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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – Draftkings DFS 1/27/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

 

GuardsForwards
CentersGame Stacks
A. RiversJ. ButlerJ. PoetlSpurs/Bulls
D. FoxT. YoungA. DrummondRockets/Jazz
D. MitchellB. BogdanovicC. CapelaKings/Wolves
L. DoncicPJ TuckerD. DedmonMagic/Heat
T. HerroD. HouseK. TownsMavericks/Thunder

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • It looks like tonight is going to be quite a weird NBA slate where we’re not exactly sure how teams will react to the Kobe news.  Obviously a ton of players were close to the legend and are going to have a mental factor affecting their game tonight.
  • In addition, some players are already ruled out opening up a ton of value options that is going to create a ton of chalk value tonight.
  • We see that already with Westbrook and Harden both likely out tonight.  The Rockets will be UBER chalk and you can easily make the case to play 4 of them in your lineups tonight.  By far the best play of the group will be Austin Rivers but Gordon, House, Tucker, Capela, and even Mclemore will all be in play.
  • Outside of the Rockets, Jakob Poetl is projected to be the starter in place of Aldridge.  At his price, I am LOCKING him into my lineups tonight.
  • Starting off your lineups with Rivers/Poetl will be something you essentially HAVE to do tonight.
  • When analyzing the opportunity cost at positions it becomes clear what my build approach is going to be.  The forward position tonight is very weak compared to guard/center.  Meaning I’ll just want to plug in the top play at the position (today it’s Jimmy Butler) and look to gain my leverage at the guard/center position where there are more options available that we can pivot off of the chalk.
  • At the guard position, Derrick Rose and De’Aaron Fox are both projected to come in under 20% owned.  These are two guys I’ll have my eye on going into lock as I likely will only play one of the two due to their price point.
  • Winning this slate will come down to nailing the value.  People are going to be paying down to lock it all in which makes it easy to get Doncic, KAT, Drummond, etc.  Do your best to maybe take one less value option and more mid-high tier with your spending.  I think by doing this you will be able to differentiate your builds from the rest of the field.
  • Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).

 

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and we are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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