Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (2/4)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.
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|B. Goodwin||D. Bazley||N. Jokic||HOU/SA|
|T. Mann||C. Osman||H. Whiteside||CHI/IND|
|J. Green||R. Covington||R. Williams||BKN/UTA|
|A. Simons||A. Horford||C. Wood||CLE/CHA|
|D. Murray||D. DeRozan||J. Embiid||ATL/TOR|
There are a few clear options at guard tonight. Tre Mann and Brandon Goodwin are the clear options. Mann’s playing bigger minutes with SGA and Aaron Wiggins out. He’s taking on a larger role, and Mann is far too cheap on this slate. Goodwin is also locked into big minutes with Darius Garland injured, and he’s scored 25.75 and 29.75 DK points in his last two games with bigger minutes. Both Mann and Goodwin get plus matchups, and they’re clear options on this slate. You’re also considering the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Dejounte Murray is an elite option and an All-Star snub. If he’s playing against the Houston Rockets, he’s an elite option. Derrick White can also be considered if Murray is starting, although he’ll gain value if the latter is out. Tre Jones will also be thrust into the cash conversation if Murray is out. It’s a situation you have to monitor throughout the day. You can also consider Luka Doncic tonight.
Anfernee Simons is in an interesting spot tonight. He’s been struggling a bit recently, but he gets a plus matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They force opponents to shoot the three against them, which is where Simons is at his best. He comes with tremendous upside, and he’s a great tournament option on this slate. Jalen Green is another player I’m interested in. He comes with plenty of talent, although he’s been absurdly inconsistent throughout his rookie season. He’s scoring dependent, but Green is cheap and locked into big minutes for the Houston Rockets. It’s also an elite matchup. You can consider Josh Giddey here as well. He’s taking on a larger role with SGA out of the lineup. He isn’t going to come cheap, though, and Giddey isn’t a player that’s going to attack the basket throughout an entire game, which adds to his risk. Fred VanVleet, LaMelo Ball, Kyrie Irving, Ayo Dosunmu, and C.J. McCollum are more great options at a loaded spot in GPPs.
Forward’s interesting once again on this slate. Darius Bazley is one of my favorite plays at the moment. He should be locked into bigger minutes because of recent injuries. He’s coming off of a 35.75 DK point performance, and I love his price tag if he’s going to see over 30 minutes once again. Cedi Osman’s coming off of a bad game, scoring roughly 18 DK points in 35 minutes. The key here is that Osman’s played 35 and 38 minutes in his last two games. He gets a better matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, and he’s averaging 0.86 DK points per minute against them this season. Kevin Love’s a player I’m trying to gauge, as he could see a few extra minutes tonight. If that’s the case, he’ll make an elite option for his price tag. Love can easily exceed value in 25-30 minutes, and this isn’t an elite slate for forwards. You can also consider Thad Young, Kenrich Williams, Lu Dort, and Keldon Johnson at forward tonight.
Robert Covington is one of the more interesting plays on this slate. He’s missed 13 consecutive shots over his last two games, but he still scored 38.25 DK points in his last contest. Covington gets a great matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I’ll likely him more if Larry Nance Jr. is ruled out. Al Horford’s been playing bigger minutes in recent games, and he’s performed well on a per-minute basis this season. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes in a great matchup against the Detroit Pistons tonight. I considered DeMar DeRozan in cash games, and I’ll likely shift him there if Zach LaVine is out. He gets a plus matchup against the Indiana Pacers tonight, and they don’t have anyone that will be able to slow down DeRozan in this game. You can also consider Evan Mobley, Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell, and Justin Holiday here.
Once again, center is absolutely loaded. Nikola Jokic is the top option, but he isn’t going to come cheap. He’s dominated the New Orleans Pelicans throughout the season, and I don’t expect tonight to be any different. If he’s playing, Hassan Whiteside, he makes an elite option against the Brooklyn Nets. He hasn’t performed as well as many would expect in terms of fantasy with Rudy Gobert out, but Brooklyn’s an extremely small team, and Whiteside can take advantage of that. If he’s starting, Drew Eubanks can be considered as well. This is my current cash game pool, although there are so many elite options that I may widen it by lock.
With Joel Embiid being nearly as expensive as Nikola Jokic, I prefer him in GPPs rather than cash games. He gets a great matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who don’t have anyone that will be able to defend him in the paint. Christian Wood gets an elite matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who’ve struggled in the paint this season. They’re also dealing with several injuries in the front court. Robert Williams is another player with plenty of upside in a matchup against the Detroit Pistons. Williams comes with double-double potential, and he boasts the ability to contribute in each of the five categories. You can also consider Jusuf Nurkic, Jarrett Allen, Goga Bitadze, and Nikola Vucevic.
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