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Ronnie’s 3 Ups and 3 Downs

Welcome to Ronnie’s 3 Ups and 3 Downs! This column looks at some fascinating matchups and facts that might pique the interest of the reader as that day’s games are reviewed. This is my attempt at creating compelling thought on any given day.

 

Ups

 

Carlos Correa

 

Correa is having another fine season early on this year. He has a 137 wRC+ and is hitting at a career his .271 ISO. His .370 wOBA so far this season is the second best for his career.Today’s matchup pits Correa against Corey Kluber. The Cleveland hurler is a heavy sinker pitcher using the fastball variation 31.1% of the time, more than any of his other pitches. Correa is one of the best hitters in the AL against the sinker with a 3.0 wSI. He also has a strong 2.3 wSL, noteworthy since Kluber throws a slider 23.9% of the time.  

 

Matt Chapman

 

Chapman was my preseason pick for AL MVP and he’s delivering a fine start to the season. He’s hitting .311/.407/.633, all career bests, and he’s on pace for 59,3 wRAA this year. Chapman will step in against Toronto’s Marcus Stroman in today’s matchup. The Blue Jay pitcher throws a sinker 34.6% of the time. Chapman, like Correa does well against both the sinker and the slider with a 2.4 wSI and a 1.3 wSL. Stroman’s most used pitch is his slider at 37.3%.

 

James Paxton

 

Paxton is a killer on the mound, he’s striking hitters out at a rate of 13.3/9. Thanks to that high K rate he has an excellent 2.76 SIERA. Usually a high GB pitcher, he’s actually allowing more FB (43.1%) than GB (35.4%). That hasn’t been a problem for Paxton, he’s inducing a career high 14.3% IFFB with just a 10.7% HR/FB. Paxton is an extremely fastball heavy hurler. He uses his fourseam at a 58.4% rate and his second most used pitch is his cutter at 18.7%. The Giants have just a 0.5 wFC and are the third worst fastball hitting team with a very low -10.4 wFC.

 

Downs

 

Jesse Winker

 

Winker came into this season with a lot of hype. After back-to-back 125+ wRC+ seasons, Winker was looking to put up some big numbers in 2019. So far he’s struggled to a .205/.275/.452 slash with a 7.5% walk rate that’s more than 5% below his career average of 12.7% Just the opposite of Correa and Chapman, Winker is terrible against the sinker. He’s the 4th worst in the Majors with a -2.6 wSI. His opponent today, Miles Mikolas, ranks 9th in the NL with a 29.9% wSI.

 

Leonys Martin

 

With a career high 115 wRC+, Martin is arguably starting the best season of his career. He is walking at a 9.9% clip which would also be a career high and is hitting a career high .186 ISO. This may not be the best day to play him however. Martin is terrible against the slider, he’s 5th worst in the AL with a -2.6 wSL. He hits today against the Houston Astros Collin McHugh who happens to own the AL’s most used slider at 44.8%.

 

Madison Bumgarner

 

Bumgarner is pitching well this year, not great but well. He has a 23.8% K and just a 4.0% BB. He has a 3.77 SIERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Bumgarner’s two most used pitches are his fourseam (35.4%) and his cutter (36.5%). The Yankees, his opponent for today, rank 2nd in the Majors with a 3.6 wFC and 4th with a 15.9 wFA.

 

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