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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/10

 4 Game Slate GPP Strategy

 

Happy Thursday Karma Nation! We have four games on tap for tonight’s NBA DFS slate. These smaller slates aren’t viable for cash games, but they are perfect for testing out different tournament (GPP) strategies. I had some time free up over lunch, so I thought I’d spend that time going over one of my favorite strategies for slates like this one. This might be obvious, but my favorite strategy is to fully game stack on these smaller slates.

PS -> Find my big Monkey Knife Fight prop play at the bottom!

 

What’s my process for figuring out which game to attack? Let’s first look at the slate->

 

Celtics AT Heat +2, 212 -> Defensively sound teams & they play at a slower pace. -> Most likely lower owned.

Clippers AT Nuggets -5.5, 225.5 -> LAC poor def & fast paced, DEN good def & slow pace. -> DEN might be popular.

Thunder AT Spurs +1.5, 224 -> OKC fast paced/solid def & Spurs solid at home -> Russ (stud) will be popular.

Pistons AT Kings -5, 224.5 -> Two fast paced teams, best pace spot, poor defensively -> Should be a popular spot.

 

Misconception to get out of your head->To win a tournament you have to play the lowest owned spots”. This would mean we would have to stack up the Celtics vs Heat game. Sure, if you have the bankroll that allows you to max enter or take shots like that, then go for it. However, I’d much rather spend my time on figuring out how to best stack the game that will most likely generate the highest possible fantasy point total. The other thing I do on small slates is just go with my gut. Here’s what the ol’ AP gut is saying->

 

Celtic/Heat-> limit exposure, one value to mid-range play might be fine

Clippers/Nuggets-> “elite on paper” but this feels like the trap spot to attack. DEN has been elite at home and I could see many scenarios where they run away with this one early.

Thunder/Spurs-> Russ, w/ his elite floor, will always garner ownership on a short slate. Russ’s last four visit to San Antonio have looked like this (DK points); 46, 38, 57, & 37. My gut says he underwhelms in San Antonio tonight.

Pistons/Kings-> The DFS goldmine game of the night (in my opinion). This is the game I’m stacking up.

 

The Stack (DraftKings)

 

Point Guard – De’Aaron Fox, 7,600

Opposing point guards average 9% more fantasy points relative to their season average when facing the Pistons. On the road, this number is even better for opposing guards. Since December-> Eric Bledsoe (47pts), Kemba Walker (59pts), Derrick Rose (48pts), Darren Collison (38pts), & DJ Augustin (45pts). Fox has a high ceiling but also has a low floor, I’m hoping this keeps his ownership down a bit.

 

Shooting Guard – Buddy Hield, 6,700

I’m avoiding the Kings frontcourt because Griffin has a habit of getting opposing bigs (whoever is guarding him) into foul trouble. My plan is to stack up the King’s backcourt to take advantage of their weak perimeter defense. I think this bodes well for Hield. Hield is raw scoring dependent which makes him risky, but I love this matchup.

 

Center – Andre Drummond, 9,100

Opposing Centers have absolutely torched the Kings this year. Jusuf Nurkic put up 88, Steven Adams 52, and DeAndre Jordan 49. Drummond is trending in the right direction and this is a prime spot for him to put up a 20/20 type of game.

 

Guard – Reggie Jackson, 5,000

The Kings give up an insane 18% more fantasy points relative to their season average to opposing point guards. Reggie Jackson rarely sees big minutes which I hope keeps his ownership somewhat low. However, I’m betting that Reggie comes out hot and his scoring will be needed in this game tonight.

 

Final Thoughts-> This core leaves you with 5,400 left per position. This core doesn’t appear to be “contrarian” on the surface. However, it wouldn’t really be possible to fit Russ, Paul George, or Nikola Jokic into this lineup. Those are three studs that will for sure carry some ownership on this short slate. In sum, the roster construction route I am taking tonight is what will give me a little bit of leverage on this field.

 

Here is my Monkey Knife Fight play which correlates positively with my game stack above. Sign up to play at www.monkeyknifefight.com and use the promo code “KARMA” to get 100% match on your first deposit.

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