Top Tier: John Wall- You could easily slot Kyle Lowry into this spot given that he’s in the top game of the night, but Wall has been logging so mnay minutes in close games it’s hard for me not to consider him the top play in the top tier. This matchup with the Magic is a really good one, and while the Wizards are favored by eight, I don’t see any way this team is fully capable of blowing someone out. Wall has been playing 38+ minutes in close games and I’m expecting a big game from him tonight.
Mid Tier: Mike Conley- Conley erupted for over 50 fantasy points on Saturday night, and while people may see the Jazz and cringe they are actually bottom-five in defensive efficiency to guards this season. They are scoring more, and playing less defense right now and Conley has taken on a huge offensive role for the Grizzlies this season.
Low Tier: JJ Barea- I don’t think you can just jam in Barea tonight, because they still haven’t shown a willingness to play him alongside DSJ regularly, but with Wesley Matthews out we should see 20-22 minutes minimum for Barea and he is priced extremely cheap on all sites.
Top Tier: Zach LaVine- LaVine is the top shooting guard play tonight once again and it’s not particularly close. I’ve been riding him all season, and he’s done nothing but produce nightly being pretty much the entire Bulls offense. His usage actually climbs even more with Ryan Arcidiacono starting at point guard, and if I have the salary I’m locking in LaVine again tonight.
Mid Tier: Dennis Schroder- If you can’t quite get up to LaVine, Dennis Schroder makes a ton of sense with Russell Westbrook still out, especially on FanDuel. The Phoenix Suns no longer play at fast-pace we were once accustomed to, but they are still a sieve defensively to guards and we know that Schroder takes on a much larger role in the offense with Westy sidelined.
Low Tier: Terrence Ross- If Aaron Gordon happens to be out, I would feel extremely confident in Ross as a punt play. Even if he plays however, I do think he is play as a cheap option. Ross has routinely been seeing 26-30 minutes in non-blowouts this season and his usage rate has skyrocketed to 23% this season, up from just under 17% in 2017.
Top Tier: Kevin Durant- I can’t call Kevin Durant a must play with Draymond Green back playing, but he is still the top overall option if you can afford him. The assist numbers will dip a bit with Green back, but he will still be the main focus of an offense implied for 114.5 points in Vegas.
Mid Tier: Kawhi Leonard- Kawhi Leonard vs Paul George is extremely tough, and I truly think you can play either. I’m going to narrowly lean Leonard tonight given his exceptional matchup with the Pelicans in a game sporting a 231.5 O/U. George obviously runs much more of the offense with Westy of the floor, he saw 19 potential assists in his last game, but Leonard gives you a near $1,000 discount on FanDuel.
Low Tier: TJ Warren- Warren has posted FanDuel point totals of 44 and 43 since being moved into the starting lineup and his minutes have gone through the roof, totaling 41 and 36 in those two games. The matchup isn’t quite as stong as it was in his last games, but I’ll gladly take those minutes for $5,800.
Top Tier: Anthony Davis- AD is a great play against the Raptors tonight, but I won’t call him a must play. He will be easier to fit in on FanDuel naturally given the low-score drop nature of their scoring. I’m assuming Serge Ibaka will see a good amount of time defending Davis and if Nikola Mirotic happens to miss again more shot attempts become available.
Mid Tier: Montrezl Harrell- I’m going back to my guy again tonight against the Warriors, in whats sets up as the perfect game for his playing style. They should need him given the pace of this game and with only a 3.5 point spread I’m expecting 25+ minutes.
Low Tier: Ed Davis- Davis makes the case for a low-score punt play on FanDuel, he’s topped out at 23 minutes this season but the Timberwolves are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, Davis’ exact strength.
Top Tier: Karl-Anthony Towns- We get what feels like it could be a perfect storm for Towns tonight, which has him firmly in play as my top overall play on the slate. He gets my favorite matchup to exploit, a big against the Nets, and he gets to play without Jimmy Butler. If you take Butler off the floor this season, KAT has put up almost 1.5 FPPM, and the usage sees a nice bump as well.
Mid Tier: Jarrett Allen- While Towns should shine offensively tonight, he is not known as a defender and Allen is all the way down to under $6,000. I wish that we would see 30 minutes regularly from Allen, but they should need his size in this matchup and he provides a huge ceiling at this price given his shot blocking ability.
Low Tier: Marcin Gortat- This is extremely gross, I get it, but he minimum-priced and I don’t think we will see much if any at all Boban tonight against the Warriors. The pace and matchups this game presents work much more in favor of Harrell/Gortat and I don’t see how he can’t beat value at this price should he get minutes.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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