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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 3/12

Happy Tuesday Karma Nation!



POINT GUARD – Damian Lillard, PG, 9,200 -> We have limited elite options to pick from tonight. I’m hoping ‘Pat Beverley defense’ is a narrative that will keep Lillards ownership at bay. Dame is matchup proof and is someone I love targeting in tough matchups. The last time these teams met, both Bev and Dame smashed value. I expect a similar outcome tonight.

POINT GUARD ‘SAFE/VALUE’ – Ryan Arcidiacono, PG/SG, 3,300 -> *TYUS if Teague is OUT*


SHOOTING GUARD – Kris Dunn, PG/SG, 5,200 -> When Zach LaVine is playing, he is the primary ball handler with Dunn assuming more of a shooting guard role. With LaVine OUT tonight, Dunn should see an uptick in raw scoring opportunities. He gets an elite matchup against Rondo and a Lakers team that has pretty much given up. I think the Bulls get the W tonight and we see multiple Bulls players hit value.

SHOOTING GUARD ‘PIVOT’ – Pat Beverley, PG/SG, 5,500


SMALL FORWARD – Otto Porter, SF/PF, 6,400 -> The sample size is small (78 minutes) but given the injury situation, Porter owns a 27% usage and 1.10 fantasy point per minute average. Assuming this game stays close, he could see 36 minutes which would give him a solid shot at hitting 40+ points tonight. On a slate filled with landmines, this is a spot I’m most likely going to just lock in.

SMALL FORWARD ‘SAFE/VALUE’ – Al-Farouq Aminu, SF/PF, 4,300


POWER FORWARD – LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, 8,900 -> Let me first disclose, I never feel great about rostering a Spurs player on the road. The Spurs are currently in the 7th seed in the West and should be motivated to win on a nightly basis. LMA has been locked into massive minutes lately and has one of the best matchups on the slate. His significant price increase should keep ownership down a bit as well. Aldridge is one of my favorite GPP plays on this slate.

POWER FORWARD ‘PIVOT’ – Julius Randle, PF/C, 8,700 -> PF/C’s have absolutely torched the Bucks when they are playing on the road.


CENTER – Ante Zizic, C, 3,700 – Zizic feels like a free square tonight due to his price and expected big minutes he should get with the Cavs being so thin in the front court. Not much else really needs to be said, he should see between 30-33 minutes tonight.

CENTER ‘PIVOT’ – Jusuf NurkShow, C, 7,100 -> *I feel like Nurk puts on a show tonight and breaks this slate*


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