Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 2/11/19
Over Under 2/2 – Dallas Mavericks/Houston Rockets
Jalen Brunson hasn’t seen a significant change in his role after the trade of Dennis Smith Jr., but he is seeing consistent minutes now. He has played 24 minutes in each of his last two games, and that’s his floor in this game. He has recorded 3+ minutes in each of his last nine games with 10+ minutes. While he isn’t necessarily a true point guard with Luka Doncic on the floor, Brunson should have no problems hitting the over in his projected minutes tonight. Chris Paul is the riskier option in this play. He has played 29+ minutes in each of his last four games, scoring 18+ points in three of those games. He’s only averaging 12.0 shot attempts per game over that span, but he’s also averaging 6.0 three-point attempts per game over that span. Furthermore, he’s averaging 5.3 free throw attempts per game in those contests. Paul is generally an efficient shooter, and the Dallas Mavericks simply don’t have anyone that can slow him down, especially while focusing more on James Harden. In their only matchup this season, Paul scored 23 points against Dallas, and he comes with similar upside tonight.
Play $50 on Chris Paul OVER 16.5 points and Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 assists to win $118 (2.36x)
Over Under 2/2 – Charlotte Hornets/Indiana Pacers
Myles Turner only played 22 minutes in his last game, but he was injured. He’s expected to play significantly larger minutes tonight, and he could potentially push for 30+ minutes. His point total is set a bit low at the moment, as he has scored 14+ points in seven of his last nine games, even while seeing limited minutes in some games. He gets a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, who are dealing with injuries in their frontcourt, and they don’t have anyone that is going to be able to slow down Turner. While he isn’t an elite scorer, he comes with tremendous upside, and should have no problems exceeding 14 points once again tonight. Nicolas Batum has recorded five and eight assists in his last two games, but this assists total is far too high. Prior to those two games, he had posted less than five assists in eight consecutive games. He’s also averaging only 2.4 assists per game in those contests. The Indiana Pacers are a team that is going to slow this pace down, although they will be playing with Victor Oladipo, who is their best defensive option. Batum is averaging only 44 touches per game this season, which is less than players like DeAndre Jordan and Pascal Siakam. For what it’s worth, Nikola Jokic and Blake Griffin lead the slate with 94 touches per game, showing just how little assist value Batum truly comes with.
Play $50 on Myles Turner OVER 13.5 points and Nicolas Batum UNDER 4.5 assists to win $120 (2.4x)
Over Under 2/2 – Portland Blazers/Oklahoma City Thunder
These may be high hopes, but I’m treating Paul George as a lock in this play. While his prop is set high, he’s averaging 38.2 points per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 28+ points in nine of his last 11 games, as well. Over that span, he’s averaging 35.0 points on 21.5 shot attempts, 11.4 three-point attempts, and 10.3 free throw attempts per game. The Portland Blazers have had no answer for him defensively this season, as he’s averaging 36.5 points per game in two matchups against them. I expect that to be the case once again tonight. Jusuf Nurkic is the significantly more difficult option here. He has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but he has recorded 3+ steals and blocks in seven of his last 12 games. He comes with steal potential, but his blocks have been significantly more impressive, as he recently posted six blocks in 32 minutes against the Utah Jazz. Nurkic is also averaging 3.5 blocks and steals per game against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season. While I’m not overly confident in projecting steals and blocks, this play is worth more than 2.5x. Since I’m viewing George as a [near] lock, this is predicting only one play for elite odds, making it extremely difficult to avoid.
Play $50 on Paul George OVER 27.5 points and Jusuf Nurkic OVER 2.5 steals and blocks to win $127.50 (2.55x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.