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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/26/18)

The day after Christmas has a ton of NBA games on the schedule. It should be a really good one! Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

 

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Mike Conley: Conley goes under-owned essentially every slate he plays.  At 7.7k he makes a lot of sense as a GPP pivot in this higher point guard tier where his upside exceeds 50 DK points.  This is a pace up game for the Grizzlies in one of the best matchups on the board for opposing guards.  People are going to be scared off of the Grizzlies and Conley tonight because of the total so we should expect to see single-digit ownership in a matchup Conley can dominate.
  2. Reggie Jackson: Jackson quietly has been an extremely efficient FP/min scorer over the course of the last month and as a result has seen his playing time creep upwards.  Tonight Jackson will get John Wall defense, which essentially is just Wall standing in front of him.  I’m hoping the clip of Wall just standing in place watching the opposing offense run a play.  Jackson should see around 30 minutes tonight in which 6-8x is a real possibility.
  3. DJ Augustin: Augustin is the starter for the Magic and while he’s not the most explosive point guard we’ve ever seen he does get the job done from 3-point range and contributes with assists.  At just 4.2k tonight we’ve seen a ceiling type game from Augustin where he has 10x potential this cheap.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Josh Richardson: Although Josh Richardson is not a guy I love to play in NBA DFS, more specifically in GPP’s is because of his usually very high floor but capped ceiling.  This is not the case tonight where his price has come down 6.7k, a point where he not only provides a safe floor that won’t hurt any of your lineups but he has a solid ceiling at this price.  With ownership fairly spread out only a 10-game slate he provides a ton of stability and upside to lineups in all formats and makes for one of my favorite plays on the slate.
  2. Terrance Ross:  Terrance Ross is another guy I usually don’t target often but with usage opening up on this Magic team and Ross in line for a usage rate over 20% tonight while playing his normal allotment of minutes he is a very sharp play at just 4.2k.  His price has decreased over this short run where his role has expanded but he has been shooting extremely inefficiently which is bound to change.  If we can catch Ross on a solid shooting night he has the potential for 30 DK points.  A fantastic value play.

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Bogdan Bogdanovic: Bogdan always comes with a very high ceiling that he flashes at times. Coming off a 40+ DK point outing, Bogdan is poised potentially for another big game at just 5.5k.  The matchup is not exactly ideal but the pace in this game is fantastic for a high-scoring game from Bogdanovic with a 238 total on this game.  You’re going to need some pieces from this game to take a tournament down tonight and Bogdan is my favorite piece.
  2. Trey Lyles: Lyles is obviously restricted by his minutes but this is factored into his price where he’s just 3.9k on Draftkings.  Coming into the season we figured Lyles would be a larger part of this rotation but it just hasn’t worked out that way.  Lyles is an extremely good FP/min scorer while on the floor and actually gets a positive matchup against an undersized Spurs team.  If you’re looking for some cheap value at SF Lyles is your guy.

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Montrezl Harrell: I’m very surprised we’re not seeing Harrell priced higher + projected for higher ownership.  Just a couple weeks ago Harrell was priced at 7.7k.  Today we get him 2k cheaper in the best possible matchup we could ask for in the game with the highest total. Harrell is a PF who sees a high usage rate on the floor which contributes to his massive ceiling.  Although his minutes have been a bit volatile over the last two weeks (likely leading to his decrease in price), he is ranked 3rd on the slate in player efficiency rating at 24.73 and is poised for an overall huge game.  It’s a mistake if he’s not over 20% owned which I don’t think he will be.
  2. John Collins: Pace down game and the probable tag is going to scare a lot of people off of Collins who is looking like one of the best players out of his draft.  Collins is insanely effective from a fantasy perspective, where he is top five on the slate in this position averaging 1.27 FP/min over the course of the last month.  It is a toss-up between Randle and Collins as to who will post a higher score tonight as they profile so similair but I’m just going to take the $300 discount.
  3. Thomas Bryant: Thomas Bryant had a career game the other night in a triple OT game against the Suns.  You have to imagine this 51 DK point game is going to earn him some extra minutes on the floor.  Notably, Bryant hasn’t contributed any steals or blocks over his last two games which has held back his scores from skyrocketing.  If Bryant can keep doing what he has been and have a few steals/blocks come his way he’ll make for a nice 7x at 4k on Draftkings tonight.

 

 

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. DeAndre Jordan: Potentially the lock of the slate on Draftkings right?  This price is just incredible in a game Jordan will need to play HEAVY minutes to matchup up with the Pelicans bigs.  A double-double seems close to a lock for Jordan tonight, and while I don’t love targeting Anthony Davis on the defensive end, we really don’t need Jordan to do that much scoring to post a significant GPP score.  If he has a solid game in the paint that’s a plus.
  2. Domantas Sabonis: Sabonis is a guy who just deserves more minutes.  I’m not sure whether his stamina is the reason he usually doesn’t top 30 per game but something has to change if the Pacers want to take it to the next level.  Sabonis has been averaging over 1.3 FP/min this entire season and is essentially as consistent as they come while he’s on the floor he just doesn’t get heavy minutes. The Hawks play pretty big at PF/C so I can see Sabonis getting some extra minutes in the rotation tonight in which would make him an amazing GPP play given his ceiling.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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