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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown – (10/20/18)

Solid 10-game Saturday slate on our hands tonight!  My article will be a bit shorter today but I’ll be in slack up until lock discussing my thoughts!  In addition, you can access my CORE-Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Tyus Jones

Tyus Jones is one of the most underrated players on the Timberwolves roster.  Which I guess is not saying a lot since basically everyone on the Timberwolves is overrated.  With that being said,  Jimmy Butler is out tonight and should free up some minutes for Jones.  Jones gets a modest amount of minutes but when he is on the floor he usually is pretty efficient and averages around 18% in usage per game. With the expected bump in minutes at similair usage projections, we can expect Jones to hit value with easy at only 3.3k on Draftkings.

Fade: Spencer Dinwiddie

Don’t get me wrong.  I love Spencer Dinwiddie.  He has come out looking better than he was last year where he was a top-3 candidate for most improved player.  At 5.8k in an extremely crowded Nets backcourt, where minutes are scarce and HC Kenny Atkinson doesn’t really like playing guys over 30 minutes, I don’t see the upside there for Dinwiddie at this price tag in GPPs.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: Bradley Beal

This price tag on Bradley Beal is a bit ridiculous and I’m surprised we’re not hearing more talk about him in the industry.  At 6.6k with the type of guaranteed minutes + usage, he’s going to see in a pace up game with Toronto, his ceiling is around 50 DK points. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.

Fade: James Harden

Harden will likely be popular tonight as he usually is but I’m not getting any exposure to the current MVP.  At 11.3k with a ton of mouths to feed on the offense for the Rockets, I can’t see a 6-8x ceiling for Harden tonight. There are a ton of other pieces from this game you can get that provide more value than Harden tonight.

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Caris LeVert

As I mentioned above, Caris LeVert looks like the guys hoped they would get and drafted coming off a pretty serious injury that killed his draft stock.  LeVert is listed as a small forward on Draftkings but sees a ton of time as the team’s primary ball-handler which really does raise his ceiling a ton. LeVert’s increase in skill/ability was touted by players/coaches within the Nets organization in training camp and he is truly poised for a breakout year.  LeVert showcased his abilities on Wednesday posting a 27/4/4 line on 32% usage over 34 minutes and then another 27 point performance in addition to the game winner last night.  LeVert is an up and coming star in the NBA, it would be smart to buy-low this season while you still can.

Fade: Ben Simmons

A pace down game with the Magic who the 76ers will likely blow out.  No three-point attempts from Simmons slightly hurts his ceiling on Draftkings and if he isn’t recording a triple-double I don’t see him hitting value tonight. However, if this game stays close, Simmons does have the upside to break the slate.

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Jared Dudley

The Nets seem to love playing this veteran as he’s starting and getting 30+ minutes per game.  He makes crucial plays on the defensive end that actually helped win the Nets the game last night with the Knicks.  He is a three-point specialist who’s shot has been cold to start the season but will come around.  At 3.3k he’s a lock in all formats.

Fade: Rudy Gay

5.7k for Rudy Gay is insane after what type of minutes we saw Pop give him last season.  He still isn’t eclipsing the 30-minute mark and draws a very tough matchup with a long defensive TrailBlazers frontcourt.  I’m not touching Gay tonight with a 10-foot pole.

Center

Top GPP Play: Bobby Portis

Portis came through for me the other night and I’m high on him again in this one.  His price just hasn’t caught up to the 1.32 FP/minute player he has been this season and I think his production is just getting started.  A versatile big man who can get it done on both sides of the floor.  He offers a ton of upside at only 6.3k on Draftkings tonight.

Fade: Nikola Jokic

Jokic started off the season with a great game of 21/8/5 throwing in a steal and a block.  He still didn’t hit value on Draftkings.  Until this price comes down to the 8.8-9.2k range I can’t consider Jokic in my GPPs.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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