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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/29/18)

We got a 9 game Monday night slate on our hands and feel like this is a pretty decent slate for some NBA DFS.  The Lakers/Timberwolves game will be extremely chalky tonight with its 240 total so you definitely want some pieces from that game in your lineups.  In addition, you can access my CORE-Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Dennis Smith Jr.

DSJ definitely found his shot last night and while if he dropped 27 on a Wednesday/Friday night without NFL going on I believe more people may have taken notice.  That is not the case and Dennis Smith Jr. is projected to be under 10% owned on this slate.  DSJ is seeing minutes and usage similair to that of D’Angelo Russell yet is price about $1,000 cheaper than him.  He’s an amazing play on this slate in GPPs.

 

Fade: Stephen Curry

Curry is definitely on a roll breaking the NBA record for most consecutive games with at least five 3-pointers made.  However, this is the Warriors third road game in the past four nights and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him come out a bit slow/sloppy/tired tonight.  You’re definitely paying his full price above 10k on Draftkings and I just can’t trust him on this slate.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: Khris Middleton

Middleton has been one of the most underrated players in the NBA for quite some time, overshadowed by MVP candidate Giannis.  This season Middleton is averaging 1.25 FP/M which is 3rd for eligible SG’s on this slate behind Steph Curry and DeMar DeRozan.  Both of these guys are priced much higher than Middleton and we need to buy low in this pace up game with the Raptors.  Middleton is an 8k player.

 

Fade: Tim Hardaway Jr.

THJ relies on his shot efficiency in order to hit value night in and night out.  Obviously, that is an extremely volatile stat that averages out over the course of the season but he is extremely prone to “busting”.  Something I think he’ll do tonight against a Nets team he shot just 40% on earlier this season.  The odds that THJ sees the 36% usage rate he did in that game to just hit value is unlikely given his averages in his other games this season is closer to the high 20s rather than high 30s.

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Harrison Barnes

I get that this is a slower paced game with a total that isn’t too high but these Mavericks players are grossly mispriced on Draftkings and we should take advantage on a slate where nobody is looking this direction.  Harrison Barnes has the opportunity to go for 8x tonight at 5.2k against a Spurs team that has really struggled with the SF/PF position since losing Kawhi Leonard.  He’s too cheap.  Play him.

 

Fade: Kevin Durant

Obviously, KD could go off on any given night but similair to Steph Curry I think Steve Kerr will lean on his bench a bit more in this game limiting opportunities for KD to hit his ceiling we need him too to pay off his huge salary.  3 road games in 4 nights is not a positive correlation to more fantasy points and this is a pretty easy fade with some of the other high-tiered players on this slate.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Taj Gibson

Forgotten in this huge total between the Wolves and Lakers could be Taj Gibson who is never going to go for over 50 fantasy points but IMO is a lock for a double double tonight with some major upside at his price if he can throw out some assists and add some steals + blocks.  This is a HUGE game total with lots of points going to be scored.

 

Fade: LeBron James

What is LeBron going to need to do to hit value at his 11.7k price tag?  Answer: A lot.  If you’re playing LeBron you’ll essentially need 30 points and a triple-double for him to hit value.  Is this possible? Yes.  Is this likely? Debateable.  There are a lot of players on this Lakers team involved in the offense and while LeBron has seen his averages spike through the games with players serving suspensions I think his role decreases a bit in the coming weeks.  I still think he’s a 10k+ DK player but 11.7 is getting out of control.  I can’t pay that price unless I’m looking for raw points.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Brook Lopez

Again a ton of these Bucks players, similair to the Mavericks are mispriced on Draftkings.  Brook Lopez is one of them as we’ve seen his price decrease as a result of the blowouts the Bucks have been playing in.  Lopez is going to see 25+ MPG and is about a fantasy point per minute guy.  Raptors have been stingy in the paint this year but Lopez can stretch the floor and shoot from anywhere.  He’s an amazing play at his price.

 

Fade: Hassan Whiteside

Until he gets conditioned or adds a three-point shot I can’t play Hassan Whiteside at this price.  7.7k for a guy who doesn’t play 30 minutes per game is not going to happen on my lineups.  Whiteside has only shot the ball 10 or more times twice this season and I just don’t see his ceiling here in today’s NBA with the type of usage he’s getting.  Fade for me.  If you want to pay up at center look at Randle, Embiid, Jordan, or KAT.

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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