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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/1/18)

Really short 6-game slate on this Thursday so I’m going to try to keep my article pretty concise.  Also, my NFL GPP article will be dropping later tonight!  In addition, you can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Ben Simmons

On a slate where almost everyone will be preferencing Russell Westbrook over Ben Simmons, I’m going to have to get slightly contrarian and take Simmons here in a game where I almost think he’s a safer play compared to Westbrook.  Westbrook recently dropped a 32/4/8 line with 4 steals/blocks and hit value by about 3 DK points.  Ben Simmons does not see the INSANE usage Russell Westbrook does but PACKS on peripherals raising his floor and providing a lower but more consistent ceiling.  I think Simmons is the “safer” option tonight in GPPs even though he’ll carry less ownership.

 

Fade: Damian Lillard

Ok if you think Lillard is going to come out and drop 40 points against the Pelicans you can consider him.  There is no shot he hits value at the 9.9k price tag he’s got tonight.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: E’Twaun Moore

In the past, Moore has been a guy we usually fade as his usage rate was below 10%.  This season, with Rondo out of the picture, we are seeing a more consistent type of play from Moore who has only failed to hit double-digit scoring once this entire season. At around 17% usage playing 35+ minutes per game I love more at this price tag tonight.

 

Fade: JJ Reddick

Not sure if a ton of people are going to be considering Reddick tonight but his recent over-efficient shooting has caused his price to jump up to 5.6k.  The bold call is that this is the highest price tag we get for JJ the rest of his career. Don’t be suckered into this one. He will not hit anywhere close to 6x at this price.

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Gordon Hayward

Hayward’s price has really fallen down a lot now priced at 4.8k on Draftkings.  His usage has been volatile with three games posting usage rates above 20% and three games below 20%.  Hayward’s minutes have been trending up the past three games and I like him to get to at least the 25 DK point mark with upside in the 35 range tonight where the Celtics are implied for over 112 points.

 

Fade: Giannis ABC

Giannis is literally the worst play on this slate.  I don’t think I’ve ever seen a “stud” player rated this low in DFS Karma’s projections.  I’m not sure if it’s from the past two games Giannis has played where the Bucks were involved in blowouts or if the computer is factoring in how tough this defense of the Celtics is (Bucks are 2nd lowest implied team on slate).  At 11.1k don’t even think about it with Westbrook right there.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Julius Randle

Randle has the probable tag and has been letting people down “a bit” of late.  With Anthony Davis out we know Randle has a 50 point ceiling after what he was able to do last year for the Lakers when given the green light.  I believe this is a spot where nobody will want to ply Mirotic and Randle, so the entire crowd just stuffs in Mirotic leaving Randle way under-owned.  This is a great spot for him to smash value even priced up a bit.

Fade: Paul George

Keep in mind every time I fade PG he goes off and hits like 80% of his shots from the field yet when I play him he goes 4-21 and can’t even hit free throws.  But tonight IMO is where we need to pay up at point guard and pay down or in the mid-tier at the other positions.  Just my game theory approach to the slate and I really don’t like PG’s ceiling priced 9k+.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Joel Embiid

Center is EXTREMELY thin today so if you’re not playing the chalk in Willie-Cauley Stein, Joel Embiid is really your only other option.  I’ll probably suck it up and play the chalk in WCS as that is how my roster construction seems to be going at this point but I do think Embiid offers some nice upside at lesser ownership if WCS were to get into foul trouble or find a way to not hit value tonight.  Could be a huge leverage play.

 

Fade: Nikola Jokic

No shot the Cavs keep this game close and Jokic actually doesn’t have that great of a matchup against Tristan THompson and a Cavs front-court that has been better than average defensively this year.  No chance I’m playing Jokic in a game he shouldn’t touch the floor in the 4th.

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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