Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/11/19)
Massive 10-game slate tonight. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Trae Young: Trae Young has been playing extremely better of late with his FG% and 3PT% both over 45% over his past nine games. He’s likely going to continue to see his minutes fall between 28 and 32 each night so the upside is a bit capped but his price is adjusted for this factor while leaving a lot of room for upside. Young is a high usage guard who doesn’t just shoot where he is 9th in the NBA in assists per game. The total on this game is massive and we usually see Young finish out games even if there is a blowout which is a possibility tonight. I’m not concerned and believe Young is poised for a massive game.
- D’Angelo Russell: With Dlo not exactly living up to everyone’s expectations as the mega chalk the other night (33.75 DK points), we should see some recency bias in play here where Russell is actually a fantastic play today but should see single digit ownership. Russell owns an insane usage rate with LeVert out and should see big minutes in this game after two games where he played < 25 minutes due to blowouts. If the Nets want a chance in this game against the Raptors, Russell is going to need to have a quality performance and at only 6.9k he offers a ton of upside.
Top GPP Plays:
- Zach LaVine: There is some concern about LaVine’s status for tonight’s game but I can’t see him passing up a matchup against the defending champs that I have a feeling the Bulls desperately want to win. Obviously, the talent discrepancy is massive here but I have a feeling the Bulls keep this one close allowing players on both sides (specifically the Bulls where almost all their players are underpriced) to hit/exceed value. LaVine should see major minutes tonight and his usage really hasn’t taken a big hit with the return of Kris Dunn who has done a great job at sharing the rock. If this game goes as I believe it will (Bulls keeping it close down the stretch) LaVine should post a massive score. Bold call of the night is he drops 30+ real points and goes for over 50 DK points.
- Brandon Ingram: Ingram has quietly been thriving from a fantasy perspective with the absence of LeBron James averaging .08 more FP/min than he had been over the course of the season. Although this is not the best pace against the Jazz, as I’ve noted multiple times throughout my articles this season, the Jazz play at an average pace and have been average on defense. Much different than last season where they played at a paint drying pace and played elite defense. Ingram’s projections are very similair to Joe Ingles but I can’t see a world in which Ingles out scores him tonight. Ingles is projected to have 3x the ownership and while you’re paying a premium for Ingram > Ingles it will pay dividends at the end of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Khris Middleton: With Eric Bledsoe/Giannis downgraded to questionable there is some concern that Middleton will be very chalky tonight. I’m including him anyway as I’m playing him whether Bledsoe is in or out (obviously massive bump if Bledsoe/Giannis is out where Middleton sees a 9.1% usage bump). He ultimately would become the lock of the slate but is someone who has such a high ceiling at his current price point I have to include him in my article whether or not he is “chalky”. NBA is the sport I care the least about ownership %s anyway.
- Rodions Kurucs: Rodi was just ranked the 6th best rookie in the draft per NBA.com. That is pretty impressive that a second round pick would be considered in the lottery had there be a redraft. Rodi has shown impressive scoring upside while being electric on the defensive end consistently providing steals/blocks. If Rodi can combine a solid scoring night with some efficiency on the defensive end he could post a massive game at just 4.1k on Draftkings tonight. The Nets will need all hands on deck if they want to beat the Raptors tonight, Rodi will be a key part.
Top GPP Plays:
- Pascal Siakam: If you guys didn’t know by now you should learn that Pascal Siakam is a #beast. This matchup with the Nets is obviously awesome against a team that struggles with bigs and essentially has no one to match up with Siakam tonight unless they roll out Ed Davis/Allen lineups which they rarely do as it would limit the spacing on the floor. Siakam is priced up to 6.7k but still has a 8x ceiling and no one ever plays him. Passing on him in one of the best matchups you can ask for in a 220+ over/under game would be a mistake. Get exposure.
- Lauri Markkanen: Like I said, I think this game stays oddly close and not only LaVine but also Markkanen will post a massive score tonight. Markkanen priced under 6k is massive considering what kind of ceiling comes with the stretch 5 on a night he should be taking plenty of threes. The matchup is solid, it’s a pace up game, and he gets a pretty high usage rate considering he’s a 4/5. Coming off two cold shooting nights look for Markkanen to bounce back in a big way tonight. Pair him up with LaVine.
Top GPP Plays:
- Brook Lopez: If you’ve seen the clips on Brook Lopez lately you’d see he’s been shooting out of his mind. Lopez is only priced at 4.9k and should see a massive usage bump with Giannis off the court while still projected for single digit ownership. Lopez is now consistently seeing 30+ mpg in the right matchups and he should be in line for a similair workload tonight while seeing a usage bump. He’s got the ability to go for 10x at his price. He could help you take down a tournament tonight if he’s making shots. I’m very surprised he’s not projected to be more popular.
- Joel Embiid: I believe the situation with Embiid could be similair to what we saw with Anthony Davis a couple nights ago where he went off for 78 fantasy points but nobody had him due to lineup construction and the size of the slate. Embiid has that 80 DK point upside and should end up less than 15% owned tonight (potentially even lower). He’s got the 3rd best matchup on the board and has been insane over the course of the past month averaging 1.71 DK points per minute. I’m more than willing to pay 11k for Embiid tonight.
Written By: Robert Viafora