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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/24/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Jose Berrios

There are a few pitchers at the top that can be considered, but I’m dropping to Berrios in this article. He’s thrown well in 2021, recording a 3.45 ERA with a 3.68 xFIP and a 25.5% strikeout through 30 starts. Berrios gets a good matchup against his former team in the Minnesota Twins. They’ve posted a .324 team wOBA and a 24.4% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Most importantly, this game is expected to be played in roughly 55-degree weather. It’s a massive boost to the pitchers, and Berrios is a -142 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. He’s an outstanding option for his price tag.

Dylan Cease

Cease continues to be somewhat of a boom or bust option for the Chicago White Sox. As you can see on my Pitchers Chart, he owns a 4.09 ERA with a 3.81 xFIP and a 31.6% strikeout rate through 30 starts. He posted 30+ DK points in 3 of his last 9 starts, flashing tremendous upside. Cease also gets a great matchup against Cleveland, who’s recorded a .295 team wOBA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -113 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and Cease could be the top pitching option for his price tag.

Logan Gilbert

Gilbert is grossly mispriced on DraftKings tonight. Through 22 starts, he owns a 4.74 ERA with a 4.06 xFIP and a 26.3% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s posted 25.4 and 23.9 DK points in his last 2 starts. Gilbert gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who’ve been struggling with a .286 team wOBA and a 20.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -121 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and Gilbert is an elite SP2 option on DraftKings tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Frankie Montas, Gerrit Cole, Kyle Gibson, Carlos Hernandez, Tony Gonsolin, Eric Lauer

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

JT Realmuto

Realmuto’s caught fire over his last 10 games, posting a .400 average with a .675 slugging percentage and a 1.104 OPS. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases over that span. Realmuto gets a great matchup against Sam Howard, Miguel Yajure, and the rest of the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen tonight. He’s hitting in the heart of the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and he’s an elite option, along with Buster Posey and Will Smith tonight.

Pedro Severino 

Severino’s seen mixed results in recent games for the Baltimore Orioles. He’s hitting for a .270 average with 1 extra-base hit and 3 RBIs in those contests. He gets a great matchup against Spencer Howard and Drew Anderson tonight. Severino will also benefit from any innings against the Texas Rangers bullpen, as well. He’s expected to hit later in the Baltimore lineup, but he’s a solid salary relief option on this slate. Danny Jansen and Jose Trevino are two other solid salary relief options.

1B

CJ Cron

You can pay up at the top of first base, but Cron is one of several terrible misprices on this slate. He’s hitting for a .324 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .825 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs over that span. Cron’s a dominant option against left-handed pitching, especially in Coors, and he gets an interesting matchup against Alex Wood tonight. He’s averaging 10.4 DK points per game at home in 2021, and Cron should be used in all leagues. Paul Goldschmidt is an outstanding pivot directly off of him, as that game has winds blowing out at roughly 20 mph.

2B

Tommy La Stella

The majority of this game is underpriced tonight, and La Stella should be priced significantly over $4k in this matchup. He’s hitting for a .233 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .878 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs. La Stella gets a great matchup against Peter Lambert tonight, and he’s expected to lead off against a right-handed pitcher. He’s an elite option in all leagues. Similar to first base, you can get different by spending up here with Brandon Lowe potentially standing above the rest.

3B

Kris Bryant

Third base isn’t a position I like on this slate, but there is so much value that you can easily get to the top of it. Bryant’s hitting for a .289 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .900 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he possesses 6 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Bryant gets a great matchup against Peter Lambert, and he’s expected to hit fifth in the San Francisco Giants lineup. Justin Turner is another high-priced option that can be used in all leagues, although I prefer Bryant at the top of this position.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Trevor Story

Story is another terribly priced player on this slate. He owns a .250 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .818 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Story’s an elite option at home against left-handed pitching, and that’s the situation he finds himself in tonight. He’s an easy plug-and-play in the middle of the Colorado Rockies tonight.

Corey Seager 

Seager’s caught fire over his last 10 games, recording a .350 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .922 OPS. Over that span, he boasts 2 home runs and 7 RBIs for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Seager gets a great matchup against Humberto Castellanos and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen tonight. The Dodgers are quietly in an elite spot, and Seager should go a bit overlooked with Story such an obvious play.

OF

Coors Game

This should be extremely obvious. These are two of the top offenses on a per-dollar basis tonight, and they both have several options that can be considered. The most obvious option is Garrett Hampson, who’s priced under $3k but expected to lead off. Charlie Blackmon and Sam Hilliard can also be considered here. On the other side, Bryant, LaMonte Wade, and Mike Yastrzemski can be used.

Mookie Betts

Any of the Dodgers outfielders can be considered on this slate, although Betts is the top option. He’s hitting for a .295 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he posted 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Betts gets an elite matchup against Humberto Castellanos and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He’s an elite option, along with Bryce Harper, at the top of this position.

Cedric Mullins

Mullins is surprisingly cheap for how well he’s been playing, recording a .270 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 4 extra-base hits and 2 stolen bases over that span. Mullins has looked great against right-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Spencer Howard and Drew Anderson tonight. He’s leading off for the Baltimore Orioles, although Mullins is likely best suited for tournaments on this slate.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We’re back to a massive 15 game slate tonight, giving up several elite stacking options. Below are my five favorite stacks of the slate.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

SF – La Stella/Belt/Posey/Wade/Bryant

LAD – Betts/Seager/Turner/Muncy/Turner

COL – Hampson/Rodgers/Story/Blackmon/Cron

TB – Lowe/Franco/Cruz/Meadows/Arozarena

PHI – Herrera/Segura/Harper/Realmuto/McCutchen

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

SF – Belt/Wade/Bryant

LAD – Betts/Seager/Muncy

COL – Story/Blackmon/Cron

TB – Lowe/Cruz/Meadows

PHI – Segura/Harper/Realmuto

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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