MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/4/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/4/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Tyler Mahle

Mahle’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings tonight and for good reason. Through 27 starts, he owns a 3.64 ERA with a 3.73 xFIP and a 28.1% strikeout rate. He’s posted 20+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a pair of games with 30+ DK points. Mahle gets an interesting matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who own a .321 team wOBA and a 20.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Detroit isn’t a team that you can simply use the starting pitcher against anymore, but they also aren’t an offense that you need to avoid. Mahle’s a -185 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he’s one of the top pitching options on this slate.

Joe Musgrove

Musgrove continues to be underpriced for the San Diego Padres. As you can see on the MLB Pitchers Chart below, he’s posted a 2.85 ERA with a 3.45 xFIP and a 28.1% strikeout rate through 26 games (25 starts). Musgrove’s flashed tremendous upside, scoring 44.3 and 39.4 DK points in recent starts. He gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros, although they only own a .318 team wOBA and a 19.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Musgrove’s a -114 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s a bit too cheap on this slate.

Reynaldo Lopez

If you’re looking for a salary relief option at pitcher, Lopez makes an outstanding option. He’s recorded a 1.54 ERA with a 3.47 xFIP and a 29.8% strikeout rate through 14 games (4 starts). He posted 29.3 and 21.5 DK points in 2 of his last 3 starts. Lopez gets a matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who’ve posted a .299 team wOBA and a 20.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. The biggest concern in this game is Lopez’s pitch count, as he hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in a game. Still, he boasts plenty of upside, is extremely cheap, and is a -156 favorite in a game set at 10 runs. Lopez is a solid salary relief option on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Framber Valdez, Sammy Long, Jose Suarez

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Yasmani Grandal

If you can get to the top of this position, Grandal’s an elite option. Since returning from injury, he’s averaging 17.8 DK points per game over 6 contests. He gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch, and he owns a .487 wOBA and a .366 ISO against left-handed pitching. Grandal’s hitting fifth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, which is one of my favorite offenses on the slate. He’s a catcher that can be considered in all leagues.

Cal Raleigh

If you’re punting catcher, Raleigh can be considered. He’s been struggling, posting a .143 average with 2 extra-base hits and 1 RBI over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets a great matchup against Humberto Castellanos and a bad Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. Raleigh’s only expected to hit late in the Seattle Mariners lineup, but he’s an outstanding punt option on this slate.

1B

Freddie Freeman

Freeman hasn’t dominated in Coors the way many were expecting, but he’s still found some success. Overall, he’s hitting for a .220 average with a .341 slugging percentage and a .580 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 3 extra-base. hits(1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Freeman gets a tough matchup against German Marquez tonight, but he’s looked outstanding against right-handed pitching. Once again, he’s a hitter that will benefit from playing in Colorado, and Freeman can be considered in all leagues.

Jose Abreu

Abreu’s been playing at an elite level, posting a .359 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.098 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he boasts 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Abreu gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch, and he enters this game with a .390 wOBA and a .325 ISO against left-handed pitching. Abreu’s hitting in the heart of the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s an elite option on this slate. 

2B

Ozzie Albies

Albies is surprisingly cheap on this slate. He was recently injured, but he returned last night, hitting a home run in his first at-bat. He boasts an elite combination of speed and power, although he gets a tough matchup against German Marquez tonight. With that being said, he’s leading off for the Atlanta Braves, and he’ll benefit from playing in Coors tonight. Albies is a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.

David Fletcher

Fletcher’s been struggling in recent games, dropping his price tag drastically. Over his last 10 contests, he owns a .233 average with 1 extra-base hit, 3 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Fletcher gets a great matchup against Kolby Allard, and he boasts .123 wOBA and .071 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Angels, and he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.

3B

Kyle Seager

Seager continues to be somewhat of a boom or bust option for the Seattle Mariners. He’s only hitting for a .132 average over his last 10 games, but he’s posted 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 3 RBIs over that span. Seager gets a great matchup against Humberto Castellanos and a weak Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He’s hitting in the heart of Seattle’s lineup, and he is an outstanding option for his price tag.

Phil Gosselin

Gosselin’s another option at third base who is a bit too cheap. He’s hitting for a .256 average with 5 RBIs and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. Gosselin gets a great matchup against Kolby Allard, and he’s been a bit more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching in 2021. Gosselin continues to hit third in the Los Angeles Angels offense, and he can be considered in all leagues if you need to save salary here.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Willy Adames

Adames’ finally cooled off for the Milwaukee Brewers, lowering his price tag a bit too much. He’s only recorded a .182 average with a .242 slugging percentage and a .492 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted 2 extra-base hits and 1 RBI in those games. Adames gets a solid matchup against Kwang Hyun Kim tonight, though, and he’s flashed power against left-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting second in the Milwaukee offense, and he can be considered in all leagues.

Kyle Farmer

Farmer continues to see mixed results, posting a .194 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .620 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. Most importantly, Farmer gets a great matchup against Matt Boyd tonight. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he’s an outstanding salary relief option tonight.

OF

Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies

We’re back with the game in Coors once again, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. German Marquez and Ian Anderson are solid options on the mound, meaning this game isn’t in as good of a spot as some other nights, but everyone starting here can be considered. The top options are Jorge Soler, Charlie Blackmon, and Raimel Tapia. 

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are likely my favorite offense on this slate, and they feature several outfielders that can be considered tonight. The top options are Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez, although they aren’t going to come cheap. Andrew Vaughn is the next best option followed by Brian Goodwin and Leury Garcia. 

Nick Castellanos

Castellanos continues to find success, recording a .342 average with a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.059 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Castellanos is a dominant option against left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against Matt Boyd tonight. He’s hitting in the heart of the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.

Jo Adell

Adell’s finally playing well, posting a .270 average with 2 extra-base hits and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s a powerful option that gets a great matchup against Kolby Allard on this slate. Adell’s also expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, adding to his upside. He’s extremely cheap on this slate, and he’s been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have an eight game slate tonight with a few solid stacking options. Below are my five favorite stacks on this slate.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Robert/Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal/Vaughn

ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/d’Arnaud

CIN – India/Stephenson/Castellanos/Votto/Farmer

COL – Tapia/Rodgers/Blackmon/Story/Cron

SEA – Haniger/Seager/France/Toro/Marmolejos

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Robert/Abreu/Jimenez

ATL – Albies/Freeman/Riley

CIN – India/Stephenson/Castellanos

COL – Blackmon/Story/Cron

SEA – Haniger/Seager/France

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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