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Xavier Tillman is as close as it gets to a lock at this total. He has been playing at a high level recently, averaging 14.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 2.4 blocks (33.6 fantasy points) in 31.6 minutes per game over his last five games. Those numbers are inflated because of a recent injury to Nick Ward, who is a focal point of the offense. Ward is expected to return tonight, which will have a major affect on Tillman. In games with Ward healthy, Tillman is averaging 8.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.6 blocks (25.6 fantasy points) in 21.3 minutes per game. This prop is a bit high, even if Ward is ruled out, making it an easy play on the under with him playing. Furthermore, Ohio State has been solid against forwards this year, although they have been far from elite.
Tremont Waters owns an impressive 25.9% usage rating on the season, but that may not be enough to help him hit the over today. This is a matchup specific play, though. This game is set at only 135.5 points, and there is a strong amount of money coming in on the under. Waters has been somewhat inconsistent against Florida this season, as he’s averaging 14.5 points, 1.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.0 steals (25.3 fantasy points) in 35.0 minutes per game. Both of his games against Florida went to overtime, which is unlikely to be the case once again tonight. Waters certainly has the upside to exceed the value here, but it’s a bit high for what should be a defensive battle. There are off-court distractions for Waters and LSU, as well, which could affect him play tonight.
Play $50 on Tremont Waters UNDER 34.4 fantasy points and Xavier Tillman UNDER 34.5 fantasy points to win $125 (2.5x)
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