 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. Perez gets a solid matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s looked outstanding against left-handed pitching. Keep in mind, if ownership trends towards Perez later in the day, I’ll shift my focus to Grandal, who’s also been on fire.

1B

Jose Abreu

I’m going to continue to ride Abreu until his price shoots up over $5k. He’s seen mixed results over his last 10 games, posting a .235 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .774 OPS. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 8 RBIs in those games. Abreu gets a great matchup against Spencer Howard and AJ Alexy tonight, and he’ll have the edge against either of them. He’s hitting in the heart of the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s an outstanding option in all leagues.

2B

Jose Altuve

Altuve’s been one of the hotter hitters in the MLB in recent games, recording a .359 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.111 OPS over his last 10 contests. He’s posted 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over that span. Altuve gets an elite matchup against Humberto and Castellanos and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen tonight. He’s leading off for the Houston Astros, who will project as one of the best offenses on this slate. Altuve’s an elite option in all leagues, although he isn’t going to come cheap.

3B

Pablo Reyes

You’re going to have to save money somewhere, and Reyes is an interesting option. He’s seen limited at-bats over his last 10 games, but he does own a .333 average with a .600 slugging percentage and a 1.044 OPS over that span. Reyes gets an interesting matchup against Justin Steele, and he could draw the start against the southpaw. He’s tentatively projected to hit seventh. in the Milwaukee Brewers offense, and Reyes is a solid salary relief option on a slate where you could be spending up for both pitchers.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Nicky Lopez

Lopez continues to consistently be one of the best salary relief options on any given slate. He’s hitting for a .378 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .917 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he recorded 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Lopez gets an interesting matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s found success against left-handed pitching, so I’m not overly worried about the matchup. He’s expected to hit second in the Kansas City Royals lineup, and he’s a great option if you need to save salary here.

OF

Houston Astros

The Astros are such an important outfield on this slate because of their combination of elite and cheap options. If you can spend up on Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, they both can be used in all leagues. They’re two of the best plays on the entire slate. If you need to save a bit of salary, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are significantly cheaper, and they make great options in a matchup against Humberto Castellanos and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen.

Lorenzo Cain

Cain’s quietly been producing well for the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s hitting for a .294 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .826 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span, as well. Cain’s performed well against left-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Justin Steele tonight. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Milwaukee lineup, and he’s a solid salary relief option on this slate.

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani’s been ice cold in recent games, but how often are you going to get him this cheap? He’s only hitting for a .206 average with 1 home run, 1 RBI, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against Daulton Jefferies, and Ohtani comes with slate-breaking upside whenever he takes the field. He’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, and he’s simply too cheap for his talent.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID
BOS			Alex Wood			622,072
CLE			Luis Castillo			622,491
TOR			Justin Verlander			434,378
HOU			Jose Berrios			621,244
SEA			Triston McKenzie			663,474
SD
LAD
OAK			Chase Anderson			502,624
NYY
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD








Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%
Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%
Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a decent eight-game slate tonight. There are a few dominant options, and my five favorite stacks are outlined below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker/Correa

CHW – Anderson/Robert/Abreu/Grandal/Jimenez

MIL – Escobar/Yelich/Garcia/Urias/Cain

OAK – Harrison/Marte/Olson/Canha/Chapman

KC – Merrifield/Lopez/Perez/Benintendi/Mondesi

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez

CHW – Robert/Abreu/Grandal

OAK – Harrison/Marte/Canha

MIL – Garcia/Urias/Cain

KC – Merrifield/Lopez/Perez

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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