AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/22 » DFS Karma
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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/22

AP CORE Discussions

 

POINT GUARD – Derrick Rose, PG/SG, 6,300 (Core Lock) – Tyus Jones is out for another 4-5 games and Jeff Teague was downgraded to questionable. I’ll be playing Rose whether Teague plays or not. If Teague ends up sitting, I’ll be locking Rose into every lineup I make. He gives us a safe floor and has a ceiling that justifies a much higher price tag given the situation.

 

PG PIVOT – Kyle Lowry, PG, 7,600 (CASH/GPP) – Leonard and OG Anunoby are OUT tonight. The question I immediately asked myself, ‘why would I have Lowry ranked just behind Rose?’. Lowry’s numbers across the board go up significantly with Leonard off the court. He also finds himself in an elite pace up spot. For me, this really comes down to price. I think Rose can match the number Lowry puts up tonight, so the salary savings is why I have Rose ranked higher.

 

SHOOTING GUARD – Devin Booker, PG/SG, 8,300 (GPP Core Lock) – Dev didn’t have his best stuff going against the Wolves on Sunday; I hope this keeps his ownership down just a bit. With that said, he is in a great spot and I could very easily see him putting up 40+ real points tonight.

 

SMALL FORWARD – TJ Warren, SF/PF, 5,700 (CASH Core) – This Suns/Wolves game is about as elite as it can get. TJ Warren is way underpriced given the fact that he is in line for 35+ minutes tonight. TJW played just under 38minutes a few days ago when these teams faced off in Minnesota.

 

SF GPP PIVOT – Kelly Oubre Jr, SG/SF, 5,600 (GPP) – I’m giving Oubre a GPP tag due to him coming off the bench. I have him projected to log around 7 to 10 minutes less than TJ Warren. Oubre is scoring dependent but he should thrive in this matchup.

 

POWER FORWARD – Dragan Bender, PF/C, 4,000 (Core Lock) – Deandre Ayton was just ruled out and Richaun Holmes is doubtful (I’m going to assume he doesn’t play). Bender should be in line for another 29+ minutes and at 4,000 he is one of the best salary relief plays on this slate.

 

CENTER – Karl-Anthony Towns, C, 10,600 (Core Lock) – The Wolves have been horrible on the road and I just can’t see the Suns blowing any team out. Just two days ago, Towns put up 61 DK points in 39 minutes of play. With Teague also questionable, Towns and Rose are in positions to put up slate breaking type of numbers tonight.

 

C PIVOT – DeAndre Jordan, C, 6,400 (GPP Double C build) – Just for full disclosure, I’m locking Towns in tonight. He will find himself in every build I make. Jordan smashed in this revenge spot against his former team a few weeks ago. My only knock for Deandre is that he typically plays around 30 minutes a night.

 

PF/C PIVOT – Serge Ibaka, PF/C, 5,900 (GPP) – You can make a case for either Serge Ibaka or Pascal Siakam. Siakam has slightly more minutes upside but I really like Ibaka from a matchup perspective. In m build where I go Booker over Lowry, I’ll most likely lock in Siakam or Ibaka to get some exposure to this elite matchup.

 

[Roster Construction Note] – Given the dynamics of this slate, it’s quite possible that Paul George and Russell Westbrook go under owned. Let me explain why:

  1. If Teague is out, Rose will become a must owned play.
  2. Given the matchup and recency bias, I expect Towns will be extremely chalky (rightfully so)
  3. With Leonard OUT and a matchup against the Kings, Lowry will also be popular.
  4. OR, I can see many taking the route I went, and locking in Dev to stack up this late game.

With either route, the salary left over doesn’t allow someone to fit in Westbrook or Paul George unless some 3k punt value opens up (You can definitely make a case for Acy). The case for Westbrook and Paul George is that they are ELITE plays on a nightly basis, and you could get them at moderately low ownership (Due note, I could be way off on this). The case against them lies in their matchup against the Blazers, who play at a slower pace and tend to limit peripheral stats due to their excellent defense.

 

Initial build structure

PG- Devin Booker / Kyle Lowry

SG- Derrick Rose

SF- TJ Warren / Kelly Oubre (GPP)

PF- Dragan Bender

C- Karl-Anthony Towns

G- Open

F- Open

UTL- Open

This Core leaves you with 5,000 to 5,300 left in salary per position

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