Over Under 2/2 – Portland Blazers/Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic only played 27 minutes in his last game, as he was dealing with an injury. He isn’t on the injury report today, though, and he should see 30+ minutes once again. He has found plenty of scoring success recently, posting 20+ points in four of his last six games. He’s the focal point of a rebuilding offense, and should continue to see shots in the high-teens or low-20s. He’s averaging a healthy 22 points per game against the Portland Blazers this season, as well. Furthermore, Doncic has been a better scorer in Dallas, and he should find plenty of success in a plus matchup today. Rodney Hood played 25 minutes in his first game with Portland, and that will likely be his role moving forward. He isn’t attempting a ton of three-point shots, as he saw only three attempts in that game, and he has three or fewer attempts in seven of his last 10 games. Hood gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank fifth last in the NBA against shooting guards in three-pointers made this season. They are also an average defense in that category against small forward. Hood will need an extremely efficient day to hit the over, and that simply isn’t the most likely scenario in this matchup.
Play $50 on Luka Doncic OVER 19.5 points and Rodney Hood UNDER 1.5 three-pointers made to win $118 (2.36x)
Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Lakers/Philadelphia 76ers
I may be over-simplifying this play, but Jimmy Butler looked more or less like a lock for the under in this game. Sure, he’ll see a plus matchup against a fast paced Los Angeles Lakers team, but there are too many mouths to feed in Philadelphia at the moment. Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, J.J. Redick, and Joel Embiid will all demand shots, along with Butler. In their first game together, Butler saw only nine shot attempts, although he went 14/14 from the free throw line. He’s unlikely to reach the line that much, and he isn’t going to command the ball like Embiid. Butler scored 20 points in his only matchup against Los Angeles this season, but he shot 77.8% from the field, which is significantly higher than his 47.6% average on the season. Brandon Ingram has been one of the primary ball-handlers for the Laker, although he may be behind Rajon Rondo and LeBron James at this point. With that being said, he owns 3+ assists in nine of his last 11 games. He played 40 minutes in his last game, and he posted five assists in his only matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers this season. Ingram has too large of a part in this offense to not see 3+ assists in big minutes, especially when passing to a player like LeBron James.
Play $50 on Jimmy Butler UNDER 20.5 points and Brandon Ingram OVER 2.5 assists to win $125 (2.5x)
Over Under 2/2 – Phoenix Suns/Sacramento Kings
Harrison Barnes is clearly going to be locked into a major role for the Sacramento Kings, as he played 37 minutes in his first game with his new team. With that being said, they don’t need him to be a large part of their offense. In that game, he took nine shots from the field, scoring only 12 points. Barnes has struggled with efficiency this season, and this prop is set at his recent role in the Dallas Mavericks offense. With De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Marvin Bagley all demanding the ball, Barnes will need an ultra-efficient game to hit the over at his current total. He has also scored fewer than 19 points in six of his last nine games. I’m not necessarily in love with making a play on steals and blocks, but I simply can’t avoid Barnes props. Deandre Ayton has been a relatively consistent option in terms of blocks and steals, as he has posted two blocks and steals in 10 of his last 13 games. The Sacramento Kings have struggled against centers throughout the season, and Ayton will be locked into big minutes. He’ll also see plenty of opportunities, as Sacramento loves pushing the pace in games. I’m simply siding with the numbers here, although I do believe Ayton comes with some risk here.
Play $50 on Harrison Barnes UNDER 18.5 points and Deandre Ayton OVER 1.5 steals and blocks to win $115.50 (2.31x)
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