Bales' Bananas - Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 1/4/19 » DFS Karma
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Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 1/4/19

Scoring Champ – Los Angeles Clippers/Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker has been an elite scorer in the NBA since returning from injury. In 10 games back, he’s averaging 29.3 points per game, while scoring 20+ points in every game. He has also scored 30+ points in four of those 10 games. The Los Angeles Clippers have been roughly an average team in terms of points allowed (22.6) per game to shooting guards over the last 15 games. There’s also no reason to believe they’ll be able to slow down one of the NBA premier scorers. With that being said, they’ll need to find scoring of their own, and it will likely come from Lou Williams, who owns far and away the highest usage rating (31.9%) on the team. Over the last 10 days, Williams is averaging 0.9 points per minute, and he has played 27+ minutes in each of his last three games. He’s expected to play similarly minutes again tonight, and he’ll likely be locked into 20+ points with the potential for significantly more in this matchup. Deandre Ayton recently hit a rookie wall, but he seems to be over that now. He’s averaging 20.0 points in 34.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s also averaging 21.4 points per game over his last 10 games, struggling only against the Orlando Magic. Furthermore, Los Angeles is allowing the second most points (26.9) per game to centers this season, and Ayton is a third player in this trio that has the potential to score 30+ points on any given night.

Play $50 on Devin Booker, Lou Williams, and Deandre Ayton OVER 75.5 points to win $100 (2x)

 

Glass Cleaner – Atlanta Hawks/Milwaukee Bucks

This is an extremely interesting play. The Milwaukee Bucks have been an elite rebounding team against centers, but they have struggled against power forwards. With that being said, there should be too many opportunities from the pace of this game to ignore the potential rebounds. John Collins has quietly been a dominant rebounder, averaging 11.4 rebounds per game over the last 10 days. He has also grabbed double-digit rebounds in eight of his last 10 games, including three games with 15+ rebounds. Dewayne Dedmon has also found plenty of success in bigger minutes recently, averaging 12.3 rebounds per game over the last 10 days, although his games are limited because of an injury. Regardless, he’s averaging 9.5 rebounds per game over his last 10 games, and he also comes with the potential for 15 rebounds in a game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the final part of this stack, and his rebounding potential has been clear all season, as he’s averaging 12.6 rebounds per game through 34 games. He has posted double-digit rebounds in four of his last five games, and he’s averaging 11.8 rebounds per game over that span. This total is simply too low for two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, who feature multiple players with the potential for 15+ rebounds on any given night.

Play $50 on John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 34.5 rebounds to win $100 (2x)

 

Over Under 2/2 – Orlando Magic/Minnesota Wolves

Karl-Anthony Towns feels like one of the biggest locks on the slate. Robert Covington has been ruled out tonight, while Derrick Rose is doubtful and Jeff Teague is questionable. If Teague is able to return, he’ll be on a minute’s restriction, leaving Towns to take over the offense once again. He has scored 28+ points in each of his last four games, and his usage rating is expected to increase over 30% tonight. The Orlando Magic have surprisingly limited centers points, but I’m simply siding with the usage and skillset of Towns, who is a matchup nightmare for most centers in the NBA. Aaron Gordon is an interesting player. He’s only averaging 15.4 points per game on the season, and that has dropped to 14.8 points per game over the last 10 days. Furthermore, he’s averaging only 13.0 points per game over his last 10 games, while failing to score 17+ points in eight of those games. The Minnesota Wolves have only been an average defense against the power forward this season, but Gordon simply hasn’t been able to find his groove recently. With Towns feeling like a lock, we only need to predict Gordon’s points for 2.48x our money, and I’m expecting him to struggle in this matchup away from home.

Play $50 on Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 23.5 points and Aaron Gordon UNDER 16.5 points to win $124 (2.48x)

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