Over Under 2/2 – Atlanta Hawks/Minnesota Wolves
Derrick Rose feels like the lock of all locks at only 18.5 points tonight. He’s starting for Jeff Teague, and he has found plenty of success when healthy. In his last five games with 30+ minutes, he’s averaging 24.2 points per game. He’ll also see an uptick in pace in this game, and the Atlanta Hawks are allowing the second most points (25.2) per game to opposing point guards. Rose is a scorer, who has the potential to score 30+ points in this matchup. I was a bit more hesitant on Kent Bazemore because of his inconsistencies, but it’s difficult to ignore this matchup. The Minnesota Wolves rank in the bottom-five of the NBA in points (24.0) allowed per game to shooting guards. Bazemore took 25 shot attempts in his last game, and while that is seemingly an outlier, he is a player that tends to catch hot and cold streaks. Similarly to the play below, I feel one of these two plays are a lock, and getting 2.19x return on the over/under of essentially one player is value in itself.
Play $50 on Derrick Rose OVER 18.5 points and Kent Bazemore OVER 14.5 points to win $109.50 (2.19x)
Scoring Champ – Dallas Mavericks/New Orleans Pelicans
I generally like at least one “Scoring Champ” in my articles because I truly believe in the process for it. The scoring in this game with be extremely concentrated, as each team has clear focal points of the offense. Anthony Davis has taken 20+ shot attempts in seven of his last 10 games, and he scored 32 against the Dallas Mavericks in his last game. Overall, he’s averaging 28.8 points per game over the last 10 days. Jrue Holiday hasn’t seen quite the offensive workload of Davis, but he’s averaging 17.4 shot attempts per game over his last 10 games. He’s also averaging 21.8 points per game over that span. Similarly to Davis, he found success against Dallas, scoring 25 points in their last game. Luka Doncic’s role in the offense hasn’t been as consistent as the duo above, but he’s still averaging 23.6 points per game over the last 10 days, and he scored 21 points in his last game against the New Orleans Pelicans. In that game, he shot only 5-13 from the field, including 0-5 from the three-point line, suggesting he comes with even more upside. This point total is simply too low for the scoring abilities of these three players.
Play $50 on Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, and Luka Doncic OVER 72.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Clippers/Los Angeles Lakers
This total simply hasn’t adjusted for Kyle Kuzma, so we’re essentially getting 2.31x our money on Tobias Harris’ prop. Kuzma was the clear-cut winner of the LeBron James injury, attempting 24 shots and nine free throws in 40 minutes last night. Assuming this game stays relatively close, Kuzma will see minutes in the high-30s or low-40s once again, and his shot attempts should be similar. In that game, he scored 33 points, and there’s simply no reason to believe he won’t be able to score 19+ points with similar usage tonight. I somewhat went back and forth on Harris’ prop, but ultimately decided on the over. He has dominant scoring potential, and he has scored 21+ points in five of his last nine games. This will be a fast paced game that is expected to score a plethora of points, and Harris will be a major part of that. He’s averaging 25.0 points per game over the last 10 days, and this is the perfect type of matchup for him to find success.
Play $50 on Tobias Harris OVER 20.5 points and Kyle Kuzma OVER 18.5 points to win $115.50 (2.31x)