Welcome to Bales’ Premium PrizePicks – NBA Player Props 2/7! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Power Play
Jonas Valanciunas has caught fire recently. He’s averaging 17.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks (41.3 fantasy points) in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he scored fewer than 25 fantasy points in both games prior to that 5 game stretch. He also scored fewer than 36 fantasy points in 2 of his last 5 games. Valanciunas is an extremely inconsistent option, and he’s expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who feature one of the best defenses in the NBA against centers. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke are also fully healthy, while Valanciunas is dealing with an ankle injury. He’s a player that will see somewhat of limited minutes in a tough matchup with a high total tonight.
Christian Wood has seen a mini breakout in his last 2 games, scoring 35.1 and 34.5 fantasy points in 32 and 34 minutes. He will now be taking on a significantly larger role in the rotation, as the Detroit Pistons traded Andre Drummond at the deadline. Wood will see roughly a 5% increase in usage rating, allowing him to see an uptick in shot attempts each night. He ranked second on the team in rebounding rate (16.7%), trailing only Drummond (26.4%). In other words, Wood’s rate will likely increase, and he’ll see more opportunities for rebounds as a whole. On the season, he’s averaging 1.18 fantasy points per minute, and that number could increase with Drummond in Cleveland. Wood gets an iffy matchup tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but this total strictly reflects his new minutes rather than his new role.
Play 1 unit on Jonas Valanciunas UNDER 36.0 fantasy points and Christian Wood OVER 35.0 fantasy points to win 2.5 units (2.5x)
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