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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/14/18)

Awesome 12-game slate on our hands tonight.  Really so many ways to go so make sure to hop in the DFS Karma discord to get my full thoughts and core=plays for this slate. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Spencer Dinwiddie

This is one of my top Pt/$ plays on the board and he’s projected for under 10% ownership.  Dinwiddie’s price has been dropping as a result of decreased playing time due to a healthy D’Angelo Russell and emerging star in Caris LeVert.  LeVert is out for at least three months with a dislocated ankle so we should see Dinwiddie step up into his role, similair what he did for DLO last year over the next couple of months.  His price is as if he was still the 3rd string PG on the team and that is just not the case.  With the increased usage and minutes in a pace-up game with Miami, who has struggled against PG’s this season I LOVE Dinwiddie to crush his price tag tonight.

 

Fade: Brandon Ingram

Not sure how many people would consider using Ingram in the PG spot tonight on Draftkings but I am full fading him at his 5.7k price tag on this new look Lakers.  His role is pretty drastically lowered in terms of usage % from towards the end of last season and his minutes really aren’t going to get much higher than 30 as of right now.  This is a horrible matchup in a major pace-down game for the Lakers.  Ingram wouldn’t make any sense on this type of slate.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play:  Gordon Hayward

SG eligible and now seeing around 30 minutes a game while still price around 5k?  Lock!  Hayward is projected to be under 10% owned tonight where ownership should be fairly spread out and this sets up as a game he should easily hit value with that 8x upside we’re looking for in GPPs.  Hayward’s usage has been volatile this season but I believe with the minutes increase he’s now getting the usage will come back to the #2 on this Celtics offense.  Let’s capitalize on this volatility and lock in Hayward at 5.1k today.

 

Fade: Jrue Holiday

Holiday has been putting up some crazy numbers in the peripherals department and I think the odds that his numbers sustain their current rate is very low.  Holiday is now priced up to 8.5k and really needs AD to be ruled out to garner consideration on this slate.  Minnesota has actually been a difficult matchup for guards and they play at a slower pace.  I just don’t see the upside there for Holiday in this game.

 

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play:  Kyle Anderson

Everyone and their mother will be playing MarShon Brooks tonight, including me, but no one is looking to Kyle Anderson who should see an increased role with a slight bump in minutes.  At 4.8k as a much more proven scorer, defender, and fantasy player I’m surprised we’re not seeing any love his way with all the attention at the opportunity opened up in this Memphis SG/SF position.

Fade: Jabari Parker

The times of chasing Jabari Parker are coming to an end for me and I won’t be buying in tonight even with his price down to 5.6k.  His efficiency this season has been putrid and he is not looking like a good NBA player.  He’s presented with a fantastic opportunity every night with high usage and minutes but really never is able to do anything with that given his inefficiencies.  He’s posted six straight games of double-digit scoring so if you want to chase that you can but he has been playing zero defense this year so don’t expect any bonuses your way in terms of steals or blocks.  This severely cripples his upside.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Hollis-Jefferson is a 7k+ player when put in the starting lineup and given a normal allotment of minutes.  He’s been coming off this bench this year s the coach for the Nets insists on playing “stretch-4” Jared Dudley, who has shot under 30% from deep.  Hollis-Jefferson is going to make his way back into the starting lineup and with Jarrett Allen questionable again tonight he has the opportunity for a huge game.  In the game against the Timberwolves, he went off for 36.50 DK points in just 26 minutes of action contributing all across the stat sheet.  This is the type of production RHJ brings to the table as a do-it-all player which significantly raises his ceiling.

Fade: LeBron James

It’s definitely scary putting a guy like LeBron in the fade category given that he has the talent to go off on any given night, but as in football just because a guy is talented, we need the opportunity for that ceiling to be given an increased chance of hitting rather than the opposite which is the category James finds himself in tonight.  As I said with Ingram, this is a major-pace down game for the Lakers.  LeBron’s most recent game where his usage % spiked was actuall against the Blazers where he had a crazy 36.4% usage rate and LeBron failed to reach 50 DK points on route to a Lakers loss.  With the Lakers recent success, LeBron has actually taken a more moderate role in orchestrating this offense.  I think they stick with what has been working as LeBron gets a little less ball dominant which limits his fantasy ceiling.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Jusuf Nurkic

On the other side of this Lakers game, Nurkic finds himself in a major pace-up game in which he crushed value in their latest matchup.  Everyone is always going to come out ready to play against LeBron and the Lakers so pay less attention to Nurkic’s conditioning issues tonight as I believe he’ll see well over his projected 26 minutes tonight.  Ironically in his past 10 games the only time Nurkic played above 30 minutes was his matchup with the Lakers.  He’s going to smash in this spot tonight.

 

Fade: Wendell Carter

The rookie has been incredible this season but his hot start is going to slow down along with his minutes as fatigue catches up to the rookie.  We’re already starting to see his minutes trend down while his price tag is still semi-inflated.  This is a very tough matchup with the Celtics front-court in which the rookie, Carter, should struggle in.  Spend your 5.7k else where on a 12 game slate with so many options.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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