AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/21 - DFS Karma
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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/21

AP CORE Discussion


Point Guard, Lance Stephenson – The Lakers are dealing with many key injuries; Lonzo Ball, LeBron James, and Rajon Rondo are all out. Lance is active on the court and often acts as a spark for this Lakers team. He’s 4,000 on Draftkings, which gives us some nice salary relief. He also gives us exposure to the game with the highest total on this small slate.


Shooting Guard, James Harden – Harden has 7 straight games of hitting 70 or more DraftKings points. He is doing everything for this team and on a four-game slate I just don’t think it is smart to fade him in any format.


Small Forward, VALUE-> My advice is to pay down at the Small Forward position on DraftKings. Here are a few options I’m looking at tonight; Marcus Morris (He’s only 4,800 and has fared well in this matchup), Gerald Green (4,400 & He has taken double digit 3pt attempts in three straight games), Jae crowder (GPP), Royce O’Neale (only if Rubio is out and he is starting), Evan Turner or Maurice Harkless.


Power Forward, Kenneth Faried – Faried literally signed with the Rockets today and it has been announced he could see big minutes to match up with the 76ers size. Faried is just 3,000 on DraftKings and is in play in all formats. Think of him as a free square in your builds tonight that will allow you to pay up for multiple studs.


Center, DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins – On larger slates, I typically avoid the Warriors as they just have too many mouths to feed. In this scenario, it really comes down to the situation and price. Boogie put up over 30 DraftKings points in 15 minutes in his debut against the Clippers. Kerr stated that he would like to get Boogie over 20 minutes tonight. With Boogie getting acclimated to his new team, I expect he’ll continue to get fed opportunities on the offensive end of the court. On defense, a matchup against a Lakers team with limited ball handlers should present increased opportunities for steals and blocks.


Guard & Forward, VALUE – I think you can stay in the 4k to 5k range with these two positions. If Jimmy Butler gets ruled out, we can assume Furkan Korkmaz would enter the starting lineup. He’s 3,000 on DraftKings and would be an excellent punt value play if you want another mid-range play in your lineup. (NOTE) – With these games staggered a bit (6pm, 8pm, 9pm, 1030pm), I’d prefer to fill these spots with value plays that start in the 8pm game and beyond. This will give you some flexibility to adjust your lineup if one of these questionable players gets ruled out.


UTL – Joel Embiid – Embiid is questionable, so make sure you keep an eye on his status. If he ends up getting ruled out, we can easily make some proper adjustments. Assuming Embiid plays, he is only 10,100 on DraftKings and he should thrive in a matchup against an undersized Rockets team.


Final thoughts – This initial core leaves you with 4,667 left per position. With multiple key players tagged as questionable tonight, make sure to prioritize your value plays to players in the later games. This will give you flexibility if injury news drops after the first game locks.


CORE SUMMARY -> This is the core I’m rolling out in the $777 on DraftKings tonight. Hopefully we can all have some big screenshots to share later this evening. 

PG- Lance Stephenson, PG/SG, 4,000

SG- James Harden, PG/SG, 13,200

SF – Open

PF- Kenneth Faried, PF, 3,000

C- DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, 5,700

G- Open

F- Open

UTL- Joel Embiid, C, 10,100

$4,667 left per position

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