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Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 2/12/19

Over Under 2/2 – Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers

Jimmy Butler is in an interesting position. His current point totals are set a bit high because of his success this season rather than his new role in the offense. Joel Embiid will continue to be the focal point of the offense, while Tobias Harris and JJ Redick are more or less the catch and shoot options. Ben Simmons will continue to see somewhat of a limited shooting role, although he should see 10-15 shots per game. That leaves Jimmy Butler in an odd spot. This offense simply doesn’t cater to his isolation or pick and roll style. While Butler does come with some scoring potential on a nightly basis, he simply isn’t likely to see the volume needed to find success in this prop. Terry Rozier will draw the start and play 30+ minutes with Kyrie Irving out tonight. Rozier isn’t necessarily an elite passer, but he has posted 4+ assists in nine of his last 10 games with 25+ minutes. He’s also averaging 4.9 assists on a per-36 minute basis this season. Rozier is a near lock for 4+ assists, leaving this play to rely heavily on Butler for slightly above 2.5x.

Play $50 on Jimmy Butler UNDER 18.5 points and Terry Rozier OVER 3.5 assists to win $126.50 (2.53x)

 

Over Under 2/2 – San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies

Joakim Noah will be forced into minutes with Marc Gasol now in Toronto. Jonas Valanciunas could steal minutes from Noah, but he isn’t likely to play more than 20 minutes tonight. That could potentially leave 20-25 minutes for Noah in this game. He has been a great rebounder while on the court, as he has recorded 5+ rebounds in 10 of his last 11 games. Over that span, he’s averaging 6.7 rebounds in only 17.4 minutes per game. Noah is averaging 3.0 rebounds in only 9.0 minutes per game against the San Antonio Spurs, and Noah is a near lock for 5+ rebounds in this game. DeMar DeRozan has scored 23+ points in each of his last three games, but he hasn’t been nearly that consistent or success recently. He has scored 22+ points in only five of his last 16 games. Over that span, he’s averaging only 17.9 points per game. DeRozan shot 50% of better from the field in the five games he scored over 21 points, but he’s shooting only 37.0% from the field against the Memphis Grizzlies this season. He’s also averaging only 15.3 shot attempts per game against Memphis this season. The Grizzlies are a team that is going to slow the pace down in this game, limiting DeRozan’s opportunities, and he’ll need an extremely efficient game against a team that he has struggled against throughout the season to hit the over.

Play $50 on DeMar DeRozan UNDER 21.5 points and Joakim Noah OVER 4.5 rebounds to win $116.50 (2.33x)

 

Over Under 2/2 – Utah Jazz/Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry is a player that has the potential to score 30+ points on any given night, but that simply isn’t the most likely scenario. He has scored 27+ points in only two of his last seven games, while averaging 24.1 points per game over that span. He has seen his role in the Golden State Warriors offense decrease with the rest of the team healthy, and his usage rating has dropped from over 30% to around 28% on a nightly basis. He’s also averaging only 16.7 shot attempts per game over his last seven games, although he’s averaging 20.0 shot attempts per game in his first 37 games. Curry isn’t needed the way he was earlier in this season, making the over on this point total extremely risky. Rudy Gobert comes with elite blocking and steal potential. He has recorded 3+ steals and blocks in 11 of his last 16 games. Gobert has also posted four steals and blocks in each of his two games against Golden State this season. While blocks and steals are tricky to predict, Gobert comes with tremendous upside and has proven he can easily exceed value against Golden State.

Play $50 on Stephen Curry UNDER 26.5 points and Rudy Gobert OVER 2.5 steals and blocks to win $105 (2.1x)

 

Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

 

NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.

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