Over Under 2/2 – Memphis Grizzlies/Sacramento Kings
This particular play makes me uncomfortable because of the style of play the Memphis Grizzlies bring on a nightly basis, but I still feel there’s value in it. Buddy Hield has taken 20+ shot attempts in three of his last four games, and he has scored 20+ points in eight of his last nine games. Furthermore, he’s averaging 19.5 points per game against Memphis in two matchups this season. Hield is a streaky player, and he’s averaging 26.6 points per game over his last five games, making him a strong bet to score over 18.5 points, even in a tough matchup tonight. Marc Gasol gets a plus matchup, as the Sacramento Kings are always looking to push the pace. With that being said, Gasol hasn’t been looking to score the ball recently. He has failed to scored 18+ points in any of his last 10 games, and he’s averaging only 12.7 points per game over the last 10 days. Furthermore, he has been a slightly worse scorer on the road, and he’s averaging only 14.5 points per game against Sacramento this season.
Play $50 on Buddy Hield OVER 18.5 points and Marc Gasol UNDER 17.5 points to win $117.50 (2.35x)
Scoring Champ – Milwaukee Bucks/Boston Celtics
This total seems a bit low, assuming Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo show off their star power tonight. Jayson Tatum is a consistent source of scoring, as he has scored between 17 and 22 points in eight of his last 10 games. Even at only 17 points, that leaves Irving and Antetokounmpo to total slightly more than 50 points. Antetokounmpo has caught fire recently, scoring 25, 32, and 44 points in his last three games. He’ll continue to be the focal point of the team, and could once again have an advantage in the paint with Boston missing a pair of their big men. Antetokounmpo scored 33 points in his first matchup against Boston, and he could do that once again tonight. Irving has taken on a new role for the Celtics, and he’s averaging 29.3 points per game over the last 10 days. He has also been a slightly better option at home this season, and he was able to score 28 points against Milwaukee earlier in 2018. This could quickly become a shootout between two of the biggest stars in the NBA, and Tatum’s consistency only adds value to this play.
Play $50 on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyrie Irving, and Jayson Tatum OVER 69.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 5/5 – Detroit Pistons/Charlotte Hornets
While using averages isn’t always ideal, I feel they tell a real story in how most of the numbers here are off. Kemba Walker has been an elite player at home, where he’s averaging 25.2 points per game. He has been a bit boom or bust recently, but the Detroit Pistons have struggled against point guards, and Walker is averaging 27.5 points per game against them this season. Detroit has needed to rely more heavily on Blake Griffin on the road, as his points per game spike to 27.6 points away from home. He has also been on fire recently, scoring 25+ points in six of his last seven games. Andre Drummond’s number is a bit more difficult to predict, as his rebounding numbers have dropped on the road, and he has been inconsistent as of recently. With that being said, the Charlotte Hornets simply don’t have anyone that can stop him in the paint, and he’s averaging 17.5 rebounds per game against them this season. Reggie Bullock has been locked into big minutes for Detroit, and that will be the case again tonight. He has made seven, five, and four three pointers in his last three games, and he looks to have finally caught fire. I’ll be riding the hot hand of the player that has been attempts seven or more three pointers on a consistent basis recently. While I know Nicolas Batum has the potential for five or more assists, I’m simply playing the numbers here. He has recorded five or more assists in only three of his last 10 games, and he’s averaging only 3.4 assists per game on the season. He is also averaging only 3.0 assists per game against Charlotte, making the under much more likely than the over in this situation.
Play $50 on Kemba Walker OVER 21.5 points, Blake Griffin OVER 20.5 points, Andre Drummond OVER 15.5 rebounds, Reggie Bullock OVER 2.5 three pointers made, and Nicolas Batum UNDER 4.5 assists to win $550.00 (11x)